• In good momentum in the polls, Jean-Luc Mélenchon seems to have made the hole on the left.

  • The rebellious candidate now hopes to be a "useful vote" in the home stretch to reach the second round.

  • But his position on the war in Ukraine and his deteriorated public image could cost him points.

“There is a mouse hole”.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon is convinced of being able to reach the second round of the 2022 presidential election. By grabbing a few points in the polls in recent weeks, the candidate of La France insoumise seems to have killed the match on the left.

But since the eruption of the war in Ukraine in the French countryside, the deputy of Bouches-du-Rhône finds himself under the fire of criticism and must still meet several challenges a month before the first round.

Dodging blows over Ukraine

In a meeting on Sunday in Lyon, Jean-Luc Mélenchon again tried to defend his “non-aligned” position, neither on Russia nor on NATO.

But without convincing its competitors.

He makes "great speeches on peace [...] to hide his complacency and to hide his capitulation to a dictatorship, that of Vladimir Putin", Yannick Jadot tackled again on Monday.

The environmentalist candidate notably criticizes his refusal to deliver arms to the Ukrainians.

Last week, the socialist candidate Anne Hidalgo said she was "scandalized that a candidate from the left, an admirer of the Venezuelan dictator, now a supporter of Putin, holds a speech that transforms the aggressors into the attacked".

Attacks swept away by the rebellious.

“They are so violent and caricatural that they discredit the people who wear them more”, replies Eric Coquerel, LFI deputy.

“I notice that the left prefers to hit us rather than the extreme right, but I don't think that has an impact”.

The rebellious want to avoid the 2017 remake. Some close to the candidate felt that the end-of-campaign controversies over Cuba and Venezuela had cost them access to the second round.

Convince the left to be the useful vote

The rebellious have been calling for “useful voting” for a few weeks, pointing to the polls, which they have often hated so much.

Because Jean-Luc Mélenchon is now clearly leading the race on the left, with 10 to 12% according to opinion polls.

"In the home stretch, we hope that voters will say that a single voice must not be missing from the only candidate capable of reaching the second round", points out his campaign manager, Manuel Bompard.

In their sights in particular, the voters of Fabien Roussel, the communist candidate and former ally, today at 4-5%.

To convince, LFI says it can make compromises, including the possibility of a referendum on phasing out nuclear power.

But will that be enough?

Because the image of Jean-Luc Mélenchon has also deteriorated in public opinion during this five-year term.

His controversial outings on anti-Covid vaccines, on the Chechens, on the possibility of “serious incidents” at the end of the campaign, just like his judicial conviction after the stormy search of his party headquarters or his presence at the march against the Islamophobia could be brakes for part of the electorate.

“There is an optical illusion with these polls.

Because unlike 2017 with Benoît Hamon, Jean-Luc Mélenchon has no stock of votes to plunder.

It has even actually lost its strength, going from 19% to 11% in five years, ”says EELV MEP David Cormand.

Mobilize abstainers

Faced with these difficulties, the main challenge for the rebellious is to convince the French to move on April 10.

“We continue to deploy everywhere, with popular meetings, towing, door-to-door.

The challenge is to convince the working classes and young people, in particular, to mobilize.

Access to the second round goes through there, ”assures Eric Coquerel.

With a campaign prevented by the Covid crisis and the war in Ukraine, there is great uncertainty regarding the participation of the French in the ballot.

According to several polling institutes, the presidential election could be hit by record abstention.

“Some institutes give up to 10% less participation compared to 2017, notes Manuel Bompard.

However, the stronger the abstention, the more difficult it will be for us”.

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  • War in Ukraine

  • Fabien Roussel

  • Election campaign

  • Jean-Luc Melenchon

  • La France Insoumise (LFI)

  • Elections

  • Presidential election 2022

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