Five months after the early legislative elections in Iraq, and after recent months witnessed several attempts to dismantle the political situation, the past two days witnessed new surprises, represented by the call of the leader of the Sadrist movement Muqtada al-Sadr with the leader of the State of Law coalition in Iraq, former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, and the two parties discussed the political situation in the country with a presentation The name of Iraq's ambassador to Britain, Jaafar al-Sadr, is a candidate for the post of prime minister.
The inter-Shiite differences were represented in the Sadrist movement’s refusal, which won 74 parliamentary seats, to introduce the State of Law coalition led by al-Maliki (32 seats) to the next Iraqi government, considering him his fiercest opponent with pledges to open the files of the fall of Mosul in the hands of the Islamic State and the Speicher massacre, two files that occurred during the Maliki government.
In light of this sudden shift in the Iraqi political situation, many questions arise about the reasons that led to this sudden rapprochement between al-Sadr and al-Maliki and its relationship to the tripartite alliance that includes the Sadrist Movement, the Sunni Sovereignty Alliance, the Kurdistan Democratic Party, and the movement’s quest to form a national majority government, which al-Sadr has long emphasized. .
Al-Sadr (right) made a phone call to al-Maliki on Thursday and discussed for the first time the government formation crisis (agencies)
There are many scenarios that observers see. There are those who believe that the leader of the Sadrist movement was subjected to great pressure during the last period, which led him to this move towards al-Maliki, and this is according to what the political researcher Ghanem al-Abed sees.
Al-Abed continues in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net that Al-Sadr may have been subjected to pressure and direct intervention by the Iranian leader, Ali Khamenei, who asked Al-Sadr to open up to the forces of the coordination framework and to form a consensual majority government, which came simultaneously, according to Al-Abed, with Khamenei's statement that Iran will not give up its influence The region will not give up its defensive capabilities, which ultimately led to Al-Sadr’s contact with Al-Maliki and the rest of the Triple Alliance.
For his part, Iraqi journalist Raed Al-Mamouri believes that the great pressures that Al-Sadr and his allies in the Triple Alliance have been subjected to, have become clear that the other blocs will not remain silent about their exclusion from the government cabinet.
Al-Maamouri added in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net that the pressures were varied, including the pressure of the Federal Court and the exclusion of the Kurdistan Democratic candidate Hoshyar Zebari from the presidential race, in addition to the fact that there are clear messages from the coordination framework that he will not allow the formation of a government that is not part of it.
Al-Tamimi pointed out that the Sadrist movement called from the beginning for the entry of parties into the coordination framework of the coalition (Al-Jazeera Net)
The fate of the Triple Alliance
For his part, a political researcher close to the Sadrist movement, Mujahid al-Tamimi, believes that the tripartite alliance is still coherent, and that the movement called from the beginning for the entry of parties into the coordination framework of the alliance. The dilemma of choosing the President of the Republic and then the Prime Minister.
He continued in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net that despite the two parties' communication, the problems between them have not been resolved so far, and that the coordination framework did not express approval to put forward the name of Jaafar Al-Sadr to the presidency of the Council of Ministers, believing that the upcoming days' discussions may lead to what is new, especially if it is agreed upon. The two parties decided to name the largest bloc, which is still considered the real node to proceed with forming the next government, as he put it.
On the Kurdish side, political researcher Muhammad Zangana sees in his interview with Al Jazeera Net that the tripartite alliance is still coherent and that the Sadrist movement knows very well that the Kurdistan Democratic Party cannot turn against any alliance it has previously entered into, according to Zangana.
Regarding al-Sadr’s rapprochement with al-Maliki as a result of differences with the Kurdistan Democratic Party over the region’s oil and gas law, which was invalidated by the Federal Supreme Court, Zangana explained that the court’s decision has not yet entered into force, given that the parliament of the region has not adopted the Federal Court’s decision, and that there are many indications of the work of The court and its composition, according to Zangana.
