To analyse

War in Ukraine: the destabilized ex-Soviet republics desperately seek balance

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Thursday, Feb. 10, 2022. AP - Mikhail Klimentyev

Text by: Régis Genté Follow

3 mins

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia worries many in the former Soviet republics.

The former colonial power is often perceived there as aggressive and arrogant towards them, but also as a country where work can be found.

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From our correspondent in Tbilisi

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The attack on Ukraine by the Russian "big brother" is rather badly, even very badly perceived by the former Soviet republics.

Generally speaking, we feel almost everywhere, as much in the Caucasus as in Central Asia, or in Moldavia, a great disgust to see once again Russia only bringing tanks into its vicinity.

All against a background of national pride, which we claim.

A variable geometry of mistrust

There are, however, fairly marked nuances, depending on the political relations that these former Soviet republics have with Moscow.

This invasion arouses fear and anger in

, which suffered the same kind of aggression, for the same reasons finally, in 2008. In Azerbaijan, the population is somewhat in the same mood, remembering that Russia had supported the Armenians to regain control of the province of Nagorno-Karabakh from their Republic in the early 1990s.

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Distrust also in Armenia, but with more “understanding” with regard to Russia because the country relied on Moscow for its security, in the face of Azerbaijani and Turkish enemies.

We are in a postcolonial context and this weighs heavily in the condemnation of Russian aggression, especially since the perception that prevails in all these countries is that Russia behaves in a very contemptuous way towards post-Soviet peoples.

That she never admitted their independence.

But it also goes beyond this one question.

Societies which in twenty years, and according to the multiple upheavals, increasingly reject the authoritarian model promoted by Moscow, with its facade traditionalism, its corruption, its injustices.

And even when a crisis erupts for purely internal reasons, such as that of 2015 in Armenia where the population protested against an increase in the price of electricity, or as in the summer of 2020 in Belarus against President Lukashenko's fraud during the presidential election, Russia ends up being criticized because more often than not, it supports dictators and corrupt regimes in the region.

► To read also: 30 years after the fall of the USSR, the exile of dissidents continues

An economic dependence

The economic consequences also explain these reactions to the war in Ukraine.

In any case, they worry millions of labor migrants from the former republics of the Soviet Union, who could lose their jobs in Russia, often in construction or small trade.

Their families are sometimes 100% dependent on the money sent each month.

There are a dozen million labor migrants in Russia.

No doubt 2.5 million Uzbeks, one and a half Tajiks, more than 500,000 Armenians.

In these countries, remittances to families account for up to 30% of GDP.

This is the case of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

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