For fear of increasing Moscow's influence on the West
The Russian attack on Ukraine pushes America to speed up the agreement with Iran
The Iranian nuclear negotiations in Vienna have reached the final and most important stages.
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Lavrov warned that the latest sanctions against Russia could undermine the final negotiations if exceptions for trade between Russia and Iran are not issued.
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Blinken dismissed Russia's new demands as "out of touch" from the agreement.
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Valley College*
It seems that the Russian military attack on Ukraine has repercussions for Iran, the most important of which is what affects the status of nuclear negotiations and the energy market.
With the nuclear negotiations in Vienna reaching the final and most important stages, a return to the JCPOA agreement will lead to the lifting of the "maximum pressure" sanctions that were imposed on Iran under the administration of former President Donald Trump.
Fear of the crisis spreading to Vienna
After 10 months of incessant negotiations between representatives of Iran and China, Russia, the United States, Britain, France and Germany, Iranian and American officials have indicated that the negotiations are nearing conclusion.
On February 16, the Iranian nuclear negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani, tweeted, “We are getting closer than ever to the agreement.” State Department spokesman Ned Price said, echoing Kani’s optimistic comments, finally, “We are now in the middle of the final stages of difficult negotiations.” .
The main fears, in such circumstances, remain that the effects of the differences between Russia and the West as a result of the Ukrainian crisis will extend to the Iranian nuclear negotiations, which may prevent the participating parties from agreeing to the final text of the agreement.
US experts, Jonathan Theron and Gulnar Motivali of Bloomberg Media, warn that the risks of a Russian attack on Ukraine "present diplomacy for not agreeing on the Iran nuclear deal as the last hurdle", but comments from Russian and US officials suggest that negotiations will be able to resolve the issue. Proceed without hindrance.
The two issues are not related
The Russian envoy for nuclear negotiations in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, said that there is no "relationship" between "Iran and Ukraine" in Russian foreign policy.
And he published several times pictures of his meetings with his American counterpart, Rob Malley, to emphasize cooperation between Russia and the United States in Vienna.
Indeed, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken told CBS television on March 6 that US sanctions against Russia "have nothing to do with the Iran nuclear agreement," adding that the two issues were "unrelated." A White House spokeswoman said, Jane Psaki, Russia continues to participate in the nuclear negotiations with Iran.
However, there are many concerns about the repercussions of the Ukrainian crisis on the Iranian nuclear negotiations.
Lavrov demands a guarantee
These concerns were recently heightened when Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned that the latest Western sanctions against Russia could undermine the final negotiations, if exceptions are not issued for trade between Russia and Iran.
"We want an answer... We need a guarantee that these sanctions will not, in any way, affect the system of economic trade and investment relations stipulated in the nuclear agreement," Lavrov said. This Russian position was widely criticized within Iran.
"It is not entirely clear what the Russians mean," said Mohammad Marandi, an adviser to the Iranian negotiating team in Vienna.
And whether it is related to the actual implementation of the Iran nuclear agreement, especially with regard to the Iranian nuclear program itself, is closely related, because the Russians play a role in resolving this issue.
They will deal with enriched uranium and other elements of the nuclear program.
We are still waiting for clarifications.”
Iranian criticism of Russia
In contrast to the Russian demand, the spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Minister, Saeed Khatibzadeh, indicated that the negotiating table, not the media interviews, is the place where concerns should be raised.
Then, on March 7, the Russian and Iranian foreign ministers had a phone conversation and discussed the possible effects of the Ukraine crisis on the Vienna negotiations.
The reactions and criticisms were more visible and sharper in the Iranian media.
Many accused Moscow of using Tehran to increase its influence on the West and called for direct negotiations between Iran and the United States in Vienna.
On the other hand, US Secretary of State Blinken dismissed Russia's new demands as "out of touch" from the agreement.
But undoubtedly after Russia's military attack on Ukraine, the United States wants to quickly conclude the nuclear negotiations with Iran.
There are six reasons for this renewed sense of urgency.
Six reasons
The first of these is that the West is concerned that as long as the war in Ukraine continues, Moscow will use the nuclear negotiations to enhance its influence.
In this case, new obstacles will be added to the negotiations, complicating the process of reaching a final agreement.
Second, the Biden administration has faced significant criticism for its foreign policy toward Afghanistan and Ukraine.
Accordingly, it is in the administration's interest to achieve significant political success in foreign policy by resolving the Iranian nuclear issue.
Especially, at a time when the “Comprehensive Joint Action Plan” is a legacy of the administration of former President Barack Obama, returning to the agreement will send a clear message to the Republicans, especially former President Donald Trump and his companions.
Third, the conclusion of the nuclear negotiations with Iran will allow the West to focus more on confronting Russia.
In this regard, the West believes that the continuation of the nuclear negotiations is in Russia's interest.
Fourth, the failure of nuclear negotiations with Iran and the continued imposition of sanctions on it would bring Tehran closer to Russia, which has faced widespread Western sanctions in recent weeks.
Under these circumstances, Russia could cancel some sanctions against Iran and cooperate more with it, which is not in the interest of the West.
For this reason, some analysts inside Iran point out that if the nuclear negotiations fail, Western sanctions against Russia will likely push Moscow to further ignore the consequences of violating US sanctions in dealing with Iran.
Fifth, reaching an agreement in Vienna will help stabilize the Persian Gulf, where US sanctions and the expansion of Iranian nuclear activities have increased tension and fueled proxy wars in recent months.
But it is the ongoing war in Europe that is overshadowing the efforts being made for the nuclear deal.
Given that stability in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf will allow the West to focus more on confronting Russia, the West has every incentive to speed up the conclusion of the nuclear negotiations in Vienna.
Sixth and last, oil prices reached more than $100 a barrel after the Russian military attack on Ukraine.
With this in mind, a conclusion to the nuclear negotiations with Iran and the lifting of US sanctions will allow Iran to return to the global oil market.
Given that Iran was one of the largest producers of crude oil in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) prior to the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement, its return to the market could reduce the price of a barrel of oil.
Many expect that Iran can increase the amount of oil exported by about one million barrels per day if sanctions are lifted.
Indeed, the Iranians now have quantities of oil waiting to be exported.
Accordingly, reaching an agreement in Vienna and lifting sanctions could help control the oil market.
Although it does not appear that Russia has become interested in comprehensively undermining the Iran nuclear agreement, prolonging the negotiations would serve Russia's interest by giving it leverage over the West.
But the United States and its partners in Vienna will be eager to bring the Iran nuclear deal to an end quickly.
• The West is concerned that as long as the war in Ukraine continues, Moscow will use the nuclear negotiations to enhance its influence. In this case, new obstacles will be added to the negotiations, complicating the process of reaching a final agreement.
• It is feared that the effects of the differences between Russia and the West as a result of the Ukrainian crisis will extend to the Iranian nuclear negotiations, which might prevent the participating parties from agreeing to the final text of the agreement.
• The failure of nuclear negotiations with Iran and the continued imposition of sanctions on it would bring Tehran closer to Russia, which has faced Western sanctions on a large scale in recent weeks. Under these circumstances, Russia could cancel some sanctions against Iran and cooperate more with it.
Vali Kalig ■ Iranian writer
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