Al-Moussawi considered that the tripartite alliance between Sadr, sovereignty and the Kurdistan Democratic Party had reached a dead end (Al-Jazeera Net)
Federal Court pressure
On the other hand, the director of the Political Decision Center Haider al-Moussawi believes that the tripartite alliance between al-Sadr, sovereignty and the Kurdistan Democratic Party has reached a dead end after the recent Federal Court decision that the session to choose the president of the republic requires the presence of 220 deputies under the dome of Parliament, which is not owned by the tripartite alliance, which does not exceed The number of parliamentary seats is 168 deputies, pointing out that this has translated into real differences within the tripartite alliance, according to Al-Moussawi.
He continues to Al-Jazeera Net that the communication between Al-Sadr and Al-Maliki was mediated by external and internal mediation, and that the tripartite alliance realized that it was not possible to form a coalition government or a majority, given that any political bloc did not have a comfortable number of seats to form a government.
Al-Moussawi added that the biggest knot that is still going on is the nomination of the next prime minister, noting that although Jaafar al-Sadr is accepted by both parties, the dilemma lies in the party that will nominate him, which means the problem of naming the largest bloc and the framework's desire to jointly name the prime minister. According to Moussaoui.
Al-Maamouri considered that Al-Sadr and his allies were under great pressure to reach an understanding with the coordination framework in forming the government (Al-Jazeera Net)
The problem of the President of the Republic
Another analysis of the sudden rapprochement between al-Sadr and al-Maliki lies in the fact that the Kurdistan Democratic Party realized that the Sadrist movement is not able to rein in the decisions of the Federal Court regarding the Kurdish oil and gas law and exclude candidate Hoshyar Zebari from running for the presidency, according to al-Moussawi.
Al-Moussawi believes that the statements of some leaders from the Democratic Party about the possibility of changing the compass of their alliances may be behind the sudden opening between the Sadrist movement and the State of Law coalition, in addition to the fact that the Sunni Sovereignty Alliance has become aware that the idea of a national majority government is not feasible in light of the presence of the equation of arms inside Iraq and the interventions Regional and international, which led to the Sovereignty Alliance heading towards mediation attempts between the Sadrist movement and the coordination framework, which actually began behind the scenes about 4 weeks ago, according to Al-Moussawi’s assertions.
Zangana believes that the rapprochement between the components of the Shiite house was an initiative of the Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani (Al Jazeera Net)
International and regional pressures
There are many analyzes that explain the rapprochement between the components of the Shiite house, especially since the details are still vague and awaiting the internal meeting that will be held by the coordination framework while waiting for its results that will lead to another meeting with the Sadrist movement and the components of the Triple Alliance.
From the Kurdish side, and in analyzing the current political situation, it seems that the Kurdish political researcher who is close to the Kurdistan Democratic Party, Muhammad Zangana, has another opinion, as he sees that the rapprochement between the components of the Shiite house was initiated by the Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani about two months ago, and she was talking about Nuri al-Maliki assuming the position of Vice President of the Republic.
In his speech to Al Jazeera Net, Zangana believes that this rapprochement came after fears of developments that he described as "unwelcome" as a result of the current regional and international situation, pointing out that this rapprochement was expected and that the coordination framework is subject to disintegration after the rapprochement of Al-Sadr and Al-Maliki and the possibility that the rest of the parties to the framework would not obtain An important role in the next government.
Al-Abed suggested that the next government would be consensual, similar to previous governments (Al-Jazeera Net)
Majority or consensual government?
With regard to the formula that the next government will be in, Zangana explained that the logic was to form a national majority government, but the pressures refuted this idea with the allied parties handing over the fait accompli as a result of foreign interventions and the presence of an armed opposition that could cause what he described as "sabotaging the political process." .
Zangana indicated that Iraq is at a crossroads and that the influential Shiite parties are fighting for power, pointing out that, according to the recent rapprochement, the chances of Jaafar al-Sadr to assume the position of prime minister have become great, while not excluding the outgoing Prime Minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi.
In this direction, political researcher Ghanem al-Abed goes, who believes that direct Iranian pressure has played its role through a reconciliation agreement between al-Sadr and al-Maliki, albeit temporarily, according to al-Abed, indicating that the rivalry between the two parties is still ongoing and that it may return to the fore in any new dispute that erupts.
He concluded that the next government will be absolutely consensual as in previous governments, and that all the reform slogans raised by the Sadrist movement after the election results appeared are no longer feasible.Keywords: