In its war in Ukraine, Russia follows a strategy based on besieging cities and targeting infrastructure with devastating air and artillery bombardments, before activating “safe corridors” to evacuate civilians, in steps reminiscent of its military intervention in Syria, which constituted a testing ground for its soldiers and weapons.
But Moscow - which did not deploy forces on the ground with the Syrian regime forces - faced in Syria often scattered opposition groups, lacking arms, equipment and international support, but today in Ukraine it is facing resistance from an organized army, amid international political mobilization rejecting the war on Ukraine.
Russia began its direct military intervention alongside the Syrian regime forces in September 2015, and has been one of the most prominent supporters of the Damascus regime since the outbreak of the revolution in 2011. Its intervention quickly contributed to turning the balance of power on the ground in favor of its ally Syria on several fronts, after the Syrian forces were affiliated with The regime lost a large part of the territory.
Since the beginning of its war in Ukraine on February 24, Russia has sent tens of thousands of its forces into the attack, and they are participating in the bombing and siege of major cities that are under their fire range, which has forced tens of thousands to flee.
Moscow says that it does not target civilian areas, despite the talk of human rights organizations and Western powers - including Washington - about "credible reports" indicating that Russia committed war crimes in its attack on Ukraine, especially its targeting of civilians.
A French military source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told AFP that the Russian military operations in Ukraine constituted a "change in scope," noting that "Syria was a small theater."
But many of the tactics used in Ukraine derive from Russia's experience in Syria, where its military gained practical experience, and Moscow tested an important part of the Kremlin's military arsenal.
Among the top Russian generals who participated in missions in Syria, Major General Andrei Sokovitsky, deputy commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army, who was killed this month in Ukraine, and General Vitaly Gerasimov, whose death was announced by Kyiv, were not confirmed by Moscow.
"For Russia, Syria constitutes a training field for equipment," said a researcher specializing in Syrian geography, Fabrice Balanche, told AFP.
Take control of the big cities and open the lanes
Human rights and international organizations have long accused Russia of supporting the Syrian regime in its siege of areas outside its control and tightening the noose around them by targeting infrastructure, health and service facilities, and preventing the entry of humanitarian aid in order to push the population and opposition fighters to evacuate their areas.
Balanche explains that "Russia's first goal in Syria has always been to regain control of the major cities," starting from Aleppo at the end of 2016 to Eastern Ghouta near Damascus in 2018;
With the aim of giving President Bashar al-Assad "legitimacy".
He points out a similarity with Ukraine;
The Russian forces are advancing towards major cities, most notably Kyiv, which "constitutes a source of legitimacy for power", and seeks to strip them of them.
As in Syria previously, Russia in Ukraine, according to Balanche, is adopting a method of intimidating civilians by moving from “bombing military sites to health and energy infrastructures to make the lives of civilians impossible, and push them to leave.”
Thus, "facilitating the task of advancing the forces" in the field.
During the 2016 military attacks on the city of Aleppo (northern Syria) and then on the Idlib governorate (northwest) between 2019 and 2020, Moscow and the Syrian regime forces launched raids that “deliberately” targeted dozens of schools, hospitals and markets, causing many casualties, ignoring calls International to neutralize civilian installations.
Two days before the start of the Russian war on Ukraine, Kenneth Roth, director of Human Rights Watch, expressed concern that "what he described as the war crimes strategy" in Syria could be replicated in Ukraine.
With the start of the war, human rights organizations, including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, accused Russia of using cluster bombs in the bombing of a school and hospital in the city of Kharkiv (the second largest city in the country), which amounted to "war crimes".
Kyiv accused Moscow of bombing a pediatric and maternity hospital yesterday, Wednesday, in the city of Mariupol (southern Ukraine), which sparked an international outcry and condemnation of what was described as a "war crime".
In a scenario in which Russia was the main engineer in Syria to evacuate the population from areas outside the control of the Syrian regime, Moscow announced the opening of "humanitarian corridors" in Ukraine to evacuate thousands, in a strategy that analysts questioned its feasibility.
Variations
The similarity in the tactics followed by Russia in the two countries does not preclude the existence of differences on several levels.
Most notably, it relates to the scope of the attack and the nature of those involved.
Nicholas Heras, a researcher at the New Lines Institute, told AFP that "Russia relied mainly on its air power and some specialized units to provide advice and assistance to forces loyal to Assad, but the Russians are the main fighting force" in Ukraine.
Heras also points out a difference in the capabilities of the military forces;
Russia is facing in Ukraine a regular army backed by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and European countries that supply it with weapons, in addition to that it has mainly anti-aircraft and armor capabilities.
In contrast, Russia fought in Syria "a war on a smaller scale in which it had complete control."
A non-resident researcher at the Russian International Affairs Council, Anton Mardasov, believes that Russia, after its combat experience in Syria, has a clearer vision of its weapons systems and how they work.
"It corrected many of the shortcomings of its high-precision weapons on land, sea and air that were discovered during the use of missile systems in Syria," he says.
"In Ukraine, high-precision weapons are used very effectively and accurately," he adds.