Support for the incumbent government tends to increase in national crises.

This was noticed, for example, in the beginning of the corona pandemic when support increased sharply for Löfven's government.

That the Social Democrats are now moving forward in SVT / Novus' voter barometer is therefore not surprising.

The government has also not made any decisive mistakes and in matters where it was initially on the defensive, the Prime Minister has tried to take the political initiative.

It is obvious that Magdalena Andersson does not want to be accused afterwards of not having acted.

Friday's final report from the Corona Commission contained, among other things, criticism of the government for not being able to "hold the baton" in the initial stages of the pandemic.

Magdalena Andersson does not want that criticism in retrospect.

At the same time, it will be interesting to see upcoming voter surveys.

It is not unreasonable to assume that support for the Social Democrats will continue to increase during the continuing crisis, unless the government steps in and makes major mistakes or appears unable to act.

Imminent anxiety influences

An important explanation for the Social Democrats' rise is thus the concern that has arisen in society due to the deteriorating security situation in Sweden's immediate area.

Other studies support this view.

For example, voters rate the defense issue as an increasingly important political issue.

And even though the war of aggression against Ukraine has only lasted for just over a week, and thus has a limited impact on the electoral barometer, the threat from Russia has been gradually discussed more and more in recent months.

These are both angry statements from the Kremlin and the extensive military build-up that preceded the attack on Ukraine.

In this situation, the government also has the advantage that both Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson and Minister of Defense Peter Hultqvist have high confidence figures among voters.

Andersson is high above other party leaders and Hultqvist is one of the government ministers with the highest confidence.

In the current crisis, it is above all these two politicians who meet the voters.

Another aspect that may affect the increased voter support for the Social Democrats is that the Green Party has left the government.

How the war can affect domestic politics

The war in Ukraine could have far-reaching consequences for Swedish domestic policy.

Among other things, this means that other issues are pushed aside from the political debate, which can be of great importance in the autumn election campaign.

It is also about issues related to national security, including preparedness, defense capability and a possible NATO membership, becoming more important to voters.

The only statistically significant change in SVT / Novus 'voter barometer is the Social Democrats' rise to 32 percent (+2.7).

Other changes are not statistically significant, but still indicate that the Moderates seem to be increasing slightly, while other parties seem to be losing voter support.

In a situation where national security is at the top of the political agenda, it will be more difficult for parties such as the Sweden Democrats and the Left Party.

Jimmie Åkesson's statements about Vladimir Putin are not likely to attract new voters in a crisis like this, nor is the Left Party's refusal to assist Ukraine with weapons for the defense against Russia.

Party barometer, 31 January to 27 February 2022. Photo: SVT / Novus

For the Liberals (2.1%) and the Green Party (3.2%), the situation remains crisis-ridden.

They are clearly under parliamentary blockade and will find it difficult to penetrate the political debate as long as security and foreign policy dominate the agenda.