(International Observation) Will the Ukrainian crisis cut off the energy ties between Europe and Russia?
China News Agency, Berlin, February 28th: Can the Ukrainian crisis cut the energy ties between Europe and Russia?
China News Agency reporter Ma Xiuxiu
German Chancellor Scholz said on the 27th local time that Germany has decided to speed up the construction of two liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals in the country to help reduce its dependence on Russian gas imports.
This is a new sign that Germany has readjusted its energy policy since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
From suspending the approval process of the "Beixi-2" natural gas pipeline project to readjusting its energy policy, can Germany, which is highly dependent on Russian energy, find an alternative this time?
As the West continues to impose sanctions on Russia and the hostility between the two sides continues to rise, will the Ukraine crisis "cut" the energy link between Europe and Russia?
Germany's energy dilemma is unbearable "sorrow"
Germany and Europe depend to a considerable extent on Russia for energy imports, including natural gas, crude oil and coal.
Data from the German Statista statistics company shows that as of 2020, Germany's dependence on Russian energy imports has reached 49%.
Since the winter of last year, the whole of Europe has been plagued by the energy crisis, with rising prices and tension between supply and demand.
According to German media reports, in September 2021, the price of natural gas used by the German public rose to 44 euros per megawatt hour from 8 euros in the same period in 2020.
When the temperature drops, some residents with lower economic income choose not to turn on the heating in order to save money, preferring to suffer from the cold.
Before the outbreak of the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict, European countries had begun to think about finding alternative suppliers of natural gas to meet household heating and lighting needs.
After the escalation of the conflict, a research report released by the German Allianz Group recently pointed out that in terms of energy, in addition to Russia, Europe has limited alternatives.
If Russia completely cuts off gas supplies to Europe, European gas prices could climb to an average of 140 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh) and inflation in the euro zone could surge.
This will undoubtedly make the lives of people in European countries, including Germany, "worse".
Sanctions prudent, Germany seeks energy diversification path
On the 26th, Germany, the United States, France, Canada, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the European Union jointly adopted more severe financial sanctions against Russia, and some Russian banks will be excluded from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT).
In an interview with a reporter from China News Agency on the 28th, Shi Shiwei, a visiting professor at the Free University of Berlin, analyzed that Germany is cautious in imposing sanctions on Russia.
Only a few of Russia's larger banks are currently sanctioned, and energy payments can still be made.
On the other hand, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine forced Germany to adjust its energy policy and seek a path to energy diversification.
In response to Germany's previous plans to phase out coal and nuclear power, Lars Feld, adviser to German Finance Minister Christian Lindner, pointed out that the German government must ensure energy supply security; in the current conflict In this context, coal and nuclear phase-out plans need to be revisited.
According to German media reports, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has accelerated the pace of Germany’s energy transition, making the development of renewable energy including wind energy and solar energy more urgent.
Scholz said two liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, which are being built at an accelerated pace, could also handle green hydrogen in the future.
Considering multiple factors, it is difficult to break the energy ties between Europe and Russia
Under the prudent sanctions, Germany has now prepared for Russia's energy supply cut off.
So will the energy ties between European countries, including Germany, and Russia be disconnected?
German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said via media that he believed that Russia would continue to supply Germany with energy such as natural gas "because Russia needs revenue."
According to Peter Adrian, chairman of the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK), other channels will struggle to fill the gap caused by Russia's energy outage.
"Norway's supply of natural gas to us is already at its limit, and the U.S. can't make up for it with LNG."
Gazprom said on the 27th that the company's supply of natural gas to Europe via Ukraine remained normal.
"Despite the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia will not completely cut off its energy supply to Europe due to factors such as economy, public opinion, and morality." Shi Shiwei also pointed out that due to cost and energy security considerations, Germany has purchased energy from the United States and other countries. Importing liquefied natural gas is only a "stop solution" to the energy dilemma.
He expects that the energy ties between Europe and Russia will not be broken. "In the long run, the 'North Stream-2' natural gas pipeline project may also be restarted." (End)