Olga Lotman to Al Jazeera Net: The Russian war is beyond Ukraine and Putin dreams of restoring the legacy of the Soviet Union

Washington

- Olga Lotman, an expert on Russia and Ukraine at the Center for European Policy Analysis, predicted that Russia's military intervention in Ukraine would last a few weeks, and that Moscow would then install a pro-Kremlin regime.

Lotman, an expert of Ukrainian-Russian ancestry, from New York City, produces and presents a podcast called "The Kremlin File."

In her interview with Al Jazeera Net, Lotman said that Putin's main goal is to return the lands that have been lost since the collapse of the Soviet Union, noting that no one knows how Russian President Vladimir Putin thinks in these circumstances, and the following is the text of the dialogue:

Lotman is an expert in hybrid warfare (networking sites)

What is your reading of the Russian military attacks on Ukraine so far?

The Russian military strategy was to capture major cities such as Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa, and Mariupol within the first week of fighting, but they were unable to capture any major cities due to heavy resistance from the Ukrainians.

Moscow was also planning to overthrow the government of President Volodymyr Zelensky and install its puppet regime immediately, and so far has not succeeded.

Meanwhile, Ukrainians of all ages and backgrounds came out to defend their territory and slowed the progress of the Russian army in the early hours.

What are the main mistakes of the Russian army's operations in Ukraine so far?

The Russian army has massed on Ukraine's borders for months, exposing many of its soldiers to diseases amid harsh climatic and living conditions.

Morale appears to be very low among the Russian soldiers, and some of those captured on the Ukrainian side have explained that there is no clear understanding of the military orders issued to them.

On the other hand, there are a lot of logistical challenges, and challenges related to the lack of coordination that can be easily spotted with complaints that their tanks are running out of gas and there is not enough food.

President Putin also erred very seriously in his belief that Ukrainian citizens would not be willing to take up arms against the Russian army.

The main mistake made by the Russian side, both militarily and politically, was to underestimate the resilience of the Ukrainians, their belief in the duty to fight for the defense of their lands, their freedoms and their future.

How long will this war last in your estimation?

Russia expected the war to last a few weeks, and they believed that they would take control of the major cities of Ukraine, and would immediately install a puppet regime loyal to the Kremlin to suppress the Ukrainian resistance.

What is Putin's main goal in this war?

Putin's main goal is to return the lands lost since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

After 20 years in power, Putin has nothing to show domestically and wants to write his legacy.

Over the decades, Putin has mentioned several times how disastrous the collapse of the Soviet Union was, and he had a military strategy to return countries to Russia's sphere of influence.

Russia first completed this by smoothly annexing the state of Belarus, and then began its comprehensive attack against Ukraine. I think that the current crisis is greater than Ukraine and bypassing it, as Russia also wants to control the “Suwalki corridor” to link Kaliningrad (a Russian territory located between Lithuania and Poland). Belarus.

There is also a threat to the Baltic states and Moldova.

The combination of Western sanctions, confiscation of Russian assets, travel bans, and other measures being taken, is an excellent combination that weakens the Russian regime.

But all this will not deter Putin because he has his own calculations and zero concerns with the Russian people.

Nothing could deter Putin in the past few months because he was bent on taking over Ukraine.

Deterrence should have been done several years ago after the 2008 invasion of Georgia, its war crimes in Syria, and its invasion of Ukraine in 2014.

Yeah.

Putin has committed atrocities and war crimes in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria and Ukraine since 2008, and no one has been held accountable for this.

Russia has carried out assassinations, including on foreign soil, failed a few more, sent assassination squads across Europe, and committed atrocities in Central Africa, with dire consequences.

Putin did not expect the world to unite, and the West, led by Washington, to impose so many measures and sanctions against many figures and assets associated with the Kremlin.

Putin also downplayed the loss of the information war, which was aborted by unity and transparency by Western allies.

Now citizens around the world are speaking frankly, witnessing Russian war crimes in Ukraine through social media around the clock.

Russia began preparations for this invasion in February 2021, and last year it was clear that Russia would launch an all-out attack on Ukraine.

Not only did the US or British intelligence services expect this, they were transparent and issued many warnings over the past weeks and months.

Washington and London shared the intelligence they had with their allies, made it public, and clarified Russia's war strategies and the timing for the start of a full-scale invasion.

Nobody knows exactly how Putin thinks in these circumstances, he has isolated himself since the beginning of the spread and outbreak of the Covid-19 virus, and is surrounded by only a small circle of hardliners who agree with his goals.

I will not rule out the seriousness of the threat, including the use of tactical nuclear bombs, in the region.

Although, in my opinion, Putin has never been as strategic as some claim, he is cornered, angry and may unleash himself.

Russia's war on Ukraine could escalate outside Ukraine and could endanger the Baltic states, Moldova, and the security of all of Europe.

The unjustified Russian war and its plans to install a client regime in a sovereign country pose a danger to international standards and law.

We cannot allow the invasion of sovereign countries because the leader of a neighboring country has ambitions to restore the past, or decide to annex more territory.