(East-West Question) Li Yonghui: What are the deep reasons for the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, March 1, Question: What are the deep reasons for the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine?

　　——Interview with Li Yonghui, deputy director and researcher of the Russian Diplomatic Research Office of the Institute of Russian, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

　　China News Agency reporter An Yingzhao

　　The situation in Ukraine is escalating day by day, which has aroused great concern from the international community.

　　How did Harvard professor Shahili Ploki describe Ukraine as the "gate to Europe" in his book?

When will the war end?

What is the historical latitude and longitude of the Ukraine issue?

　　China News Agency "East and West Questions" recently interviewed Li Yonghui, deputy director and researcher of the Russian Diplomatic Research Office of the Institute of Russian, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, who worked in the Chinese embassy in Ukraine and was a visiting scholar in universities in the United States and Russia. In-depth interpretation of this.

On February 25, local time, in Kharkiv, Ukraine, people hid in a subway station to avoid safety.

Photo by Ren Zeyu issued by China News Agency

The following is a summary of the interview transcript:

China News Service: Kissinger warned during the Ukraine crisis in 2014 that Ukraine should not choose between the West and the East, and should not become an "outpost" for one side against the other, but a "bridge" connecting the two sides.

From a historical perspective, what position does Ukraine occupy in the exchange and dialogue between the East and the West?

How did Ukrainian-Russian relations evolve from the Kievan Rus period to the Soviet period to today?

Li Yonghui:

The division between the eastern and western parts of Ukraine is the deep-seated reason for the intricate relationship between Russia and Ukraine.

There are clear differences in history, ethnicity, religion, culture and values ​​between eastern and western Ukraine.

　　Ukraine's existing territory is less than a hundred years old.

Historically Ukraine has been fragmented for a long time, and until the 17th century, it was an area under Polish jurisdiction.

The Cossacks in eastern Ukraine resisted the oppression and rule of Poland in the mid-17th century, and led their troops to seek protection from Tsarist Russia. The Udong area on the left bank of the Dnieper River was incorporated into Tsarist Russia.

Later, the Grand Duchy of Poland-Lithuania was divided up by Tsarist Russia, the Prussian Empire and the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Most of the western Ukraine on the right bank of the Dnieper was also assigned to Tsarist Russia and a small part to the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

　　In the First World War, Russia and Austria-Hungary collapsed, and before the October Revolution, Western Ukraine was placed under Poland.

In 1922, Ukraine, which signed the Union Treaty and joined the Soviet Union, actually reunited the Donbas region of what is now eastern Ukrainian, established the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, and joined the Soviet Union.

Western Ukraine joined the Soviet Union after World War II.

In 1954, Khrushchev, the Soviet leader, placed Crimea from Russia to Ukraine to commemorate the 300th anniversary of the merger of Russia and Ukraine.

　　The two ethnic groups in Ukraine have very different linguistic, cultural and religious traditions.

From the perspective of the integration time, the integration time of East Ukraine and Russia is as long as 300 years, and the integration time of West Ukraine is less than 200 years, and some places are only more than 70 years old.

Thus, Ukrainian East and West formed a dual cultural structure.

　　In addition, the economic and social development levels of the east and west of Ukraine are very different.

The industrial center of Ukraine is in the east, the industrial energy comes from Russia, and the economy is relatively developed.

The west is dominated by agriculture and tourism, which is closer to the European economy and hopes to integrate into Europe as soon as possible.

Therefore, the two voices of "de-Russification" in Ukraine to integrate into the West and merge into Russia have always coexisted.

On January 7, 2022, NATO held a special meeting of foreign ministers of member states to discuss the situation in the border area between Russia and Ukraine.

Photo courtesy of NATO issued by China News Agency

China News Service: Putin's recent speech once again emphasized that the five rounds of NATO's eastward expansion pose a serious threat to Russia's security.

What do you think of the threat of NATO's eastward expansion to Russia?

Li Yonghui:

After the Cold War ended, there were no leaders. In order to consolidate the achievements of the Cold War and establish a unipolar world, NATO continued to expand eastward.

For those Central and Eastern European countries that were once "satellite states" of the Soviet Union, joining NATO means joining the umbrella of protection. They do not want NATO to be dissolved like the Warsaw Pact, and even hope that the United States will directly send troops to their territories to protect them.

Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 and Ukraine becoming an independent nation-state, it has played a pro-Western role in the game between Russia and the United States and the West, and has been used by major powers to become a pawn in the game of great powers.

　　Since 1999, NATO has another round of large-scale expansion, including Hungary, Poland and other new members of the former Soviet bloc to join, although Russia is dissatisfied but helpless.

After all, its national strength was too weak to stop NATO's eastward expansion. As a result, NATO has expanded eastward for five rounds so far.

For Russia, maintaining the surrounding strategic safety belt is an inevitable choice, and it can also reflect the status of a great power.

If Ukraine joins NATO, Russia will directly "docking" with NATO's military deployment, which is a strategic situation that Russia cannot tolerate at all.

　　Seeing the trend of U.S. strategic contraction and shifting its strategic focus to the Indo-Pacific, as well as the U.S. desire for limited cooperation with Russia on the New START Treaty, Russia chose to negotiate with the U.S. the conditions for European security guarantees in 2021.

However, judging from the rapid fermentation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the United States and NATO have not made substantive responses to the security guarantees that Russia seeks.

On April 22, 2021, the Russian army held a large-scale cross-service exercise in the Crimea region.

Photo courtesy of the Russian Ministry of Defense issued by China News Agency

China News Service: Since the Ukraine crisis in 2014, the sanctions imposed by the United States and Western countries on Russia have affected Russia's economic and social development. Now they have used SWIFT financial sanctions to "nuclear weapons". To what extent will the impact on Russia be?

Li Yonghui:

The United States, the European Union, Canada, and the United Kingdom prohibit some Russian banks from using the SWIFT ("Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication") system, which is a certain upgrade compared to the previous sanctions against 5 Russian banks (excluding Gazprom Bank) , but has not completely kicked Russia out of the SWIFT system.

Economic experts say that Gazprom is responsible for the international payment and settlement of Russia's energy imports and exports. If the bank is kicked out, it can be considered that the United States and Europe intend to completely kick out Russia.

The current US and European sanctions do not include Gazprom, apparently to control oil prices.

If the Russian oil and gas trade is cut off, it will lead to a global shortage of supply, and the world energy price will rise, and Russia will benefit again.

At the same time, if Russia were to be kicked out, it would be a disaster for the US global financial system, and even more for the euro, so the US and Europe are very cautious.

As the West imposed severe sanctions in response to Russia's military action against Ukraine, the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline project, which was urgently halted by Germany before it was put into operation, has once again become the focus of attention of various countries.

The data picture shows the pipeline facilities of "North Stream No. 2" in Russia.

Photo courtesy of China News Agency Beixi No. 2 Company Photo by Nikolai Ryutin

China News Service: There are public opinions that this conflict between Russia and Ukraine heralds the arrival of a "new Cold War".

How do you see the impact of this conflict on the international situation?

What does this Russia-Ukraine negotiation mean for the development of the war?

Li Yonghui:

Russia hopes for a quick solution, but it is still in a stalemate.

With the escalation of the fighting, Russia pursues the purpose of "promoting talks by fighting", and sitting at the negotiating table is the main purpose of the Russian side.

As for the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the international situation, it depends on the final negotiation results of the two sides.

However, no matter what the future negotiation and outcome may be, the changes in the geopolitical pattern of the region and the world caused by this special military operation will not be able to change, and Russia may be further isolated and contained by the West.

　　In any case, NATO will likely further "arm" the Central and Eastern European countries, Russia and NATO will face off for a long time, and the security order in Europe will also be adjusted.

(over)

Interviewee Profile:

　　Li Yonghui, Doctor of Laws, Researcher of the Institute of Russian, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Deputy Director of the Russian Diplomatic Research Office, Professor of the School of International Relations, University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Distinguished Researcher of the Eurasian Development Institute of the Development Center of the State Council, Academic of the Eurasian Research Center of Sichuan University Committee member.

From 2002 to 2004, he was a visiting scholar at Lenin State Pedagogical University in Russia and George Washington University in the United States.

From 2008 to 2014, he worked in the Chinese embassy in Ukraine and the Chinese embassy in Azerbaijan.

Mainly engaged in the research on the relations between Russia, Eurasian countries, China, Russia, the United States and other major powers.

He has published one personal monograph, co-authored more than ten books, translated one book, and wrote more than 100 research reports and academic papers on related issues.

Won the title of Advanced Individual for Contribution to Women of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.