One has become "a pariah" on the international scene since his invasion of Ukraine, the other has suffered the wrath of the West since a military coup on October 25: Russia and Sudan seem to be in good way to resuscitate a military base project offering the Russians strategic access to the Red Sea.

On February 23, on the eve of the launch by Vladimir Putin of the "special operation" in Ukraine, a Sudanese delegation, led by the number 2 of the regime, General Mohammed Hamdane Daglo, known as Hemedti, was received in Moscow.

For eight days, General Daglo, leader of the formidable paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (FSR), met with numerous Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

"If a country wants a base on our coasts, that this base satisfies our interests and does not threaten our security, whether Russian or otherwise, we will cooperate," he told the press on his return from Russia. .

The Sudanese state news agency, Suna, also explained that the two countries had agreed to revive all previous economic, diplomatic, political and security agreements.

The coup reshuffles the cards

This Russian naval base project in Sudan actually dates back to 2017. Vladimir Putin and the autocrat Omar Al-Bashir had signed an agreement stipulating that Moscow would obtain a twenty-five-year lease to build a base in Port-Sudan, the main country port.

It was to accommodate 300 men and up to four warships.

But with the fall of Omar El-Bashir in 2019 and his replacement by a power shared between civilians and soldiers, the project had been put on hold.

Especially since Khartoum has come closer during this period of democratic transition to Western chancelleries.

The country was removed from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, benefited from debt rescheduling and massive economic support from the United States.

However, General Al-Burhane's coup in October 2021 and the return of military-Islamist power have reshuffled the cards, recreating favorable conditions for enhanced cooperation with Russia.

If this project is completed, it would be the first Russian military base in Africa since the collapse of the USSR.

"But for the moment, there are only words and no work on the port has been launched", tempers the historian Gérard Prunier, specialist in East Africa, joined by France 24, who predicts however, an accelerated rapprochement between the two countries.

Wagner, henchmen for Hemedti

For the Russians, the interest of a naval base in Sudan is highly strategic.

A base on the Red Sea gives direct access to the warm seas "which will thus potentially be a point of support of choice for Russian naval forces for the Middle East and the East African coast", notes Arnaud Peyronnet of the Strategic Observatory. of the Mediterranean and the Middle East.

The objective would also be to facilitate the extraction of gold, rare earths and other resources controlled by Hemedti's FSR and the Sudanese army, whose control is almost total over all sectors of the economy.

The latter have for several years maintained links with the Kremlin and its armed wing on the continent: the private Wagner militia.

"In Sudan, Wagner's men are tightly controlled by Hemedti who uses them as security guards on his illegal gold mines," says Gérard Prunier.

Already under Omar al-Bashir, agreements had been signed between companies linked to Evgeny Prigozhin, the Kremlin's henchman in Africa through his links with Wagner, including M Invest and its Sudanese subsidiary Meroe Gold.

Prigozhin had been subject to sanctions in July 2020 by the United States which accused him of “exploiting the natural resources of Sudan for his personal enrichment”.

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This presence of the Wagner group in Sudan is more generally part of Vladimir Putin's strategy in Africa.

A strategy that consists of linking up with countries in a phase of political transition, such as the Central African Republic, Libya or even Mali.

America's concern  

According to the Wall Street Journal, the prospect of seeing a Russian naval base in Sudan is causing growing concern among US military officials.

Last year, General Stephen Townsend, head of the military command in Africa, had already assured during a hearing before the senators that this project was a major concern for the United States.

Faced with this rapprochement, Westerners find themselves faced with a dilemma.

"With our sanctions, we are simply offering Sudan on a platter to the Russians," said a diplomat quoted by AFP.

"The generals have survived in autarky under the embargo against Bashir, so our threats carry little weight."

Since the coup, the ruling junta has brutally cracked down on protesters who continue to take to the streets to demand the return of civilian rule.

According to the UN, at least 85 anti-coup demonstrators have been killed in Sudan since October 25, not to mention hundreds of human rights violations perpetrated "in a context of total impunity".

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