Francis Fukuyama - author of "The End of History and the Last Man" - says that the world stands today at a critical moment, because the success of Russian President Vladimir Putin in overthrowing democracy in Ukraine and replacing it with his own regime will set a horrific precedent for the use of pure force, and will inspire China to reintegrate Taiwan, It would also mean humiliation for the United States and NATO, and from which the whole world would understand that American promises of support are just empty words and that cooperation among democracies is a mirage.

This came in an article translated by Peggy Sastre for the French magazine Le Point on the Australian online magazine Kate, in which the famous American historian spoke of the need to support Ukraine against what he called "Russian aggression", saying that Russian forces are pouring into the outskirts of the Ukrainian capital. Kyiv, in a large-scale military offensive launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin with the stated aim of overthrowing the democratically elected government and replacing it with a Moscow-controlled regime.


weak excuses

Fukuyama said he knows Ukraine well, because he has run a series of leadership training programs for Ukrainian activists and civil servants interested in reforming their country, noting that this country suffers from a high level of corruption, but a new rising generation of people imbued with democratic values ​​and willing to join the Europe, instead of Russia, "ruled by a corrupt regime," as he put it.

Therefore, Fukuyama takes the Russian war seriously - he says - because "many of my friends, human rights activists, journalists and anti-corruption activists, will be the first targets of the pro-Moscow regime if it comes to power."

Before the war, many observers believed that Putin was maneuvering and that the administration of US President Joe Biden was exaggerating the threat, but the movement of Russian forces and the Kremlin's propaganda have revived an old debate in Europe and the United States about the threat of NATO expansion to Russia, and about the responsibility of the United States in the situation At present, many "realists" even called for giving Russia a certain sphere of influence on the territory of the former Soviet Union, and negotiating the neutralization of Ukraine.

The Russian arguments before the war were flimsy - as Fukuyama sees - because Ukraine's entry into NATO was just theoretical talk, because to say that Ukraine is a fascist and neo-Nazi state, or that it is carrying out a genocide of the Russian-speaking population in Donbass, or that it is preparing for a large-scale military operation against Russia, "Each's justifications are more ridiculous than the other."

The writer concluded that all these pretexts emptied the war of its meaning, and it became clear that the threat goes in only one direction, from Russia to Ukraine, but may extend to all countries bordering Russia and perhaps beyond that.


Putin's motives

It is not difficult to determine Putin's motives - as the historian says - because he elaborated at length his vision of the world and his strategic goals;

He declared - a few years ago - that the disintegration of the Soviet Union was the greatest tragedy of the twentieth century, and that Ukraine is not an independent nation, and that it is an essential part of Russia. In fact, it appeared during recent negotiations that the requests related to NATO do not belong to Ukraine only, but include all the countries that She has joined the organization since the 1990s.

In other words, according to Fukuyama, Putin wants to restore the former Soviet Union as much as possible, neutralize Eastern Europe and reduce it to a buffer zone, and completely dismantle the edifice of "a whole and free Europe" that was built after 1991.

"Today we stand at a very important moment in world history, because democratic Ukraine is in fact threatening Putin," Fukuyama says, noting that it poses a threat to the Russian people, but rather to Putin's idea of ​​a fundamental incompatibility between democracy and Slavic peoples that naturally gravitate toward the leadership of the Russian people. Strong and central, in his opinion.

Thus, the success of democratic Ukraine and its desire to join Europe means - for Putin - the possibility of a similar development in Russia, which raises the alarm of his demise and the demise of “Putinism”, and this is the secret that he has not and will never be satisfied with the establishment of a neutral Ukraine and a non-member of NATO, Because as long as it is a democracy, this undermines his discourse and dictates the need to eliminate it.


stumble attack

In addition to all of the above, Fukuyama believes that Putin may have made a grave mistake, as the invasion sparked mass protests in Russia, and took by surprise those who promote and defend the Russian line, and, on the other hand, united the Ukrainian people as it did not unite them something before, and made him show an incredible determination to defend himself.

As for the military level, Putin does not have enough forces to control a country with a population of about 40 million people, not even over a city like Kyiv with a population of 2.8 million - according to the historian - and NATO was able to unite in imposing severe sanctions, including In that German decision to cancel the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.

In addition, Fukuyama believes that this attack may involve the Russian army in a street war that will cause heavy losses among the Ukrainians, but also bring countless Russians home in shrouds, noting that the Russians are amazed that their military investments are mainly used to kill their Slav brothers and destroy A country with which they feel closely connected.

And the American historian concluded his article with what he imagines to be the repercussions of the war on American domestic politics, stressing that Putin's success in his "aggression" against Ukraine - if the Republican Party chooses to follow former President Donald Trump in his admiration for the actions of the Russian president - will decisively sever the ropes of all basic American democratic values ​​as well. That would only reinforce the authoritarian transformation into which this party has drifted, and would be a very bad omen for the free world given the importance of the United States in maintaining a liberal world order.