Will Russia's war on Ukraine renew Western dreams of overthrowing President Putin?

Washington

- In his speech a few days ago on the developments of events in Ukraine, US President Joe Biden described his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, as a tyrant, and said, "Many tyrants believe that the world is changing against them. The historical turning point we are living in now will lead to major changes in the next decade. Which doesn't happen often."

Biden added, "There is a real opportunity to maintain world stability and reduce tension in many parts, after we foiled Putin's plan. There are significant negative consequences for Russia as a result of Putin's move, the invasion of Ukraine, while the Western camp benefits from it."

"There is a real chance that Putin will pay a heavy price for this invasion in the long run, and ultimately fail," he added decisively.

Commentators and officials have different opinions regarding the price that the Russian president must pay for waging a war, which they see as unjustified against Ukraine.

Will Putin stay until 2036?

Putin was first elected president in 2000 - except for the period between 2008 and 2012 when his ally Dmitry Medvedev was president - Putin rules without any competition and with limitless powers.

President Putin's current term of office continues until 2024, and Putin anticipates this date by making constitutional amendments in 2020 that allow him to remain in power until 2036, when he will be 84 years old.

At the same time, the war on Ukraine, which was contrary to international law and the traditions of the European continent, renewed the view of many representatives of the American and European political elites about the necessity of considering the overthrow of the Russian president personally.

Pressure on those close to Putin

In coordination with European and Asian allies and partners, Washington imposed sanctions on President Putin and 3 senior Russian officials (the Minister of Foreign Affairs, the Minister of Defense, and the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces), in addition to dozens of senior businessmen and rich people of Russia known for their closeness to President Putin.

Washington and European capitals also imposed huge and unprecedented sanctions aimed at paralyzing the Russian financial and banking sector, with the targeting of the Central Bank, and Russia's dealings in the "SWIFT" system for remittances.

Many Russians lost their wealth as a result, and the value of the Russian ruble fell to record levels against the dollar and the euro.

Western sanctions are aimed at showing the high cost of President Putin's continued rule, and they also try to facilitate the Russian elite's restlessness over the consequences of Putin's decision to launch war on Ukraine.

American circles believe that without the support of the Russian financial and industrial elite, it will be difficult for Putin, in theory, to maintain his strong control over the joints of the Russian state.

Peter Bergen, an international affairs expert at the New America Foundation, questioned the impact of sanctions on Putin, and said that "authoritarian regimes generally get rid of the impact of strict sanctions at the expense of their people. Look at North Korean President Kim Jong Un today, or Saddam Hussein, the president of Iraq. During the 1990s, US sanctions had minimal consequences for their regimes."

Putin has to pay a heavy price

For its part, the Economist magazine - one of the most important weekly magazines in the world - in its latest issue asked several questions related to the Russian president, and said, "What does this man want? Now that it has become clear that he yearns for war, the next question is : Where will it stop?

The magazine demanded that Putin pay for his war, and The Economist noted, "The odious truth is that Mr. Putin launched an unprovoked attack on a sovereign neighboring country. He is obsessed with the defense alliance to its west (NATO). He tramples the principles on which peace is based in the 21st century. And that is why the world must make him pay a heavy price for his aggression.”

A number of former US officials have questioned Putin's credibility, highlighting the dangers of his remaining president of a major country that has the second largest military nuclear power in the world.

“When tyrants rule for decades, they stop listening to advisors, become disconnected from reality, spend a lot of time on their own, and do uncalculated actions,” tweeted Michael McFaul, the former US ambassador to Russia and official on the National Security Council under former President Barack Obama. Beyond borders, and that's exactly what happened to Putin."

While David Froome - the Republican commentator and former writer of speeches for former President George W. Bush - doubted that President Putin had reached an acceptable solution, and said, "I strongly support providing a suitable exit for President Putin that saves his face in the ongoing war, but if we remember how many times he failed to avoid the current impasse. It's hard to be optimistic about the current predicament."

Russian forces failed to capture major cities in Ukraine during the first days of the fighting (Reuters)

Putin's days may be numbered

As for the Secretary of State for Armed Forces Affairs and British Member of Parliament, James Heibe, he said - in a newspaper interview - that "Putin's days will be numbered if he fails in Ukraine, at a time when his military campaign has fallen far behind its planned schedule."

Hebei, a former major in the British army, said Putin's forces were unable to capture major cities in Ukraine during the first few days of fighting as intended, according to a report in the British newspaper, Telegraph.