Who will succeed Moon Jae-in?
On March 9, local time, South Korea will hold its 20th presidential election.
At that time, more than 42 million eligible voters in South Korea will vote for the new president, taking over the incumbent President Moon Jae-in, whose term has expired and cannot run for election.
The election is considered South Korea's most unpredictable presidential election in decades.
Lee Jae-myung, a candidate from the ruling Common Democratic Party, and Yin Xiyue, a candidate from the largest opposition party, the National Power Party, are leading in the polls.
In addition, another 12 candidates from other political parties participated in the competition.
Against the backdrop of a new wave of domestic epidemics and concerns about the international situation, South Korea's current presidential election has attracted widespread attention.
However, analysts believe that in the end, who will be in charge of the Blue House and the fourth largest economy in Asia in the next five years, there may still be variables until the election day.
'Non-traditional' candidates lead the way
On February 14, the registration of candidates for the 20th South Korean presidential election ended, and a total of 14 candidates will participate in the final competition.
Among the 14 presidential candidates, Li Zaiming and Yin Xiyue have an obvious pattern of "two powers competing for hegemony", and the two are considered to be the most likely candidates to become the next South Korean president.
In addition, An Zhexiu, a candidate from the Nationalist Party, and Shen Xiangxiu, a candidate from the Justice Party, are also popular candidates, but An Zhexiu suddenly announced his withdrawal from the race on March 3 and turned to support Yin Xiyue, which made the whole general election result more confusing. .
Lee Jae-myung, 57, is seen as Moon Jae-in's "successor".
Li Zaiming was a human rights lawyer before he entered politics and participated in human rights and civic movements many times.
From 2010 to 2018, Lee Jae-myung served as the mayor of Seongnam.
In 2018, he was elected Governor of Gyeonggi Province.
In October 2021, Lee Jae-myung resigned as the governor of Gyeonggi Province to concentrate on preparing for the presidential election.
As one of the political figures involved in the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye, Lee Jae-myung participated in the 2017 presidential primary election, but he missed the common Democratic presidential candidate because he lost to Moon Jae-in of the same party.
Lee Jae-myung is known for his outspokenness, which has won him many supporters, but has also been criticized for being too populist.
Yin Xiyue from the largest opposition party, the National Power Party, is 61 years old and has more than 20 years of experience in the procuratorial system.
Yin Xiyue played an important role in the investigation of two former South Korean presidents, Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye. He was also appreciated by Moon Jae-in and was appointed as the attorney general in 2019.
But later, Yin Xiyue and Wen Zaiyin stood on opposite sides because of insisting on investigating several important members of the ruling party camp.
It is also for this reason that Yin Xiyue has created a public image of uprightness, impartiality and discernment.
In March 2021, Yin Xiyue resigned as attorney general.
On June 29, 2021, Yin Xiyue officially announced her participation in the South Korean presidential election.
It is worth noting that Yin Xiyue has been an independent person until July 2021 before joining the National Power Party.
But he won the party's primary four months later and became the National Power Party's presidential candidate.
"To a certain extent, the two main candidates for this presidential election in South Korea are both political newcomers, and neither of them has extensive political experience." Dr. Li Chengri, Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, accepted In an interview, a reporter from the Beijing News pointed out that the previous South Korean presidential candidates were basically political "old people" and had rich political experience, but neither Li Zaiming nor Yin Xiyue had political experience in the central political stage, nor had they been elected as members of Congress.
Korean media pointed out that both Lee Jae-myung and Yin Xiyue are considered "non-traditional" presidential candidates, and the two are the first presidential candidates who have not been elected to Congress since democratization in 1987.
As a result, many believe they do not have enough political experience to be president.
Zhan Debin, director of the Center for Korean Peninsula Studies at Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, also told the Beijing News that Li Zaiming and Yin Xiyue, who are currently leading the polls, are both "non-mainstream" presidential candidates.
"Yin Xiyue has been working in the procuratorial system, but he doesn't know much about politics. It can be seen from his speeches and debates that he basically has no political experience, and he has repeatedly apologized for his blunders. Therefore, some political veterans in South Korea said that if he To be a president would be a 'vegetative president'," said Zhan Debin.
In contrast, Lee Jae-myung has slightly more political experience. He also participated in the presidential primary election in 2017, but he belongs to the "non-mainstream" in the Common Democratic Party and has no experience on the central political stage, so he does not belong to the mainstream of Korean politics. figure.
Zhan Debin said that this has also caused many South Korean voters to be confused and have not yet been able to decide who to choose as president.
