Countdown to South Korea's Election: Divide, Confusion and Variables
"The general election is coming next week, and I haven't been able to make a decision yet." Ms. Park, a 36-year-old Korean housewife, told The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) that she started to vote for the government a few months ago. The party's co-democratic candidate Lee Jae-ming was also distressed by the biggest opposition party's National Power Party candidate Yin Xiyue, and then hesitated because too much negative news was exposed between the two.
"I've thought about it, or I'll vote for (the National Party candidate) An Zhexiu?" In the face of the upcoming 20th presidential election on the 9th of this month, Ms. Park said frankly that this will determine the future of South Korea, but she herself It is still difficult to make a final choice.
There are not a few South Koreans who have similar ideas to Ms. Park. Since the election, due to rumors and scandals involving popular candidates, the South Korean general election was once "out of focus". The outcome is also unpredictable.
From Li Zaiming being trapped in the corruption-related incident in the real estate development project in Dazhuang-dong, Seongnam City, Gyeonggi Province, to Yin Xiyue’s wife being accused of falsifying her resume, and her mother-in-law being sentenced for forging a passbook balance certificate, from the candidate’s exposure to “divination culture” to “witchcraft” disputes , to the "gaps" of the debate competition, which led to mutual attacks... The "Korea Times" report pointed out that the South Korean election under the scandal was called "unpopular presidential election", which also led to two popular candidates for a long time. The approval ratings of the two countries are evenly matched, and no "front runners" have emerged so far, which is extremely rare in previous general elections in South Korea.
On March 2, the South Korean general election entered the 7th countdown. In the final sprint stage, the single-candidate negotiation of the opposition party, which was once regarded by the Korean media as a "variable" in the general election, has been shattered, and the candidate's foreign policy has become the focus of the campaign.
But under many unstable factors, it is still uncertain where South Korean voters will vote.
The end of the "battle" of the opposition parties
When the main candidate lineup was finally released in mid-February, whether Yin Xiyue and An Zhexiu would join forces to push a single candidate once aroused concern.
At that time, An Zhexiu proposed to Yin Xiyue to select a single candidate through a public opinion election survey, but the National Power had doubts about the implementation of this proposal.
In the past few weeks, consultations and discussions between the two sides have been uninterrupted, but after all, no substantial progress has been made on this issue, and the goal of "jointly fighting against Li" has almost been shattered.
"I have always treated each other with sincerity and tried my best. Only me and candidate An Zhexiu have to adjust the schedule of the talks." According to the "Central Daily" report, on February 27, Yin Xiyue said in an emergency press conference that An Zhexiu was the only one left. It has unilaterally announced that the negotiation has broken down, and said that An Zhexiu has resigned.
In this regard, An Zhexiu retorted that the content proposed by Yin Xiyue was not worth considering. An Zhexiu believed that Yin Xiyue's claim was inconsistent with the facts, and said that the National Power did not express any opinions, and did not explain "why did not accept the poll election method" .
"The single-candidate negotiation has 'expired'." An Zhexiu said decisively after that, the discussion "the time limit has come" and there is no possibility that there is still room for negotiation.
Previously, many media had predicted that once the two successfully "held a group", Li Zaiming feared that he would be at a disadvantage in the election, and the general election pattern would also undergo unpredictable changes.
The failure of the two sides to achieve joint election by the opposition after the continuous tug-of-war seems to have had a certain impact on the general election pattern.
Li Jiacheng, an associate professor at the School of International Relations at Liaoning University, told The Paper that when Yin Xiyue and Li Zaiming's approval ratings were anxious and within the margin of error in many cases, An Zhexiu would play a very good role in dividing the votes and divide the conservative supporters. Some of the votes were divided.
"Generally speaking, it may be a good thing for Lee Jae-ming to lose a single candidate together," said Lee Jia-cheng, "but we can't just use a certain event or a factor to infer who will win in the end. The general election still involves many aspects. Variables."
On the contrary, on the same day that the unification of candidates in the opposition circle announced a "break", the Common Democratic Party also held a plenary meeting of parliamentarians and unanimously passed the previously proposed political reform bill.
The "Korea Times" reported that the reform plan formulated the "reformed electoral system" that reflects the actual multi-party system, the Prime Minister's National Assembly recommendation system, the constitutional revision of the four-year two-term system of the president, and the implementation of the presidential runoff voting system. Transforming a Congress currently dominated by two major parties into one where "power is shared more equally by several different parties".
The "Dong-A Ilbo" emphasized that this is a "political strategy" for the looming presidential election, and the reform case reflects the Democratic Party's intention to use the political reform case as a "joint bond" with candidates such as Ahn Cheol-soo and Justice Party candidate Shen Sang-seo ".
Foreign policy hype continues
After the official election of the election, due to the continuous emergence of candidates' disputes and scandals, diplomatic-related issues were once covered up. Even after the DPRK conducted multiple test launches in January this year, the foreign policies proposed by the candidates from both sides failed to attract strong attention. .
However, under the recent tense situation in Russia and Ukraine, foreign policy has also become a focus of attention.
Yonhap News Agency reported that the two popular candidates have expressed their views on this, emphasizing their respective foreign policy visions.
