With Russia's invasion of Ukraine

The world is on the cusp of a global electronic war

• Ukrainian banks are exposed to cyber attacks.

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• Fears that the Russian-Ukrainian war will turn into a cyber war.

  AFP

• An approximate picture of the world of a cyber hacker.

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With Russia stepping up its cyber attacks on Ukraine, along with its military invasion, governments on both sides of the Atlantic are concerned that these cyber attacks could spread to other countries, which could turn into an all-out global cyberwar.

Russia has been blamed for a number of cyber attacks targeting the government and banking system in Ukraine in recent weeks.

Estonian cybersecurity company ESET said last week it had discovered new "scanner" malware targeting Ukrainian organizations.

These programs aim to erase data from their target systems.

The day before, the websites of several Ukrainian government departments and banks went down, after an attack made the web refuse service, which happens when hackers flood the website with disruptive traffic.

This follows a separate attack last week on four Ukrainian government websites that US and British officials have attributed to the Russian military intelligence agency.

Ukrainians have also reportedly received fake text messages that the country's ATMs are not working, which cybersecurity experts say is likely a scary tactic.

For its part, Russia says that it has "never conducted and does not carry out any malicious operations in cyberspace."

massive digital struggle

These attacks have led to fears of a broader digital conflict, as Western governments prepare for cyber threats from Russia and consider how to respond.

Officials in both the United States and Britain have warned companies to be wary of any suspicious activity from Russia on their networks.

Meanwhile, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said European countries should be "fully aware of the cybersecurity situation in their countries".

And "NBC News" reported that US President Joe Biden had been offered options in the United States to carry out cyber attacks on Russia, to disrupt Internet access and cut off electricity, but a White House spokesman rejected the report, saying that it was "far from the established norm big".

However, cybersecurity researchers say that online conflict between Russia and the West is in fact a high possibility, although the effects of any such event may be limited.

"Its impact is really limited, but I think it's also important to think about the reality of this cyberwar," says John Holtquist, vice president of intelligence analysis at Mandinat.

"A lot of people compare it to a real war, but in fact most of the cyberattacks we've seen have been peaceful and largely avoidable," he adds.

land occupation

The head of threat analysis at Dark Trace, Toby Lewis, says the attacks have so far focused largely on supporting the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

"But it seems that Russia is seeking to occupy the land rather than economic influence, which may be achieved more effectively through the Internet campaign."

However, Siantech researchers say the data-scavenging malware discovered in Ukraine also affected Ukrainian government contractors in Latvia and Lithuania, hinting at a possible "spread" of Russian cyberwarfare tactics to other countries.

“This cyber conflict is affecting global supply chains, and it may start to have some impact on other Western countries, which depend on some contractors and service providers,” says Lewis.

Several EU countries, including Lithuania, Croatia and Poland, are providing support to Ukraine by launching the Rapid Electronic Response Team.

First Strike Weapon

"We've long assumed that cyber-attacks would be part of any nation-state's arsenal, and I think what we're witnessing frankly for the first time in human history is that cyber-attacks become a weapon of first strike," says Vectra L CEO Hetish Sheth.

Sheth indicated that Russia may launch retaliatory cyber attacks, in response to Western sanctions announced earlier this week.

"I fully expect that given what we're seeing with Russia openly attacking Ukraine with cyberattacks, it will have covert channels as a way to attack institutions," he says.

Governments and cybersecurity researchers have long accused Russia of perpetrating cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns in an effort to disrupt economies and undermine democracy.

Now, experts say, Russia could launch more sophisticated forms of cyberattack, which would target Ukraine, and possibly other countries as well.

In 2017, a malicious program known as 'NotePtia' infected computers around the world.

At first, it targeted Ukrainian organizations, but quickly spread to the world, affecting major companies, such as Maersk, WPP and Merck.

The attacks were blamed on the Russian hacking group, Sandworm, and caused total losses of more than $10 billion.

"If they really focus on these kinds of activities against the West, that could have very real economic consequences," Hultquist tells CNBC.

"The other part we are concerned about is that they are going after critical infrastructure," he adds.

Hultquist also says that Russia has been digging into infrastructure in Western countries, such as the US, UK and Germany "for a very long time" and has been "caught involved" several times.

"The concern, though, is that we didn't see them pull the trigger," he concluded. "The thinking was always that they were preparing for emergencies."

The question that arises in this regard is: Is this the emergency that they were preparing for?

Is this the moment they have been waiting to start carrying out the disturbances?

We are clearly concerned that this may be the case.

Last year, Colonial Pipeline, the US oil pipeline system, was hit by a ransomware attack that disrupted critical energy infrastructure.

The Biden administration says it does not believe Moscow was behind the attack.

The culprit is believed to be a hacking group, Darkside, based in Russia.

• Cyber ​​security researchers say that online conflict between Russia and the West is in fact a high possibility, although the effects of any such event may be limited.

• Recent Russian cyber attacks raise fears of a broader digital conflict, as Western governments prepare for cyber threats from Russia and consider how to respond.

Officials in both America and Britain have warned companies to be wary of any suspicious activity from Russia on their networks.

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