Elections in South Korea: the big stakes of an undecided presidential election

Korean President Moon Jae-in during a speech in Seoul on March 1, 2022. AFP - JEON HEON-KYUN

Text by: Nicolas Rocca Follow

6 mins

This Wednesday, March 9, South Koreans must appoint Moon Jae-in's successor as the Omicron epidemic is in full swing.

After a campaign marked by scandals, attacks and debates centered around housing and feminism, the two favorites are still neck and neck.

Conservatives and Democrats are proposing two diametrically opposed plans for Asia's fourth-largest economy.

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From our correspondent in Seoul,

With

South Korea has had to adapt to allow all registered voters to vote, especially for the million people who respect the seven days of mandatory isolation.

During the days of early voting on Friday and Saturday, queues and special times were to allow patients to vote in complete safety.

But not everything went as planned and positive and negative people rubbed shoulders in the long queues.

The electoral commission not having foreseen that 36.9% of the registered voters would move in advance to choose the successor of Moon Jae-in

Who are the favourites?

The campaigns of the two candidates Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Seok-youl have been marked by scandals, implicating them personally or their wives.

This is perhaps the only common point between the main contenders for the supreme office.

On the side of the ruling party, it was Lee Jae-myung who won the Democratic primary.

At 57, this former lawyer is known for having instituted social policies as mayor of Seongnam or governor of Gyeonggi province, the most populous in the country.

Favorable to the establishment of a universal income, Lee made his popular origins his political identity, highlighting his past as a worker in a factory.

Already a candidate for the primary in 2017, he is a known and controversial figure in South Korean political life.

Conversely, Yoon Seok-youl is a neophyte.

Until 2021, he was the attorney general of South Korea, an extremely powerful position, where he played a key role in the impeachment process and the sentencing of ex-president

.

Appointed by Moon Jae-in, he was a thorn in the side of the Democratic majority by investigating the Minister of Justice in particular, which made him very popular with conservatives.

Nicknamed "

" or the "

", he is known for his outspokenness and his controversial outings, particularly on issues of feminism.

 North Korea and international politics

Moon Jae-in had distinguished himself by his desire for dialogue with

.

Taking advantage of Donald Trump's interest in the matter, he met Kim Jong-un three times and even delivered a speech in Pyongyang.

But his efforts did not pay off, and

explains Go Myung-hyun, researcher at the Asan Institute and specialist in North Korea.

Until the end, Moon offered Pyongyang a joint declaration of an end to the Korean War.

A conflict officially still active for 71 years.

Kim Jong-un's answer is clear: since the beginning of the year, the regime has carried out nine missile tests.

In this complicated international context, Lee Jae-myung would represent a form of continuity and could pursue the path of dialogue by favoring a reduction in sanctions in exchange for denuclearization.

Yoon represents the voice of "rupture", as he is in favor of "preemptive strikes" in the event of imminent danger of attack from the North Korean neighbor.

He says he wants to achieve peace through "power" and deterrence.

Impossible to approach the North Korean question without speaking about China.

The country is the main economic partner of the two Koreas, which puts Seoul in a delicate situation, because it is Washington that guarantees the security of the country with around 30,000 soldiers present on its soil.

On this point, Yoon Seok-youl favors a clear rapprochement with the United States, following the Biden line on the Chinese question.

A strategy for electoral purposes, because the popularity of Beijing is in free fall among South Koreans.

On the Democratic side, we spare the goat and the cabbage.

Stuck between the two giants, Lee Jae-myung recommends the continuation of friendly relations with China.

In particular to continue the development of economic relations, but also in the hope of obtaining a positive intervention from Beijing on the North Korean issue.

, international issues have been overshadowed by economic debates.

Gender and real estate crisis

If South Korea managed to get through the pandemic without too many problems on the health side, the populations were affected by the restrictions.

In particular the self-employed who represent a quarter of the country's workers and who have paid a heavy price.

Many restaurants and cafes had to close as their activities were restricted to fight the outbreak.

Added to this was an explosion in real estate prices under Moon's tenure.

In Seoul, the price of a 100 m² apartment has almost doubled in five years.

A sensitive subject for many South Koreans on which the candidates clashed.

Lee Jae-myung pleads for the construction of social housing and the establishment of a universal income first for the most vulnerable in order to push consumption.

But the conservatives

also favorable to the increase in the number of dwellings, wish to reduce taxation on real estate to bring down prices.

Economic themes that have shared the front of the stage with a very popular subject among South Korean youth: that of feminism.

On Sunday February 27, several hundred of them demonstrated in front of the Ministry of Gender Equality and the Family to denounce

A symbolic position, because the conservative candidate wishes to abolish this ministry.

Driven by marked opposition among young South Koreans to feminist ideas (76% of men in their twenties said they were opposed to feminism according to a 2018 Kookmin Ilbo study), Yoon repeatedly took polemical positions on the right women.

While he credits feminism for South Korea having the lowest birth rate in the OECD, he also proposed tougher penalties for slanderous testimony of sexual assault.

Proposals that worry activists, especially since on the Democratic side, the candidate was far from enjoying a reputation as a feminist.

He nevertheless made his move by participating in rallies against sexual violence with figures in the community.

It is difficult to know which political vision will prevail when the two favorites are separated by the margin of error in the latest polls.

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