(Observation of the Two Sessions) How to achieve common prosperity in an aging society?
China News Agency, Beijing, March 10th: How to achieve common prosperity in an aging society?
China News Agency reporter Li Hanxue
Zheng Bingwen, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and director of the World Social Security Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an exclusive interview with a reporter from China News Agency recently that the increasing pressure on basic pension payments brought about by the aging population will have an adverse impact on the realization of common prosperity. The development of a multi-level and multi-pillar old-age insurance system must be accelerated.
The industry is accustomed to use the "three pillars" to describe the pension system.
The first pillar is the basic pension insurance, the second pillar is the enterprise annuity supplementary pension insurance, and the third pillar is the commercial pension insurance.
Zheng Bingwen said that the basic pension system is an inclusive, basic and basic institutional arrangement, and its basic function is to prevent poverty in the elderly.
If a country does not have a basic pension system, the rate of poverty in the elderly is bound to increase.
For example, the elderly poverty rate under the basic pension system in the United States is 11%, but without basic pension insurance, it will rise to 60%.
Most developed countries establish the second pillar first and the first pillar after, so if there is no first pillar, the poverty rate of the elderly can reach 60%; while China is the first pillar first, the second pillar last, with the current first pillar. The low coverage rate of the second pillar, without the first pillar, the elderly poverty rate may exceed 90%.
At present, China's basic pension replacement rate is at a medium level internationally, lower than some high-welfare countries in Europe, but higher than the level of the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, South Korea and other countries.
It can be said that China's basic pension system plays an important role in "finding the bottom line".
He said that some people have misunderstandings about basic pensions, thinking that they "do not depend on others to support themselves", that aging has nothing to do with them, and that they are unwilling to pay social security fees.
In fact, the basic pension system of "one generation feeds one generation" is one of the most reliable pension methods when the demographic dividend is sufficient.
This is especially true given China's economic boom in recent decades.
"40 years ago, in my first year of college graduation, I earned 56 yuan. Now I earn more than 10,000 yuan, and my salary has increased by 200 times. Everyone's salary has increased by hundreds of times. You use the income in the form of monetary finance. How much money can I save now?" He said, therefore, under the conditions of rapid economic growth, the pay-as-you-go basic pension system of "feeding one generation for one generation" is beneficial and reliable for everyone.
However, under the trend of aging, the pressure of basic pension payment is increasing.
The higher the population aging, the smaller the proportion of the labor force. To keep the replacement rate unchanged and maintain intergenerational equity in the future, the burden on the labor force will become heavier and heavier, and the population will usher in negative growth.
Moreover, as the economic growth rate gradually enters a steady state, in a few years, China will enter the ranks of high-income countries.
When these conditions come together, the pay-as-you-go system can gradually transition to an accumulation-based system, that is, to an asset-based system.
Zheng Bingwen said that the weakening of the demographic dividend can be replaced by income from the capital dividend, which is the need for the transformation of the pension system.
This transformation is to ensure that the pension system can continue to play an inclusive, fundamental and fundamental role in promoting common prosperity, without being dragged down by an aging population.
Zheng Bingwen pointed out that, therefore, it is imperative to accelerate the development of a multi-level and multi-pillar old-age insurance system.
The multi-level and multi-pillar pension is the carrier of the asset-based system. This carrier will be able to "hedge" the unsustainable pension system caused by the reduction of demographic dividends, and gradually replace the pay-as-you-go system that cannot meet the actual needs. Type second and third pillar pension insurance to accumulate pension assets.
Judging from the situation in developed countries where population aging occurred earlier, in the retirement income structure of the elderly, the proportion of pension payments in the first pillar is getting smaller and smaller, and the proportion of pension insurance in the second and third pillars is increasing. Big.
Only in this way can we ensure that the entire pension system can also become an institutional arrangement that promotes the realization of common prosperity under the trend of population aging.
He said that achieving common prosperity in an aging society will inevitably require the society to be innovative and to increase the level of output per unit, which requires continuous technological innovation, and emerging technologies continue to receive more venture capital support. The three-pillar pension asset pool has naturally become the main source of long-term equity investment.
From this perspective, the pension system is not only a people's livelihood system, but also a factor of production. It is a scarce long-term capital that can promote technological innovation.
From a long-term perspective, it will be beneficial to the productivity improvement of the entire society and the realization of common prosperity.
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