Economic power is not enough.. Why did Russia's war on Ukraine change Germany's political constants?

In November 2019, German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer in the government of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel demanded that the German army participate in military missions outside the country to protect its strategic interests, and not stand on the sidelines, which called - at the time - Merkel to increase financial allocations to the German army .

But the political and military developments that took place after that proposal, especially the Russian war on Ukraine and the military support provided by Berlin to Kiev, prompted German officials to work on a new strategy that was different from what had been before. Conditions became favorable for Germany to be a major military power and not just a major economic power.

The Russian attack on Ukraine constituted a defining moment not in the history of Ukraine, but in the history of Europe, with Germany at its heart.

The German sovereign decisions surprised the whole world, as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced in the German Parliament (Bundestag) that his country would work to provide Ukraine with weapons, and addressed the Russian President in his name without a title, and spoke about the dangers to freedom and democracy in Ukraine, and that this war threatens security European in general.

The German move to supply Ukraine with weapons is a departure from the norm in Germany's military policy after World War II and since 1955, when it was allowed to form an army that would not participate in hostilities outside Germany, or for Germany to contribute to supplying conflicting parties with weapons in the world.

What has changed in German politics?

Will we witness the rebirth of a Germany that is as strong militarily as it is economically strong?

German politics has changed

Former German politician and parliamentarian Jamal Karsali told Al-Jazeera Net that Germany has reached a complete conviction that the Russian government is lying, as described by the German Foreign Minister, and added that German policy has already changed, "at a time when it raises its budget 300% and says we have to prepare our army more and prepare for all Possibilities, we can say that the German giant with its economy, technology and advanced industries has risen, and this coincides with the German people standing behind the government.

Regarding the position of the government coalition, Karselli said that what is remarkable is the unified opinion in the government coalition and the support of the Green Party to strengthen Germany militarily, which is the party coming from the peace movement. .

The former parliamentarian believes that there is an acceleration in armaments that will happen, and the left party may oppose the increase in the military budget, and the reason for this is that it is a remnant of the Communist Party in East Germany. Democrat".

German support is an expression of sovereignty

Regarding the reflection of the German decision to support Ukraine on the German economy, political economist Abdul Nabi Abdul Muttalib said that Russia is Germany's largest trading partner, as the volume of trade exchange between the two countries reached about $50 billion, according to preliminary data on foreign trade between Russia and Germany.

The financial services exchanged between the two countries amount to several times this amount, and therefore the German position in support of Ukraine will negatively affect the German economy for several reasons, including: the loss of a large market such as the Russian market, and Germany will be affected at the energy level by the stopping of gas, as the German industry depends on Russian gas Cheap in saving 50% of its energy needs.

Abdul Muttalib added that stopping the Nord Stream 2 line would deprive Germany of great profits that it would have obtained as a result of the passage of Russian gas through its territory, but the German decision is an expression of German sovereignty, and that there has been a major change in German foreign policy, especially with regard to European security. .

Regarding the reasons that prompted Germany to support Ukraine with weapons, political analyst Mahmoud al-Jaf said that Germany’s tendency to support Ukraine, and to re-spread the German military spirit anew, is natural as a result of Germany’s knowledge of “Russian criminality,” and that “Ukraine is only a temporary stage and will be followed by the invasion of other European countries.” .

Al-Jaf added - to Al-Jazeera Net - that there are old problems between Russia and Germany, whether what the Soviet forces did after the occupation of Berlin and the tragedies it left for the German people, or on the religious level, as indicated by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

He pointed out that this threatens European security as a whole, and Germany is a large country in Europe and will feel a danger to Russia if it invades Ukraine, just as the regime in Germany is an ally of the United States of America, and if there is a need for a differentiation between Russia and America, America will choose in any possible conflict between Washington and Moscow .

self-reliance

For his part, political analyst Fawaz Tello believes - in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net - that there were two things that prompted Chancellor Schultz to use this language in the speech, the first of which is that Germany has reached the conviction that America - especially under the rule of the Democrats - cannot be relied upon to protect Europe, and "the matter The second is that Putin is today's "Hitler" and his aggression cannot be awaited without a radical change in German military policy."

Tello added that Schulz's speech refers to a strategic change that began in Germany that will transform it from a defense policy after World War II to raising its military capabilities and budget, whether by developing military and cyber weapons, with what this means is an increase in the size of its army and its external role, or that this is part of a more European policy. in depth.

International law expert Tariq Shandab believes that Germany's support with weapons for Ukraine is consistent with international law, which prevented the invasion of the country by force and stressed the right of countries under attack and invasion to defend themselves, in addition to that what he called "the invasion" is contrary to the principles of international law and was not carried out under the authorization of the Council Security, and this requires placing the “invading” state under Chapter VII.

Shandab added that Germany is a large country, and it should have the self-power that prevents any aggression that threatens European security, and the Germans have a hideous memory of the Russians' crimes in the invasion of Berlin, so they know people with the "criminal mentality of the Russian army," as Shandab says.