An American expert for Al Jazeera Net: Putin's main goal is not the occupation of Ukraine, and this is the mistake he made

Washington

- Alexander Downes, director of the Institute for Security and Conflict Studies at George Washington University and an expert in international conflicts and urban wars, predicted that the fighting in Ukraine would be prolonged, amid Moscow's desire to install a pro-Kremlin regime after eliminating the ruling regime in Kiev.

In his interview with Al Jazeera Net, Downs said that Putin's main goal is not to occupy Ukraine, especially with the harsh sanctions imposed by the West on him so far, while linking China with its desire to annex Taiwan, and the messages sent by the Western reaction to the invasion of Ukraine. , The following is the text of the interview:

• How do you evaluate the Russian military campaign against Ukraine so far?

Clearly, things did not go according to plan, and the Russians believed that they could achieve a quick and decisive victory, take Kyiv quickly, and install a new pro-Russian regime in a couple of days.

This did not happen for two reasons, first, the Ukrainian resistance was more stubborn and effective than the Russians expected, and second, the Russian forces were unprepared and were suffering from vehicle breakdowns, supply issues, and morale issues.

Therefore, they resorted to large-scale bombing of Ukrainian cities, deliberately killing hundreds - if not thousands - of civilians.

Russian forces are moving to encircle Kyiv, but they are moving very slowly.

They are also moving from the north and south in an attempt to cut off Ukrainian forces in the east of the country.

• What are the main mistakes of the Russian army's operation in Ukraine?

The most important mistake was excessive optimism, the belief that the Ukrainian army and people would simply surrender in the face of a Russian attack.

And second, the lack of logistics and supplies, which stemmed directly from the belief that the war would be too short.

Third, the attempt to capture the main urban areas other than Kyiv. Fighting in the cities is much more difficult and costly than moving across open areas, and hence Russia was unable to capture them, and resorted to bombing them indiscriminately.

Fourth, the failure to implement the double encirclement from the north and south that would have cut off the path for the Ukrainians fighting in the east.

• How long do you expect Russia's war in Ukraine to continue?

President Vladimir Putin thought the war would be over in a day or two, but after two weeks of fighting, there is no indication how long this war will last.

The Russian convoy of thousands of armored vehicles and tanks has stopped outside Kyiv, perhaps the best alternative to taking Kyiv by a knockout, but it has not moved in recent days, which leaves the field open to many questions, but it is certainly not a good sign for the Russians.

• In your opinion, what is Putin's main goal in this war?

In my opinion, President Putin's goal is to overthrow the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, and install a pro-Russian regime.

By doing so, Ukraine will remain firmly in the Russian sphere of influence, and remain outside NATO.

Putin may also include Donbass, but I don't think Putin's goal is to re-establish the Soviet Union or the Russian Empire by annexing Ukraine.

• What is your assessment of the reaction of the Americans and Europeans so far, and are Western sanctions really able to deter Russia?

President Biden and his NATO allies have made clear that the use of direct force is not on the table.

And I think this is the right policy, given the risks of going to war with another nuclear power.

However, sanctions were never enough to deter Russia before the fighting began.

After the start of the Russian war, the reaction of the United States, NATO, and the European Union was clearly united and harsh.

Sanctions will inflict real pain on the Russian elite and the Russian people as well.

The question now is whether these sanctions can force President Putin to change course, stop his attacks, and strike a deal.

And I imagine that the imposed sanctions will not push it, as the current sanctions cannot do this alone unless Western countries cut off Russian oil and gas exports.

This is likely to be a game-changer because it would prevent Russia's last source of foreign exchange.

Otherwise, sanctions will only have an effect in combination with Russia's failure on the battlefield.

And if the Russians continue to be indecisive about the invasion of Ukraine, it may open the door to some sort of negotiated settlement.

• Do you think President Putin underestimated the Biden administration's response to his military operation in Ukraine?

Certainly, Putin may have thought that the Europeans would be reluctant to join in the imposition of sanctions because of their dependence on Russian gas.

I think he did not expect his actions to lead the United States and Europe to coordinate together, and to act in concert in an unprecedented manner.

• Did the Biden administration expect this Russian war on its part?

Yes, I think so, the United States seemed to have very good intelligence about what Putin was thinking with the completion of the Russian military build-up on the border.

Biden kept warning of an imminent invasion, so much so that Ukraine's president, Zelensky, wanted him to back down because he was worried about provoking the Russians, and about the effect on the Ukrainian economy.

• What do you think of Putin's threat to resort to nuclear weapons if necessary?

It is clear that he is trying to deter any direct Western military intervention to save Ukraine.

However, Western countries have no intention of interfering, except to send copious amounts of military equipment to Ukraine.

So, Putin's threat is very serious, but ultimately not very meaningful.

And if, for whatever reason, the West begins to seriously consider intervening on a larger scale, things will become even more terrifying.

US President Joe Biden has repeatedly warned of an imminent Russian war on Ukraine before Moscow's military action (Al-Jazeera)

• What are the geostrategic consequences of Russia's war on Ukraine?

The consequences of the war will be rather bad, but not catastrophic, everyone will certainly need to rethink security in Europe, future relations with Russia will be worse for the foreseeable future and the situation will be more tense.

However, the performance of the Russian military thus far shows that it is less threatening than previously thought, and I do not think that Russia is now more likely to attack NATO countries, such as Poland or the Baltic states.

These countries have Article 5 obligations, and NATO would fight back if attacked by the Russian side.

President Putin knows that NATO is also nuclear-armed, and this is a risk he will not take.

The different question is how the response to Russia's war on China affects, and whether China will derive the Ukraine scenario with Taiwan.

Given that the United States is not prepared to fight to defend Ukraine, some will understand that it will not fight to defend Taiwan.

I don't think this is a very good conclusion;

Given the differences in the situation, but it is not beyond the realm of possibility.

Alternatively, China could see the stifling sanctions inflicted on the Russians and decide, given its participation in the global economy, the need for economic growth, and high levels of trade with the United States, Japan, and Europe, that it does not wish to suffer those consequences if it invades Taiwan.