Campaign out of focus in 'Scandal Contest'
Also confusing South Korean voters is the endless scandals of the two leading candidates.
Many Korean media pointed out that this five-year election is considered by many South Koreans to be "the most disgusting election in history".
In the past few months, the two leading presidential candidates, Lee Jae-myung and Yin Xiyue, have launched a fierce "smear attack", turning the election into a "scandal contest".
According to a Gallup poll in South Korea, the disfavorability of the two is higher than the favorability score, and the disfavorability score has even reached about twice the favorability score.
From Li Zaiming's point of view, he himself is suspected of participating in the "Dazhuangdong Real Estate Fraud Case", his son was exposed to be involved in gambling, and his wife apologized to the people for enjoying "special treatment"... From Yin Xiyue's point of view, the "abetment of election case" , interference in parliamentary elections, his wife was exposed to fake resumes and stock price manipulation, a series of scandals caused heated public opinion.
The popularity of the two has continued to decline because of scandals, and the scandals that have been exposed have also lost the focus of the election.
The US "Washington Post" previously said that South Korea's election reached the "worst level in history", and this vicious competition has exhausted voters.
"In the past presidential elections, the main focus was on the policy propositions put forward by each candidate. Voters will vote for whose proposition they support more and who they have a higher opinion of. However, in this general election, the two main candidates will vote for it. People are riddled with scandals and criticizing each other, so many voters are not very satisfied with the two candidates." Lee Sung Il said, "In the end, this election is not about choosing the best candidate, but a candidate who is not satisfied. selected candidates with lower dissatisfaction”.
In fact, both candidates are aware that the continued negative competition has sparked popular discontent.
Lee Jae-ming apologized for this at the end of January, saying, "I feel ashamed every time I hear that this is the most unpleasant election. I sincerely apologize."
He said he would focus more on policy issues in the campaign.
Zhan Debin said that from the past election history of South Korea, it can be seen that negative attacks during the election process are not uncommon, and the confrontation between candidates in terms of policy concepts has been diluted.
But this year, this phenomenon seems to be particularly prominent, partly because of the large number of candidates this time, and the lack of bright spots in the candidates' policy propositions, making it difficult to change the election through positive factors.
To some extent, this also highlights a feature of South Korea's general election, which is voting based on ideology.
Zhan Debin said that many voters do not make choices because of the candidates' policy propositions, but cast their votes out of ideology.
For example, one of Yin Xiyue's main labels is "anti-literature", which has attracted many voters who are dissatisfied with the Moon Jae-in government, and has won the support of many voters who support the "regime change theory".
According to the results of the Gallup poll released in October last year, South Koreans are more and more inclined to want regime change in the presidential election in March this year. 52% of the respondents believe that "in order to achieve regime change, the It is better for the candidate of the opposition party to be elected president”, only 35% of the respondents believed that “in order to maintain power, it is better for the candidate of the ruling party to be elected president”.
In Zhan Debin's view, the distinct anti-communist Democratic Party and anti-Moon Jae-in government labels are Yin Xiyue's biggest campaign advantage.
As a result, he has won the support of conservative forces, and the political orientation of the Korean people does tend to be conservative, especially among young people.
A survey in November 2021 showed that 22 percent of South Korean voters described themselves as progressive leanings, down 15 percentage points from 2017; 30 percent of voters described themselves as conservative leanings, an increase from 2017 3 percentage points; 33 percent consider themselves centrist.
It can be seen that during the period of Moon Jae-in's administration, the conservative tendency of Korean society became more obvious.
Lee Jae-myung also has his advantages.
Zhan Debin said that compared with Yin Xiyue, Li Zaiming is a person who has been verified by elections. From his ruling experience in Seongnam City and Gyeonggi Province, we can see that his campaign promises have basically been implemented, so the overall ruling evaluation is not bad.
In addition, Lee Jae-ming is the ruling party candidate, and some voters may think that he is more likely to implement his campaign promises after winning, and at the same time, he can continue some current policies and maintain political stability.
Zheng Jiyong, director of the Center for North Korea and South Korea Studies at Fudan University, pointed out in an interview with a reporter from the Beijing News that both Li Zaiming and Yin Xiyue were presidential candidates elected by the "adverse selection" within the party, and they were both politically marginalized figures before.
The two have their own advantages and disadvantages, but they also face numerous scandals, which makes the current presidential election very embarrassing. "For many candidates, whether it is Li Zaiming or Yin Xiyue, they cannot cast that vote; some people think I want to vote for Ahn Cheol-soo, who is conservative in the middle, but he has little hope of winning, so he has been vacillating.”
