A repeat of the war scenario in Ukraine.. Malaysia is concerned about Chinese action in Southeast Asia

The war in Ukraine and the accelerating international events that preceded it stole the increasing international interest in Southeast Asia, as the withdrawal of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) led by the United States from Afghanistan was considered a prelude to shifting American interest from the Middle East and South Asia to the South China Sea, but the explosion of the situation in Ukraine Attracting attention to Europe away from East Asia.

Despite the geographical distance, there is a hidden link between the war on Ukraine and the conflict in the South China Sea, to the extent that former Malaysian Foreign Minister Hanifa Aman warned - in a written statement - that his country would face the fate of Ukraine, with the continued violations and breaches of the major countries in the region, and there is no doubt that He means the South China Sea, which his country overlooks, and in which the struggle for influence may turn into a heated confrontation at any time.

vow of confrontation

In order to prevent the strengthening of the US presence on the territory of the countries of the region, China does not stop sending warning messages to the countries bordering the South China Sea, even if it is a friend to it such as Malaysia, as happened in May last year when a squadron of 16 Chinese warplanes penetrated the airspace. Malaysian in the eastern part of the country.

And in the wake of the outbreak of war in Ukraine, on the 27th of last month, Taiwan announced the penetration of 9 Chinese warplanes into its airspace, which was also done by China with Malaysia before, which indicates that the Ukraine war model may be repeated with Taiwan, and that the United States and China will use All means to drag Malaysia and other countries into the conflict when it erupts.

While China continues to build artificial islands and military bases in the sea over which it claims sovereignty, the United States is looking to strengthen its presence by establishing military bases in the countries bordering the South China Sea, and its eye primarily on Vietnam and the Malaysian state of Sabah on Borneo Island, in which each of the two Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei Darussalam.

The Chinese island of Spartley in the territorially disputed South China Sea (Reuters)

The fixed bases enable the United States and its allies to parallel the geographical depth of China, which gives it the proximity and the artificial islands that it is building, as is the case in the Spratly Islands, which are disputed by China, the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam and Taiwan, and the Chinese burial area has exceeded 3200 hectares since 2013.

The importance of the artificial islands lies in the fact that they give China more territorial waters and areas of economic influence, while the fixed bases that the United States is looking for reduce the costs of warships and aircraft carriers, which are now superior to China.

According to a report by the Council on International Relations in the United States, the volume of trade goods that crossed the South China Sea in 2016 exceeded $3.3 trillion, while 40% of the world's liquefied gas crossed the South China Sea in 2017.

Oil reserves in the South China Sea are estimated at more than 11 billion barrels and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and these numbers are sufficient to demonstrate the extent of the economic importance of the South China Sea, as well as its strategic location in the Asia-Pacific region.

between malaysia and ukraine

The Malaysians did not forget the shooting down of their civilian airliner (Flight MH17) over Ukrainian territory in July 2014, and it stood powerless to do anything to punish those responsible for the downing of its plane and the killing of all 298 passengers on board, about two-thirds of whom hold Dutch citizenship.

As soon as the issue of Ukraine began to move towards a military escalation again, calls increased in Malaysia to increase the military budget, and to modernize and develop military capabilities, especially since defense reports ranked it among the weakest countries in Southeast Asia with equipment and armaments.

Malaysia finds itself in a critical position in the face of the interactions of international powers and the balancing of their interests. The United States and Europe are pressing hard to adopt the European position on the Ukrainian issue, and bear part of the burden of Ukrainian refugees, in contravention of Malaysia's policy that does not recognize the rights of refugees due to its failure to sign the 1951 Geneva Refugee Convention. and the 1967 refugee protocol.

A US-China conflict rages in the South China Sea (Reuters)

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte signed a presidential decree ratifying the refugee agreements on February 28, which the Philippine press considered keeping pace with developments in Ukraine, the effects of the war there, and the possible influx of refugees.

On the other hand, Malaysia finds it difficult to sacrifice its economic relations with Russia, and the effects of Western sanctions on Russia have begun to affect the Malaysian economy directly. Russia is the main source of building materials, especially iron and coal, and their shortage has caused real estate prices to rise, and threatens to disrupt energy supplies. Coal-based electric.

The war in Ukraine caused a rise in food prices, due to the suspension of wheat supplies, and the rise in palm oil prices locally and globally. Soybean and sunflower oil.