According to a previous report by "Reference News", in terms of foreign policy, the biggest focus of this South Korean presidential election is: Will Lee Jae-myung, who follows the position of the current President Moon Jae-in's government and adopts a pro-DPRK and anti-Japan line, win?
Or can Yin Xiyue, who holds an anti-DPRK stance and attaches great importance to South Korea-US-Japan cooperation, achieve regime change?
The two people's completely different ideas have caused many tongue battles, and in the presidential election televised debate on the theme of diplomacy and national security at the end of February, the foreign policy discussion around the recent situation in Russia and Ukraine escalated again, and Li Zaiming and Yin Xiyue had differences in it.
According to the "Korea Times" report, Lee Jae-myung emphasized that what South Korea needs is to focus on pragmatism in solving problems, and in dealing with problems, national consensus is the most important.
Lee Jae-myung also previously published an article in "Foreign Affairs" to define North Korea's nuclear and missile programs as the biggest diplomatic challenge facing South Korea, and said he would upgrade the South Korea-US alliance and maintain the South Korea-China partnership.
And Yin Xiyue clearly emphasized the importance of South Korea-US cooperation and strengthening deterrence capabilities on the same day.
Yin Xiyue also pointed out in an article in "Foreign Affairs" that almost all the diplomatic forces of the Moon Jae-in government are focused on improving relations with the DPRK. Disagreements over North Korea policy priorities have shaken the South Korea-U.S. alliance.
"Building a solid South Korea-US alliance is the central axis to consolidate South Korea's diplomacy," the article said.
It is worth mentioning that Lee Jae-myung said in a televised debate that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky "lacks diplomatic experience", etc., which has recently been strongly criticized in and out of South Korea.
"Dong-A Ilbo" reported that although Lee Jae-ming later apologized and said the remarks were pointing out Yin Xiyue's "disturbing" views on diplomacy and security, and clarified his attitude of "full support for the position and efforts of the Ukrainian people and government", the aftermath still remains Not yet stopped.
The "Korea Times" pointed out that in previous presidential elections, foreign affairs seldom became a major campaign issue, but under the current volatile situation, "national security issues" have been pushed to the top position in the election campaign.
2030 "vote warehouse" has been decided?
As the "calendar" of the countdown to South Korea's general election continues to turn pages, the trend of the votes of young people aged 20 to 39, who are regarded as the "decisive vote", has attracted more attention.
Earlier, Myongji University professor Shin Sul pointed out in an interview with News1 that the "support" and "loyalty" of the youth to specific political figures are inherently low. Although there is a sense of progressive or conservative identity, this will also be based on Changes in policies and commitments represented by each camp.
Therefore, in the volatile situation, since the two candidates took the stage, it seems that there are not a few voters who have not made a final decision and have not "opened their hearts" to either candidate. When it was fermented, it flowed to An Zhexiu, all of which made the "variables" of the general election continue to increase.
But with Election Day approaching, the direction of the young group seems to be clear now.
Korea International Broadcasting Station (KBS) reported that due to the choice of swing voters, the approval ratings of Yin Xiyue in January and Li Zaiming in February increased respectively, resulting in the disappearance of the gap in the approval ratings between the two. The current approval rate is flat, announced on February 28 The results of the KBS poll showed that Lee Jae-myung and Yin Xiyue both had 39.8% approval ratings.
Looking at different age groups, the two candidates are evenly matched in the support ratings of 30-39 year olds, with Lee Jae-ming leading the 40-49-year-old group and Yin Xiyue leading the younger and older groups .
In this regard, News1 also published an article pointing out that the results of recent public opinion surveys show that the support of the 20-year-old group is concentrated on Yin Xiyue, while in the 30-year-old group, Li Zaiming is dominant or the two are on a par.
Li Jiacheng said that in the last general election, most of these young people supported the progressive camp and belonged to the main force of the "Candlelight Revolution".
However, during the five-year period of Moon Jae-in's administration, Moon Jae-in failed to make obvious achievements in internal affairs, especially in housing price control, which turned some voters who originally belonged to the progressive vote base.
Although this seems to be a relatively favorable result for Yin Xiyue, the report also pointed out that the situation may still change, and the voting participation rate may become a major variable affecting the general election.
In this regard, Yu Sanghu, head of the General Democratic Party's Countermeasures Committee, also said at the end of February that the "abstention rate" of the 20-year-old group seems to be high, and the response rate of this voter group is not very optimistic in public opinion surveys.
"Because this group has a low willingness to vote and hides its intentions, it is very difficult to analyze its voting psychology." He admitted in an interview with the media.
In addition, it is not clear how much the results of the polls will be reflected in the general election. If the voter turnout is relatively low, it is unclear which side will benefit the ruling party or the opposition party in the end.
In this regard, Li Jiacheng said that in this general election, the election strategy committees of all parties have set up youth strategy committees to try to capture the votes of young people between the ages of 20 and 39.
Although Yin Xiyue's support rate among young people may be high at present, Li Zaiming is also seeking their support.
For example, Li Zaiming launched some policies different from the current Moon Jae-in government in terms of youth employment and property market regulation, and also held youth symposiums.
"Right now, there is good news about each other's mutual benefits, and there are also bad factors at work. At present, various remarks in the canvassing activities may still have an impact on the trend of the election." Li Jiacheng pointed out that under many unstable factors, Until the final "mystery" is not easy to uncover.