However, the scandals faced by Lee Jae-myung and Yin Xiyue have not been fully resolved, and no matter who is elected president in the future, these scandals may cause them trouble again.
There are still variables in the election under the epidemic
On March 4 and 5, South Korea held "pre-voting", allowing voters who might not be able to vote on Election Day to do so early.
Elections will be officially held on Election Day, March 9.
However, in the last week before the election, the epidemic in South Korea ushered in the highest peak since the outbreak.
According to Yonhap News Agency, on March 4, South Korea recorded more than 260,000 new confirmed cases of the new crown, setting a new record.
On the same day, there were 186 new deaths in South Korea, also setting a record since the outbreak of the epidemic.
Although the epidemic is still accelerating, South Korea is gradually relaxing some control measures.
The Central Disaster Safety Countermeasures Headquarters pointed out that at present, the mutant strain of Omicron has become the main epidemic strain, but the fatality rate and severe severity rate are all within the controllable range. In addition, considering the impact of the epidemic on small and medium-sized enterprises, some controls were finally relaxed.
In fact, the March 9 election was the first presidential election in South Korea since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic.
In order to ensure that patients infected with the new crown can also participate in voting, the South Korean government has previously announced that voters who are diagnosed and quarantined are allowed to go out to vote inside and outside the specified time.
Lee Sung-il believes that the sharp increase in the number of new crown infections in South Korea before the general election may affect the willingness of some voters to vote and affect the turnout rate of the general election.
The voter turnout may have a different degree of influence on Lee Jae-ming and Yin Xiyue.
Among South Korean voters, those over 60 tend to support Yin Xiyue, who is conservative, while those in the 40-50 class tend to support progressive Lee Jae-myung. The proportions of the two age groups are not much different.
This also makes young voters aged 20-30 and some centrist voters an important variable that affects the outcome of the general election - in fact, this is also the first presidential election held after South Korea lowered the legal voting age. In 2020, South Korea lowered the legal voting age from 19 years old. to 18 years old.
According to the South China Morning Post, young South Koreans tend to support progressive candidates in past elections, but soaring housing prices and unemployment under Moon Jae-in have turned many young people to support conservative candidates.
Zhan Debin pointed out that in this general election, there are two aspects that the Korean people are most concerned about.
The first is people's livelihood and economic issues, including housing prices, employment, medical security, etc.; the second is social fairness and justice. From the political case of Park Geun-hye's confidant Choi Soon-sil to the scandal of Moon Jae-in's Minister of Justice Cao Guo's use of power for personal gain, the issue of social injustice in South Korea has sparked extensive discussions.
Therefore, whether the new government can create a fairer and just society has attracted the attention of many voters.
Lee Jae-myung's domestic policy focuses on increasing social welfare.
He advocated the introduction of a "universal basic income," promising to pay citizens 500,000 won a month.
He also made promises to pay a one-time job search allowance, provide basic housing, and expand accident insurance for serving youth.
In order to attract young voters, Li Zaiming also advocated that hair loss treatment should be included in medical insurance, which caused heated discussions.
Yin Xiyue proposed policies to revitalize private enterprises and support youth entrepreneurship.
He also proposed "abolishing the Ministry of Women's Family", which gained the support of many male voters aged 20-29.
But he also lost the votes of many female voters.
Lee Sung-il pointed out that South Korea's current domestic political polarization and social division are more obvious, so Lee Jae-myung and Yin Xiyue are most concerned about domestic issues.
In addition, no matter who wins the election, the core of its governance will be on domestic affairs after taking office, including stabilizing housing prices, increasing employment opportunities, and promoting post-epidemic recovery.
The 'most unpredictable' election
Before March 3, public opinion generally believed that South Korea's presidential election was the most unpredictable election in recent decades.
Over the past few months, Lee Jae-myung and Yin Xiyue, who have been leading the polls, have been on a par with each other, and multiple polls show their approval ratings are within the margin of error.
According to the poll results released by South Korean polling agency Realmeter on March 2, Yin Xiyue's approval rate was 46.3%, and Lee Jae-ming was 43.1%, and the gap between the two's approval rate was within the margin of error.
The other two closely watched candidates, Ahn Cheol-soo and Shen Sang-seo, had 6.7% and 1.9% approval ratings, respectively.
The latest data from Embrain Public, another South Korean polling agency, shows that Yin Xiyue's approval rate is 45.9%, and Li Zaiming's 45%. The gap between the two is within the margin of error.
In an interview with a reporter from the Beijing News, Zhan Debin said that in the past several South Korean presidential elections, there have been relatively obvious trend candidates, that is, a certain candidate's policy views are just in line with the social mood at the time, so in the polls advantages are obvious.
