To hear Emmanuel Macron's support, this is the strong point of the presidential record.
For several months, a little music has been praising the good economic results obtained during this five-year period which is coming to an end.
Attractiveness, competitiveness, growth, unemployment, purchasing power: all the signals are green, underlines Emmanuel Macron in his letter to the French who formalized his candidacy on Thursday March 3.
Is this complacency consistent with reality?
As often in economics, everything depends on the point of view adopted.
Emmanuel Macron came to power with one objective: "to liberate work and the spirit of enterprise", affirmed his 2017 program, in order to promote the return of growth, the fall in unemployment and the increase in purchasing power. the French.
To achieve this, the former Minister of the Economy under François Hollande wanted to reform the French economy in depth, both to obtain concrete changes in the country, but also to transform the perception of France vis-à-vis foreign investors.
>> Emmanuel Macron, the results (1/4): on the international scene, a powerless mediator president
On the business side, Emmanuel Macron reduced the corporate tax rate from 33.3% to 25%, considerably reduced the cost of labor by transforming the 20 billion annual aid from the tax credit for competitiveness and employment (CICE) in permanent reduction of social security contributions and amended the Labor Code to allow employers to dismiss more easily.
On the private side, he abolished wealth tax (ISF) and created the single flat-rate levy (PFU) on capital income to promote, according to the trickle-down theory, investment in companies and in the real economy.
Five years after its accession to the Élysée, the raw figures are rather flattering and, according to the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, "the French economy is doing very well".
Growth, first of all, reached 7% in 2021, according to an initial estimate by INSEE published at the end of January.
This is due to the rebound that followed the record recession of 2020 (-8%) linked to the Covid-19 crisis, but the progression of the French gross domestic product (GDP) is one of the strongest in the zone. euro.
The unemployment rate fell to 7.4% in the fourth quarter of 2021, a level it had not seen since 2008. As for France's image abroad and its attractiveness, these these have improved considerably.
La République en Marche thus argues that France has become, during the quinquennium,
💬 "Contrary to what all the cassandres say for the election campaign, the French economy is doing very well", @BrunoLeMaire in #RTLMatin with @VenturaAlba.
The evolution of unemployment figures is "a great French victory" pic.twitter.com/dczwonftYk
– RTL France (@RTLFrance) February 18, 2022
More precarious and lower quality jobs
However, these good results do not tell the whole story, particularly in terms of attractiveness and international competitiveness.
France's trade balance, in particular, remains a major concern with a foreign trade deficit (the difference between what France imports and what it exports) which has widened further by 7.3 billion euros. euros in 2020, according to INSEE, to reach 65.2 billion euros.
The unemployment rate, moreover, was initially able to decrease thanks to the increase in the precariousness of employees.
To promote hiring, employers had to be reassured about their ability to separate from their employees in the event of difficulty, according to the spirit of the Labor ordinances passed in 2017. The use of precarious jobs (CDD, interim, site CDI) was thus facilitated.
France had in 2020, according to INSEE data, 3.3 million people with this status, or 12.4% of total jobs.
But above all, the modification of the Labor Code has allowed the establishment of a scale of industrial tribunal compensation in the event of dismissal without real and serious cause.
Employers can now dismiss without valid reason under the law knowing, in advance, how much it will cost them.
>> To read: Emmanuel Macron presents himself again as the "labor" candidate
In addition to the precariousness of employees, the five-year term was marked by a decline in the quality of the jobs held.
Mediapart thus notes that the average number of hours worked fell from 32 hours to 30.9 hours per week between the second quarter of 2017 and the third quarter of 2021. A drop partly linked to the Covid-19 crisis but which is also the sign of a change in the work done.
Many jobs created are market service jobs with low added value.
The government was thus proud, in January, of the creation of nearly a million companies in France in 2021 - "a simply historic record" according to Bruno Le Maire -, but it was for 641,543 between them of microentrepreneurs (new name for autoentrepreneurs).
A simply historic record.
pic.twitter.com/h4pmE4OaU6
- Bruno Le Maire (@BrunoLeMaire) January 17, 2022
Finally, France had, in 2020, 1.9 million people no longer actively looking for a job, ceasing at the same time to be counted in the unemployment figures.
The 7.4% rate is therefore also the result of write-offs, up sharply after the 2020 break, as economist Maxime Combes points out on Twitter.
Similarly, the unemployment insurance reform, fully applied since the fall of 2021, could reduce the number of registrations at Pôle Emploi due to more restrictive conditions of access to benefits, according to specialists, who however lack hindsight to fully appreciate the impact of the reform.
[Did you know?]
If the #unemployment figures are improving it's also because @pole_emploi radiation is back to record levels after the 2020 break:
➡️52,300 in the fourth quarter of 2021,
➡️166,400 in 2021 Write
off
the unemployed to stop counting them pic.twitter.com/Ht3wECdlGi
– Maxime Combes #AlloBercy (@MaximCombes) February 14, 2022
No impact on productive investment
On the taxation side, while the financial aid provided to companies and other relief has not been the subject of a recent evaluation, the lack of impact of the reduction in taxes for the richest on productive investment has been observed.
"The observation of the major economic variables – growth, investment, flows of household financial investments, etc. – before and after the reforms, is not enough to conclude on the real effect of these reforms. In particular, it will not be not possible to estimate by this means alone whether the abolition of the ISF has allowed a reorientation of the savings of the taxpayers concerned towards the financing of companies", judges the third evaluation report of the reform of the taxation of capital drawn up by France Strategy – an organization attached to the Prime Minister – and published in October 2021.
The wealthiest French people have therefore not chosen to invest in the real economy, but have indeed seen their purchasing power jump over the past five years.
In this they are the big winners of the Macron five-year term.
The richest 1% thus obtained, according to a study by the Institute for Public Policy (IPP), published in November 2021, an average gain of 2.8% on all of their income after taxes and benefits.
The increase is even more striking among the wealthiest 0.1%, who saw their purchasing power jump by around 4%.
>> Purchasing power: the richest, big winners of the Macron five-year term
The runoff, for its part, was done drop by drop for the rest of the population, part of which descended on the roundabouts to testify to their discomfort during the yellow vests crisis.
According to the IPP study, the overall average increase in the standard of living for all French people, between 2017 and 2022, is around 1.6%.
The poorest 5% of households are the big losers: their purchasing power has fallen by an average of 0.5% during Emmanuel Macron's term of office.
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