News summary on the way home from work, Subsletter Evening.
Since the beginning of the new year, North Korea's military movements have been unusual, and the South Korean and American military authorities have analyzed it as preparing for a test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) called the 'Red Line'.
It is possible that North Korea may abolish the moratorium on nuclear and ICBM test launches announced in April 2018.
North Korea continues to raise the level of tension on the Korean Peninsula at the time of our government change.
Kim Jong-un visits the Seohae satellite launch site
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visited the Seohae satellite launch site where long-range rockets could be launched and ordered the expansion and renovation of the launch facility.
Take a look at the Korean Central News Agency.
"The Comrade General Secretary toured various places of the Seohae Satellite Launch Center, presented the goals for the reconstruction and modernization of the satellite launch site, and revealed specific directions and methods for its implementation. He suggested the task of modernly remodeling and expanding the military reconnaissance satellite and other multi-purpose satellites to be launched with various transport rockets in the future and new elements of the launch site.”
Specifically, the Korean Central News Agency reported that he ordered modernization of facilities for launching multi-purpose satellites, expansion of fuel injection facilities, and establishment of an outdoor launch observatory.
North Korean media reported yesterday (10th) of Chairman Kim's visit to the National Space Development Agency, and Chairman Kim said at this meeting, "During the five-year plan, a large number of military reconnaissance satellites were deployed in multiple directions in a solar-synchronous orbit, and "I fully support the National Space Agency's determination to build strong reconnaissance intelligence gathering capabilities," he said.
Since the long-range rocket for putting a reconnaissance satellite into low-Earth orbit has almost the same technology as an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), Chairman Kim's visit to the National Space Development Agency and the Seohae satellite launch site can all be interpreted as the procedure for launching an ICBM.
In the photo, Chairman Kim is wearing sunglasses and a black leather jumper (aviation jumper).
He wore a similar jumper when inspecting the National Space Development Agency, and it seems that his clothes are tailored to the destination as the place he is visiting is the site of satellite launch and space development.
Seohae satellite launch site?
What kind of location is the Seohae Satellite Launching Site in Dongchang-ri, which Chairman Kim Jong-un ordered during a visit?
It can be said to be a 'sacred place' for the development of ICBMs and long-range rockets.
It is located in Dongchang-ri, Cheolsan-gun, North Pyongan Province, and is equipped with facilities such as a modern launch pad that can launch long-range rockets and a rocket moving rail.
In the past, most of the field experiments necessary to develop long-range rocket (missile) technology and core ICBM technology were conducted here. That's it.
South Korea and the US are calling this launch site in Dongchang-ri, Cheolsan-gun, North Pyongan Province, a 'long-range missile launch site'.
If North Korea launches an ICBM under the name of a reconnaissance satellite, it is highly likely to be launched from here.
In the 'peaceful atmosphere' where the inter-Korean summit and North Korea-U.S. summit were held in 2018, the actual dismantling movement was also caught after North Korea promised to dismantle the Sohae satellite launch site. Work on lifting the rocket engine's vertical test stand was identified, but it was determined that the work stopped after just a few days.
After the 'Hanoi No Deal' in 2019, the launch site was fully restored.
Since then, North Korea has made the Seohae Satellite Launching Center a cradle for long-range missile and ICBM technology development, and is foretelling further provocations.
"Performance test ahead of monster ICBM launch"
Remember the weapon in the picture?
It was first unveiled on October 10, 2020, at the military parade for the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Labor Party.
At that time, the military parade was held at 0 am for the first time in history, and Chairman Kim Jong-un cried while giving a speech.
The weapon in the photo is a new ICBM, 'Hwasong-17', and it was called a 'monster ICBM' at the time of its release because it was larger in diameter and length than the previous ICBM.
North Korea fired ballistic missiles on the 27th of last month and the 5th of this month, and as a result of analysis by South Korean and US military authorities, the projectile (propulsion fuselage) was evaluated to be the same as that released in 2020.
North Korea's two launches were part of a performance test ahead of the 'Hwasong-17' launch.
South Korea and the United States saw a high possibility that North Korea would disguise this ICBM as a space launch vehicle and launch it at the maximum range, and it is also said that the abolition of the moratorium on nuclear and ICBM test launches announced by North Korea in April 2018 is imminent.
It seems that the instability of the situation on the Korean Peninsula will increase.
When North Korea launches a missile, the South Korean military discloses some initial specifications such as altitude and range, but it is rare to officially announce it with the United States with the prospect of a 'test with the highest range of a space launch vehicle'.
The unusual announcement can be seen as a warning to North Korea to 'do not provoke', and the United States and South Korea are raising a united voice to stop the ICBM launch, which is considered the 'red line'.
A high-ranking U.S. official also explained the reason for disclosing the details of the analysis at a press briefing "because we prioritized strategic risk mitigation and firmly believed that the international community should have a unified voice in opposing North Korea's additional weapons development." I did.
North Korea called "reconnaissance satellite"
North Korea is claiming that the two recent provocations are part of a 'test for the development of reconnaissance satellites'.
The Chosun Central News Agency reported that the 'reconnaissance camera test' on the 27th of last month and the 'verification of the satellite data transmission/reception system' were set as test goals on the 5th.
Today (11th), North Korean propaganda media 'Echo of Unification' made the same claim and criticized us.
The echo of reunification was, "The South Korean authorities are playing around again with the important test for the development of our reconnaissance satellite. It is a normal and self-defense activity to carry out the important task of strengthening the national defense force to carry out the decision of the party congress." , accusing the Ministry of Unification, saying, "It is very reasonable that the voices of 'the Ministry of Unification is not as good as nothing' is rising in the political and social circles of South Korea right now."
However, experts believe that while North Korea is promoting the development of a reconnaissance satellite externally, it is actually taking steps toward an ICBM test launch.
As North Korea claims, to put a reconnaissance satellite into low-Earth orbit, long-range rockets must be used, because long-range rockets are not very different from ICBM technology.
Long-range rockets made of three separate components are used for launching satellites when a satellite is mounted on the warhead, and converted into an ICBM when a nuclear warhead is installed.
Is it time to change the government?
As for North Korea's intentions, 1) the purpose of bringing the United States to the negotiating table or pressurizing it 2) the multi-purpose pavement after the Ukraine crisis 3) the strengthening of the Myway-style military power are being discussed. It is also analyzed to see
There is also concern that the timing of North Korea's provocation may be before the new government is launched.
It is said that there may be an ICBM provocation during the 110th anniversary of Kim Il-sung's birthday (Day of the Sun) on April 15 and during the South Korea-US joint exercise expected in April.
However, there are experts who view the possibility of North Korea provoking a provocation low despite strong sanctions in a situation where the confrontation between Russia and the West is intensifying due to the Ukraine incident.
Even if the 'red line' ICBM test launch does not take place, the level of tension on the Korean Peninsula will continue to rise.
a piece of the day
Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People's Party, is coming out of the People's Power Central Party.
After a luncheon meeting with President-elect Yoon Seok-yeol, he said, "We didn't talk about the issue of personnel management."