"But in this presidential election, the approval ratings of Lee Jae-ming and Yin Xiyue are on the same level. Even though the election day is less than a week away, the situation has not changed significantly. As a result, no one can accurately judge who will win. General election." Zhan Debin said.
However, on March 3, the pattern of South Korea's presidential election changed.
According to Yonhap News Agency, Yin Xiyue and An Zhexiu held a press conference early that morning, announcing the election of a single candidate to fight against Li Zaiming.
An Zhexiu announced his support for Yin Xiyue, indicating his intention to withdraw from the general election.
The two also said that after the election, the two parties will be merged, and a coalition government will be formed in the future to build a "better South Korea."
The move came as a surprise to many.
On February 13, An Zhexiu publicly proposed to Yin Xiyue to select a single candidate from the opposition party.
Korean media pointed out at the time that whether Yin Xiyue and An Zhexiu "joined hands to fight against Lee" is the biggest variable in this presidential election.
But in the end, the two sides did not negotiate, and the two parties' plan to launch a single candidate officially "bankrupt" on February 27.
According to Zhan Debin's analysis, Yin Xiyue and An Zhexiu finally chose to cooperate because both sides were under great pressure.
From Yin's point of view, as his approval rating with Lee Jae-myung was getting closer and closer, his sense of urgency increased, so he never gave up joining forces with An; Winning the general election is almost impossible, so there are voices within his National Party urging him not to give up joining forces.
In addition, the entire conservative force in South Korea has also been calling on Yin and An to join forces against Lee for the overall situation.
Zhan Debin said that under such a background, if An Zhexiu continues to refuse to join forces, in case the regime change fails, An Zhexiu will bear moral responsibility.
So in the end, An and Yin chose to join forces to fight against Li Zaiming. Once they win the general election, they can also make political capital.
Early voting began in South Korea on March 4.
Yonhap News Agency reported that in this fierce election battle, Yin Xiyue and An Zhexiu chose to join forces at the last minute, which may have a major impact on the election result.
Li Chengri told a reporter from the Beijing News that An Zhexiu's withdrawal from the election to support Yin Xiyue is obviously beneficial to Yin Xiyue. From the numerical point of view, the total support rate of the two will greatly exceed that of Li Zaiming.
However, "although the political landscape favors the conservative camp, the outcome of the election is still difficult to directly determine."
Zhan Debin also believes that the joint efforts of Yin and An will have a certain impact on the general election, but the closer to the election day, the smaller the impact will be.
Previously, the overseas voting for the South Korean presidential election had ended, and the printing of ballots had also started on February 28 - the names of Yin Xiyue and Ahn Zhexiu appeared on the ballots.
"The pattern of competition between Li Zaiming and Yin Xiyue will not change, and Yin Xiyue and An Zhexiu may not have an absolute advantage when they join forces. There are also many voters who are disappointed by An Zhexiu's decision; on the other hand, it depends on whether Shen Xiangxiu will stick to the end." Zhan Debin said.
Recently, more and more influential figures have announced their support for Lee Jae-ming.
On March 2, local time, Kim Dongyan, the presidential candidate of the opposition New Wave Party, announced his withdrawal from the presidential election in favor of Lee Jae-myung.
On the same day, Park Geun-gyeong, the sister of former South Korean President Park Geun-hye, also "stands in line" and announces his support for Lee Jae-myung.
In fact, some analysts believe that the alliance between Yin and An may have the opposite effect, because it will promote the unity of the progressive supporters, and choose to support Lee Jae-ming in order to continue the progressive government.
According to Yonhap News Agency, data from some polling agencies show that even if Yin and An join forces, Yin Xiyue's approval rating will not be much different from Li Zaiming's.
However, exactly how the data will be for the time being is unknown.
On March 3, South Korea's Central Election Management Commission stated that from that day to 7:30 pm on March 9, the publication of election-related polls was prohibited.
Analysts believe that this move is aimed at preventing inaccurate polls from damaging election fairness.
Zheng Jiyong told a reporter from the Beijing News that the most prominent feature of this South Korean presidential election is its unpredictability. Li Zaiming and Yin Xiyue’s support rates are indistinguishable. The two sides continue to fight, and it is still difficult to predict who will be elected.
"The possible result of this is that no matter who is elected in the end, the gap between his votes and the other candidate's votes may be very small. And this may lead to a certain extent in South Korea after this election, there will be a period of The political chaos of time," Zheng Jiyong said.
Beijing News reporter Xie Lian