When will Washington resort to using its nuclear weapons?

WASHINGTON -

The March 2021 "Interim Strategic Guidance for the US National Security Strategy" included President Joe Biden's administration directing national security agencies to deal immediately with international challenges.

The document exposed Russia and considered it "unable today to enter into a direct and frank confrontation with the United States," then referred to it as "playing a negative role that undermines American power and works to limit its ability to defend itself and its interests."

The Russian war on Ukraine prompted many American observers to call for a review of their country's strategy to use nuclear weapons, especially after President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian nuclear deterrent forces to be put on high alert after the start of the war on Ukraine.

optimistic view

Four years into President Donald Trump, President Biden has adopted an active policy that includes "addressing the existential threat posed by nuclear weapons, so that we can fend off costly arms races and once again demonstrate our credibility in nuclear disarmament."

In his interim strategy, Biden pledged "to take steps to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy, while ensuring that our strategic deterrent remains safe and effective, and that our expanded commitments to deterrence to our allies remain strong and credible."

The Biden administration began a review of the nuclear situation in July 2021, and expected that this review would end in early 2022, but the Ukraine crisis prompted an extension of the time for this review in light of recent developments.

According to a study released days ago by the Congressional Research Service, the review is likely to include details of "when, how and why nuclear weapons might be used to deter adversaries and reassure US allies of its commitment to their defense."

Principle of "no start using"

The adoption of the principle of "no first use" of nuclear weapons would represent a change from the current policy known as "calculated ambiguity", where Washington pledged to refrain from using nuclear weapons against non-possessive states, but did not rule out the initiative to use them in unspecified cases and circumstances.

The policy of "calculated ambiguity" addressed US concerns during the Cold War when, jointly with NATO, it faced numerically superior conventional forces from the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact in Europe.

Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has modified its policy to limit the significant role of nuclear weapons in American national security, but it has not announced that it will not be the first to use them.

In its 2010 Nuclear Posture Review, the administration of former President Barack Obama stated that Washington would "consider the use of nuclear weapons only in extreme circumstances" and would not, under any circumstances, threaten or use those weapons "against non-states and parties to a treaty." Nonproliferation and Nuclear Non-Proliferation Commitment.

But the administration was not prepared to say that the "sole purpose" of American nuclear weapons was to deter nuclear attack, because it could envision a "narrow set of emergency situations" in which nuclear weapons play a role in deterring conventional, chemical or biological attacks.

Achieving American goals

For its part, the Trump administration, in its 2018 Nuclear Posture Review, rejected the idea that the sole purpose of nuclear weapons was to deter nuclear attack, and thus did not adopt a "no-first-use" policy.

She stated that "the United States will consider the use of nuclear weapons only in extreme circumstances to defend the vital interests of the United States and its allies and partners."

But she noted that nuclear weapons contribute to "deterring nuclear and non-nuclear attacks and achieving US goals if deterrence fails."

In such a scenario, some believe that a commitment to the principle of "no first use" would not only undermine deterrence, but could also increase the risk of escalation of conventional wars and the risks of the use of nuclear weapons.

On the other hand, some commentators believe that the "no-first-use" principle could undermine US non-proliferation goals.

Some analysts object to these conclusions, and assert that there is a lack of evidence that the threat of nuclear escalation can deter conventional war, while others point out that America's use of nuclear weapons may provoke a response and ignite an all-out nuclear war.

Some argue that "calculated uncertainty" provides the president with options in times of crisis, while former Secretary of State and Defense John Kerry and Ashton Carter have expressed concern that the "no-first-use" policy could undermine the confidence and security of US allies.

US nuclear capabilities

Although the United States has reduced the number of warheads in its long-range missiles and launchers in accordance with the provisions of the 2010 START treaty, it is also developing new delivery systems over the next 10 to 30 years.

According to official data, Washington has reduced its nuclear weapons from 9,300 nuclear warheads and 1,239 delivery vehicles (launchers, ICBMs, submarines, medium and short-range missiles).

The fleet of American ballistic missile submarines currently consists of 14 Trident submarines, each of which can carry 20 nuclear missiles, 9 of these submarines are deployed in the Pacific Ocean and 5 in the Atlantic Ocean.

The US fleet includes 20 heavy bombers capable of carrying nuclear bombs and missiles, and with the completion of the implementation of the New START treaty in February 2018, the United States has 1,550 nuclear warheads.

The size of the reduction in US nuclear weapons has reached historic levels, as the Biden administration updated these numbers last September, reaching 1,357 nuclear warheads and 800 delivery vehicles.

Specialized experts indicate that the United States can maintain its security with a force ranging between 500 and 1,000 nuclear warheads only.

deter opponents

In recent years, concerns about China increasing its nuclear capabilities have fueled debate about how many nuclear weapons the United States should keep.

In the 2020 edition of the annual report on China's military might, the Pentagon estimated that China has "a stockpile of nuclear warheads since the last century," and predicted that "China's nuclear stockpile will double over the next decade."

The report stated that China "could obtain 700 nuclear warheads by 2027, and is likely to intend to obtain at least 1,000 warheads by 2030."

However, others argue that the current US force is more than enough to deter Russia and China together, because even if China tripled the size of its force, its nuclear warheads would reach between 600 and 900 pieces, which is still much less than the American force of more than 1,500 warheads. Nuclear war spread around the world.