(East-West Question) Feng Zhongping: How can Europe be safe under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, March 3rd: How can Europe be safe under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine?

　　——Interview with Feng Zhongping, Director of the Institute of European Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

　　Author Cui Bailu

　　The conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out suddenly and continued to escalate, and Europe once again became a battlefield for military confrontation, trapped in the whirlpool of the game between great powers.

What does the worsening situation in Russia and Ukraine mean for European countries?

The diplomatic mediation of the major European powers has ended in failure. Can the current large-scale sanctions against Russia and military support to Ukraine help ease the situation?

Will regional turmoil make Europe more dependent on the US-led NATO, or will it further seek "strategic autonomy"?

Feng Zhongping, director of the Institute of European Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, recently accepted an exclusive interview with China News Agency "East and West Questions" to explain this.

The following is a summary of the interview transcript:

China News Service: What is the reason for Russia's military action against Ukraine this time?

Feng Zhongping:

There are two important time points for Russia's military operation against Ukraine. First, on February 21, Russia announced the recognition of the independence of the "Donetsk People's Republic" and "Luhansk People's Republic" in eastern Ukraine. Second, on February 24, Putin announced a special military operation against the Donbas region.

　　Russia's military action may seem sudden, but it is not.

The five rounds of large-scale eastward expansion of NATO have made Russia feel that its strategic space has been severely squeezed, and Ukraine's continuous pursuit of joining NATO has further exacerbated regional tensions.

At the end of 2021, Russia will draw a "red line" for NATO and put forward three requirements: first, NATO will not further expand eastward, especially Ukraine cannot join NATO; second, NATO will not deploy offensive military weapons and equipment to Russia's neighbors; third, NATO's military deployment in Europe should be restored to the status in the 1997 Russia-NATO relationship document signed by both parties (the document stipulates that no troops shall be stationed on the territory of other European countries except for the military forces deployed on the day of the signing of the agreement) .

　　Russia believes this "red line" involves core national security interests and requires legally binding commitments from the West, but the United States and NATO members have not responded directly to these demands.

During this period, instead of easing, tensions continued to escalate.

Russia believes that the West is ignoring its own demands, and finally decided to recognize the two "republics" and take special military operations.

In the early morning of February 26, local time, multiple explosions occurred in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, and fierce fighting broke out in Vasilikiv, a major town south of Kyiv.

The picture shows the flames of the explosion near Kyiv.

China News Service: The major European powers had conducted many diplomatic mediations before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which ended in failure.

What impact did the conflict have on European countries?

Feng Zhongping:

This conflict between Russia and Ukraine will cause a serious setback in the relations between Russia and Western countries, including relations with European countries, reaching the lowest point in the 30 years since the end of the Cold War, surpassing the Crimea crisis in 2014.

The situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate, with European countries bearing the brunt, and the impact will undoubtedly be extremely severe.

　　On the one hand, the refugee crisis caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is unavoidable.

More than 368,000 Ukrainians have fled Ukraine since the war began, and as many as 5 million Ukrainians are expected to flee abroad, the UN refugee agency said on February 27.

If this prediction materializes, the geographically adjacent European countries will face the worst refugee crisis in more than 70 years since the war.

After the "Arab Spring", the influx of refugees intensified the social and economic problems within European countries, and populism became popular.

With the existing problems still lingering, the EU and most European countries are not fully prepared to deal with a new round of refugee crisis.

　　On the other hand, the economic and energy shocks will be more severe.

European countries and Russia are closely linked in economy, trade and energy. Once sanctions are imposed, many bilateral investments and trade will be restricted or even stopped.

Unlike the United States, the EU's direct investment in Russia is 28 times that of the United States, especially in terms of natural gas, oil and other energy sources. Russia is an energy provider for European countries, and Europe is an important export market for Russia.

Under this conflict, the "North Stream No. 2" natural gas pipeline project between Germany and Russia was suspended, and the price of oil and gas in Europe soared rapidly, and European countries may face the risk of energy shortage or even interruption.

So, of course, sanctions hit Russia hard, and vice versa for Europe as well.

On February 26, local time, according to the Ukrainian soldiers present, Ukrainian troops fought with a Russian raid team in Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine.

The picture shows Ukrainian soldiers collecting unexploded artillery shells after the exchange of fire.

China News Service: Will the Russian-Ukrainian conflict make European countries more dependent on the US and its NATO-led military alliance system?

What are the implications for Europe's goal of "strategic autonomy"?

Feng Zhongping:

The EU's strengths are its soft power in economics, trade and politics, but it lacks hard power in military security.

Since the end of World War II, European countries have relied too much on the United States and NATO, a military alliance, and have less autonomy in security and defense.

In the past, every time there was a regional crisis, Europeans felt deeply that they were "paper tigers".

Many practices of abandoning allies after Trump took office in 2017, the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in 2021 and the incident of the Australian nuclear submarine have all made European countries realize that they cannot rely too much on the United States for security issues.

