Under the multiple blows of climate change, ongoing epidemics, and regional conflicts
Global food security flashes a "red light"
Recently, the United Nations World Food Program and other international organizations have issued warnings that in the context of global climate change and the ongoing epidemic, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may have a serious impact on the world food supply chain and prices, threatening global food security.
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With Russia and Ukraine accounting for about 29 percent of global wheat trade, any severe disruption to production and exports in the region would affect supply chains and could even push food prices up to 10 years. highs, which would jeopardize the food security of millions of people, especially those under pressure due to high levels of food inflation in their home countries.
David Beasley, executive director of the United Nations World Food Programme, believes that the world is already facing a year of unprecedented hunger, and the crisis in Ukraine could lead to a surge in global food prices, with a catastrophic impact on the world's poorest people; while some The country will be hit especially hard. 50% of Lebanon's food comes from Ukraine, and Yemen, Syria, Tunisia and other countries also rely on Ukraine as a "granary". "This is a tragedy."
World Bank President Malpass also said a few days ago that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has pushed up food prices, "for people in poor countries, it is a real issue that needs to be considered." Data from S&P Global Platts shows that Ukraine is the largest country in the world. The world's largest producer of sunflower oil, Russia ranks second, and the combined output of the two countries accounts for 60% of global sunflower oil production.
According to media reports, the above concerns have recently become a reality in people's daily life in some countries or regions.
Wheat prices on the Chicago Board of Trade rose by more than 7% on the 7th, reaching a 14-year high as the market worried that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine would affect the global grain supply.
In Egypt, the world's top wheat importer, prices for some unsubsidized bread have risen sharply over the past week amid higher costs.
The World Food Program of the United Nations is worried that the poverty-stricken population in Egypt currently accounts for about 30% of the total population, and the sharp rise in wheat prices will further hit low-income people and make the situation worse.
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In fact, global food shortages and rising food prices are not "new problems" that suddenly appeared.
According to the latest data released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations not long ago, the global food price index hit a record high in February due to the sharp surge in the prices of vegetable oil and dairy products and the increase in the price of grains.
And so far this bad situation shows no signs of improving.
The Global Food Price Index is a measure of changes in international prices of the most actively traded food commodities.
The index is composed of a weighted average of the price indices of five commodity categories: cereals, vegetable oils, dairy products, meat and sugar.
In February 2022, the global food price index averaged 140.7 points, a month-on-month increase of 3.9% and a year-on-year increase of 24.1%, a record high, and an increase of 3.1 points from the last peak level in February 2011.
Data showed that a sharp rise in the price index of vegetable oils and dairy products led to a rise in the index in February.
In addition, the prices of grains and meat increased, of which the grain price index increased by 3.0% month-on-month, and the prices of major grains all increased from the previous month.
It is worth noting that the rise in food prices following the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has not been fully captured in the February report, and commodity prices have been surging since the end of February.
The worry is that the surge in global food prices may not stop in the short term.
On the one hand, Russia and Ukraine, two of the world’s two most important grain exporters, have their grain supply capacity severely affected by the ongoing conflict; on the other hand, when spring ploughing in the northern hemisphere begins, global fertilizer stocks are at an “unprecedented low”. ".
Sanctions on major fertilizer-producing countries such as Russia and Belarus will exacerbate the risk of supply disruptions. The increase in fertilizer prices means that the cost of food production will increase, and food inflation directly faced by consumers may further rise.
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As the so-called "freezing three feet is not a day's cold", the severe food security situation facing the world is not only caused by the sudden incident of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but also has more long-term and deep-seated reasons.
Since 2020, the new crown epidemic has caused a great impact on the global food system.
On the one hand, the global economic downturn triggered by the new crown epidemic has caused a sharp increase in the number of hungry people and poor and malnourished people in the world.
According to a report released by the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2021, in 2020, about 811 million people in the world will be undernourished, an increase of 17.37% from 2019, and the incidence of undernourishment is 9.9%, an increase from 2019. 17.86%.
On the other hand, quarantine policies under epidemic prevention and control have led to labor shortages in farmland, animal husbandry, fishing, slaughtering, meat processing and packaging plants, and food production and processing plants have been shut down.
In addition, due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, sea freight prices have soared, and the trade cost of goods transported from factories or farms to the other side of the border has risen by at least 25%, according to WTO estimates.
Disruptions to food supplies and rising global transportation costs significantly increase the risk to global food supplies.
In October last year, the United Nations World Food Program issued a warning that the world will face hunger caused by climate change if global action is not taken immediately.
An analysis by the United Nations World Food Programme shows that a 2°C rise in global average temperatures above pre-industrial levels would add 189 million more hungry people.
Among them, people living in African countries and Pacific island countries will bear the brunt of the severe food crisis.
Liang Fan