What is transmitted every day is the vivid reality of war.

Victims continue to grow and many are deciding to leave their homeland.



For the first time since Russia began its military invasion of Ukraine, both sides have reached the table of negotiations for a ceasefire.



What will happen in the future?

We analyze the latest situation in an easy-to-understand manner.

Latest analysis 1. Russia Ukraine first negotiations Will a ceasefire be realized?

A delegation of Russia and Ukraine negotiated for about five hours in southeastern Belarus, which borders Ukraine, on the 28th.

The Ukrainian side is calling for an immediate ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian troops.

The Ukrainian side appears to be urging the withdrawal of Russian troops, especially urging them to stop attacks on civilian facilities and civilians.


The Russian side says that Ukraine's ▼ neutralization and ▼ demilitarization are conditions for a ceasefire.

Of these, "neutralization" is expected to legally ensure that Ukraine does not join the NATO = North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

In addition, "demilitarization" is expected to include the removal of the latest anti-tank missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles supported by NATO member countries with the aim of disarming Ukraine.

It also demands that Russia recognize Russia's sovereignty over the Crimean Peninsula in southern Ukraine, which Russia unilaterally annexed in 2014.



Can both sides come together?



After the negotiations, the Russian White House Chief of Staff, White House Chief of Staff, said, "All agendas will be discussed in detail and in some respects a common ground will be found." And the prospect of negotiating in the border area of ​​Poland.



Meanwhile, the Ukrainian delegation's adviser to the presidential palace, Podryak, also suggested on Twitter that some progress had been made, saying that "the last commute that was being struck by Russia is gone."



However, he said, "Negotiations are difficult. The Russian side is sticking to the destructive process that they started."

After the meeting, President Zelensky posted a video statement on Facebook saying, "We haven't reached the conclusions we want yet. Russia has asserted its position and argued for a ceasefire. From the Russian side. Received a solid signal. When the negotiators return to Kyiv, they will analyze and decide how to proceed with the second round of negotiations. "



I am still not optimistic whether future negotiations will lead to a ceasefire.

Latest analysis 2. What is the status of the military invasion?

President Zelensky posted a video message on Facebook on the 28th.



"The Russian military attack has killed 16 children and injured 45 in the last four days, with casualties in each attack," he said.



Maxar Technologies, an American private company that operates satellites, analyzes images of Russian convoys taken on the 28th local time.

▼ Russian troops head south toward Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine.


The head of the convoy is on the highway along


Antonov

Airport, about 27 km northwest of the center.

Many military vehicles and attack helicopters are also deployed on the Belarusian side beyond.

Is a large unit mobilized for Kyiv?

In addition, a senior US Department of Defense official released the latest analysis on the situation of the military invasion of the Russian army on the 28th.

▼ Nearly 75% of the combat forces deployed around the border were put into Ukraine


▼ More than 380 missiles were launched


▼ 5 km forward in the past day toward the capital Kiev, about 25 north At

the point of kilometer


▼ Attempts to invade Ukraine's second largest city, Kharkiv, and eastern Donetsk Oblast, Mariupol.

However, fierce battles have continued and it has not been suppressed


. ▼ Air superiority throughout Ukraine has not been taken.

Ukrainian military aircraft and missile defense systems are maintained

A spokesman for the U.S. Department of Defense, Kirby, said on the 28th, "It's a few days behind what the Russians expected," and said it wasn't proceeding as planned.



He pointed out that the reason was that Russian troops were receiving more intense resistance than expected from the Ukrainian side, and that they were facing a shortage of supplies such as fuel needed for the operation.



He also analyzes that the Ukrainian army, which opposes the Russian army, is "very effectively resisting" and is pushing back the Russian army using weapons provided by the United States and other countries.

Latest Analysis 3. Should We Worry About Nuclear War?

On February 27, Putin ordered the defense minister and others to raise deterrence to a special alert with nuclear forces in mind.



A senior U.S. Department of Defense official pointed out on the 28th, "We are monitoring the Russian side, but we have not yet confirmed any concrete movements under the order of President Putin."



President Biden also responded, "I don't need to," when asked by reporters, "Should Americans be worried about nuclear war?"



Saki, a spokesman for the White House, criticized Putin, saying, "Provocative remarks with nuclear weapons in mind can lead to risks due to misunderstandings."



"Neither the United States nor NATO is going to fight Russia. We are scrutinizing President Putin's orders, but at this point we have no reason to change the alert level," he said. I'm emphasizing.

What is the status of evacuation abroad?

UNHCR = United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees revealed on the 28th that more than 500,000 people have been evacuated from Ukraine.



The station in Lviv, a city in western Ukraine near the border with Poland, is full of people trying to catch trains to Poland and elsewhere, and some are forced to change their destinations in order to escape abroad.



In Ukraine, men aged 18 to 60 are restricted from leaving the country in order to strengthen their defense posture, so there are a number of cases in which women and children evacuate abroad and their families are separated.

What will happen in the future?

Russia and Ukraine delegations are expected to negotiate within a few days, but there is no doubt that the war situation will affect the outcome of the negotiations.



High-ranking Pentagon officials have pointed out that Russian troops are still making invasion of Kyiv as their main operation, and that they will continue to move forward and siege Kyiv within a few days.



"It is unlikely that Russian troops will remain stagnant, and will try to overcome the resistance and challenges of Ukrainian troops," Kirby said.



Also diplomatic bargaining.



President Zelensky officially applied for membership in the EU-European Union on the 28th.



Ukraine signed an agreement with the EU to strengthen relations, including trade liberalization, shortly after the merger of the Southern Crimean Peninsula with Russia in 2014, but this is the first time it has officially applied for membership.



Western support is indispensable to counter Russia, and it seems that the aim is to clarify that stance by applying for membership in the EU.



The focus is also on President Putin's actions, which determine all of Russia's moves.



President Putin held a telephone meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron on the 28th, emphasizing that the ceasefire is only conditional on the demilitarization of Ukraine and the neutralization that leads to the prevention of accession to NATO.



Putin's tough stance has not changed and is expected to make negotiations even more difficult.