But so far, European countries have not been able to reach a real consensus on common security and defense issues, let alone the formation of an effective security mechanism.

　　There are many European countries, and the EU as a bloc cannot simplify its attitude towards the United States, but needs to be analyzed in detail according to different countries.

　　The Central and Eastern European countries that are geographically close to Russia, such as the three Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) and Poland, regard Russia as a major security threat and hope to protect their own security through NATO. Host an oppositional attitude.

They worry that Europe's strategic autonomy will accelerate the shift of the US's strategic focus, and the result is that the US will no longer provide Europe with military protection.

　　In this Russian-Ukrainian military conflict, U.S. President Biden delivered a speech on the situation in Ukraine, saying that the U.S. military will not fight against Russia in Ukraine, but will defend every inch of the territory of NATO countries.

We have seen that Ukraine is not a member of NATO, and NATO may not send troops to fight, but there are acts of supplying arms to Ukraine and increasing military power in the eastern member states of NATO.

Since the Baltic countries and Poland are all NATO members, for them, this conflict has strengthened their reliance on NATO.

　　For other European countries that support strategic autonomy, especially the major European countries such as France and Germany, this crisis is actually a great test.

France is an advocate and promoter of European strategic autonomy. After French President Macron entered the Elysee Palace in 2017, he proposed to reshape the European Union and other ideas, and has been pushing for European strategic autonomy.

Although Germany both supports and opposes strategic autonomy, it still hopes to expand the overall strength of the EU through cooperation with France in order to reduce its security dependence on other countries.

　　Before the crisis, France and Germany did not play an active role in responding to Russian demands and security issues.

When war was imminent, they realized that Putin's patience was likely to be exhausted, and began to resort to diplomatic mediation, but after the failure of diplomacy, they quickly turned to sanctions, especially the EU's declaration of two "republics" in Russia Sanctions were announced on the second day of independence, and the measures were more severe than those of the United States and the United Kingdom.

　　For these countries, whether they use good offices or sanctions, they have a lot to do with the EU's strategic autonomy.

The EU's past performance is widely seen as too weak when it comes to its own security interests, economic development and relations with its most important neighbor, Russia.

Therefore, I believe that European powers such as France will not give up strategic autonomy because of this conflict, but may instead realize the urgency of strategic autonomy more.

But after all, this is a long-term goal that cannot be achieved in the short term. Therefore, these countries will maintain their existing military alliances with the United States while continuing to pursue the goal of strategic autonomy.

In the early morning of February 27, local time, in Kyiv, Ukraine, the streets of the city center were empty during the curfew.

Kyiv Mayor Klitschko announced that from the 26th, the curfew in the city will be extended from 17:00 to 8:00 the next day.

China News Service: What impact will the Russian-Ukrainian conflict have on the international landscape?

What role should the rest of Europe play in the face of the crisis?

Feng Zhongping:

The impact of this conflict on the international landscape and relations between major powers will be profound and long-term.

After the end of World War II, the international pattern of confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union formed, and the world experienced a 40-year Cold War period.

After the end of the Cold War, the world has entered a post-Cold War period of more than 30 years. Despite the 2014 Crimea crisis and Western sanctions and isolation of Russia, Russia and the West still maintain a relationship of mutual contact.

　　As the United States began to join forces with allies to impose large-scale sanctions on Russia and increased military assistance to Ukraine, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has become more complicated.

I believe that this crisis will trigger a new round of major adjustments in relations between major powers, and the relationship between the West and Russia will enter a new period of comprehensive confrontation, which will bring great changes to the international landscape.

At present, in the context of Russia's military operation, Western countries have asked all countries in the world to choose sides, with great momentum and obvious pressure.

The current situation is constantly changing. It remains to be seen how the situation in Ukraine will develop, the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, and the profound interaction between China, the United States, Russia and Europe.

　　In a rapidly changing situation, Europe should commit itself to a peaceful and diplomatic solution to the Ukrainian issue.

The Russian-Ukrainian issue involves complex historical latitudes and national interests, and cannot follow the trend just because some countries force a side to choose. Cool down instead of adding fuel to the fire, and push for a diplomatic solution instead of escalating the situation further.

(over)

Interviewee Profile:

　　Feng Zhongping, Director of the Institute of European Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Director of the China-Central and Eastern European Research Institute (Budapest), Director of the China-Central and Eastern European Countries Think Tank Exchange and Cooperation Network, Researcher, Doctoral Supervisor, Editor-in-Chief of "European Studies"; China President of the European Society, Vice President of the Chinese Society of International Relations, Vice President (and Secretary General) of the China Society for World Politics, Member of the Expert Committee on Country and Regional Studies of the Ministry of Education, and Director of the Chinese People's Institute of Foreign Affairs.

His main research areas are European strategic issues, European integration, Sino-European relations, European-American relations, NATO, and Chinese diplomacy.