If Russians and Ukrainians have said they are "ready" to discuss in Turkey the safety of nuclear sites, the situation is "very serious", commented Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), “and we have to go fast”.
But there is no binding framework to ensure the safety of nuclear installations in the event of war.
The IAEA does not have the power to implement sanctions.
“It does not have a real mandate from the point of view of safety”, explains Roland Desbordes, spokesperson for the Commission for Independent Research and Information on Radioactivity (Criirad).
It is a race against the clock in which the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is engaged.
To avoid an accident on the nuclear sites in Ukraine, in particular those of Chernobyl and the Zaporozhye power plant controlled by Russian forces, Rafael Grossi, its director general, met separately with the Russian Foreign Ministers Sergei Lavrov and Ukrainian Dmytro Kuleba, on March 10 in Antalya, Turkey.
First positive step: Russians and Ukrainians said they were “ready” to discuss.
The IAEA explains that it is a matter of developing a framework to be able to provide either technical advice, or participate in the proper functioning of the sites or consider the presence of the Agency's experts on site.
Because the situation is “very serious”, commented Rafael Grossi, “and we must move quickly”.
Kiev "lost all communication" with the Chernobyl power plant, the agency said.
On Wednesday, there was no more electricity on the site, the emergency generators, running on diesel, were activated and the power has since been restored.
The staff, more than 200 technicians and guards, has not been relieved for two weeks.
At the Zaporozhye power plant, which suffered artillery strikes on March 4, causing a fire in the training premises, "it is currently not possible to deliver the necessary spare parts", indicated Rafael Grossi.
Specialized personnel cannot carry out the planned repairs.
The interruption of the transmission of data from the monitoring beacons of nuclear materials and activities on this site is also worrying, as at Chernobyl.
“Gradually, we are losing a large amount of information,” lamented the director general of the Agency.
“A scenario that was never imagined”
But what can the IAEA really do?
As Rafael Grossi said, proposing to go to Chernobyl for a Russian-Ukrainian meeting, “it is outside my mandate”.
The Agency, founded in 1957 and attached to the United Nations Organization (UN), aims to promote civil nuclear power and to control the non-proliferation of military nuclear power, hence its intervention in the Iranian file. .
What the invasion of Ukraine shows is that there is no binding framework to ensure the safety of nuclear facilities in the event of war.
“The scenario we have before us is unprecedented and has never been imagined, including by the IAEA, believes Roland Desbordes, spokesperson for the Commission for Independent Research and Information on Radioactivity (Criirad).
She should have anticipated.
»
“His real power is a power of influence”
In 2009, however, the IAEA had adopted a decision according to which "any attack or threat of attack against nuclear installations intended for peaceful purposes constitutes a violation of the principles of the Charter of the United Nations, international law and the Statute of the Agency”.
But the latter does not have the power to implement sanctions.
“From the point of view of safety, the IAEA does not have a real mandate, it says: 'we will have to take an interest, etc.'.
These are wishes,” adds Roland Desbordes.
"Her real power is a power of influence, abounds Patrice Boucheret, director of the observatory of armaments, because she has no power of constraints in relation to Ukraine, Russia and the issues of security.
It has a concern for warning, but it does not have a specific mandate that would allow it to intervene in a concrete way.
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“There must be an agreement between Russia and Ukraine”
As Ukraine has already requested, it can provide assistance to the country that requests it.
But as it is a war zone, with two sites under the control of the Russian army, "there must be an agreement between Russia and Ukraine so that IAEA teams can intervene", emphasizes Patrice Boucheret.
Since the beginning of the war, the Agency has repeated that seven pillars are "indispensable" to ensure nuclear safety.
Many have since been 'compromised', such as having reliable communication, effective radiation monitoring systems, secure power supply and, above all, staff who can make decisions without pressure.
The problem of the UN Security Council
“These pillars are self-restraining, explains Patrice Boucheret.
Each country must implement them.
The system of sanctions in case of non-compliance goes through the UN Security Council, with permanent members who have the right of veto, such as Russia.
Thus, any measure proposed therein to impose constraints could be blocked.
“Russia says it is not going to endanger the safety of the power plants, but that is declaratory.
In practice, there are gears that make us in this situation, ”continues the director of the observatory of armaments.
Nuclear safety remains the responsibility of each country.
“The IAEA does not have police power, like the nuclear policeman in France, adds Roland Desbordes.
There should be a supranational power.
Patrice Boucheret instead imagines a system of sanctions that would not depend on the Security Council, but rather on the international criminal court or an independent judicial system.
When there is a conflict between two nations, the IAEA cannot act, this is a glaring example.
It could have been his role, but it may not be too late, ”hopes Roland Desbordes.
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