The West must act now to stop the massacres
Ukraine's resistance to Russian invasion increases NATO's danger
One of the anti-war demonstrations that swept many countries around the world, in Santiago, the capital of Chile.
AFP
The West seems united towards Russia so far.
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Ukrainians receive arms to defend their country.
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As long as the will to fight exists, soldiers and citizens of Ukraine can hope to wear down the Russian invaders, and even repel them;
But their dilemma is terrible.
And as Vladimir Putin's bombardment grows more barbaric and indiscriminate, the human cost of resistance increases daily.
And if the Ukrainians hold out, will the Western powers - too late - come to their rescue?
Time is not on the Russian president's side. The loss of life is increasing, and his blitzkrieg has not succeeded.
His soldiers are reportedly frustrated, his war machine may malfunction, the war ravages Russia's economy, protests at home reflect new political weakness, and war crimes prosecutors in The Hague are considering the possibility of prosecuting Putin.
False victory exit
For any rational leader, an immediate ceasefire, accompanied by a false claim of victory, would be a clear way out, but logic and reason play no role in Putin's "thinking".
This disaster was recalled in Iraq in 2003, and it turned out that the man whom Donald Trump calls a “genius” is not.
To avoid defeat, the Ukrainian resistance forces will need the West's continued long-term military, logistical, financial and intelligence support.
Will the allies, out of Afghanistan, continue their course this time?
Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, wants immediate membership in the European Union, a demand welcomed in the European Parliament last week, but he won't get it. Kyiv is demanding a NATO-controlled no-fly zone to help stop the brutal bombing of cities like Mariupol and Kharkiv. This didn't happen, either.
open support
The people of Ukraine are determined to fight, and it is impossible not to admire them, but it is also impossible, or so it seems, according to Western leaders;
protect them from mass murder.
This courage underscores the heavy responsibility of Western governments. Britain and the United States, in particular, encouraged resistance, and sent missiles and deadly weapons. To raise the stakes, Boris Johnson and Joe Biden portray the war as a specific struggle between freedom and tyranny;
And between democracy and authoritarianism, this is not the kind of war we can lose.
Most European countries, plus Australia, Japan, Canada and others, pledged open support, too.
For the first time, the European Union will supply the Ukrainians with weapons, and all this is very exciting, perhaps somewhat suspicious.
Should Ukrainians trust these promises?
What if the war lasted for five or 10 years, which is unusual for such conflicts?
Fomenting a seemingly endless, destabilizing rebellion on a large scale will require grit and fortitude in London and other capitals.
Few Western politicians, looking forward to the upcoming elections, aspire to such qualities, for example, the current German electorate will continue to be irritated more by the effect of higher bills and taxes to pay for non-Russian gas, and dramatically increased defense spending.
How long will Biden remain involved if the crisis turns into a war of attrition?
He may be a lame duck after the November midterm elections. Potential alternatives to 2024, such as Trump, have a very different view of NATO and Russia. The persistence and reliability of public and political support for Ukraine is one thing. Another way is how to meet the resistance's need for a constant flow of arms. Aid, staging points and safe havens outside Ukraine.
protracted wars
It is very likely that the displaced fighters, as well as the European "foreign legion", who launch attacks on the occupiers, will seek bases in the neighboring NATO member states, and we recall how the mujahideen in Afghanistan fought the Red Army, and later the "Taliban", who fought NATO: They work from Pakistan.
Cross-border wars will inevitably entice the Allies, and Putin will view them not as a product of uncollapsed Ukrainian nationalism, but as a result of the regime change planned by the United States, and if, over time, Russia continues to incur heavy losses to the Western-backed resistance. , Putin will take the war to the West, and it is precisely this dangerous escalation that Biden and NATO say they are intent on avoiding, and that presumably justifies their rejection of the no-fly zone.
It is the nightmare scenario of the "third world war", which the British Defense Secretary, Ben Wallace, warned of.
But how do we get rid of her ghost?
It is also uncertain whether the West will be able to maintain the extraordinary unity that Biden hailed in his State of the Union address a few days ago, and the European Union is proud of its unified stance and tough sanctions package.
Gaps and disagreements
But there are still significant gaps and internal disagreements;
Russian oil and gas are still flowing, there are huge loopholes in the banking embargo, and even the best sanctions regimes in place are collapsing over time, and although initially welcome by the European Union, the expected massive increases in refugee numbers, if the war continues, will exacerbate existing tensions in Europe and the United Kingdom.
Concerns are growing, too, that Putin will continue to threaten other former Soviet republics, Biden predicts, and the argument goes as follows: Ukraine is already lost, unfortunately, and it is better to focus on ensuring that the Baltic republics and similarly weak states do not go in the same direction.
The irony is that the more successful and prolonged Ukraine's resistance, the greater the risks to NATO. Yet, if, by supporting it, the Allies cannot, in the end, avoid being drawn into conflict with Russia, why delay the inevitable?
In other words;
Instead of letting the fighting and the Ukrainians face their fate, and eventually abandoning them;
Western democracies should put their combat air forces on alert, announce their intent to enforce a no-fly zone, and call on the Kremlin to stop the killings.
Putin's killing of innocents is intolerable, and yet we have to watch.
Will the West fight to the last Ukrainian?
Or will he stand up and fight for himself?
• The current German electorate will continue to be angered by the war, more than the effect of higher bills and taxes to pay for non-Russian gas, and a massive increase in defense spending.
• Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelensky, wants immediate membership in the European Union. This demand was welcomed in the European Parliament last week, but he will not get his wish. Kyiv claims a NATO-controlled no-fly zone, which has not happened, either.
Simon Tisdale ■ Political Analyst
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