What major changes have occurred in U.S. foreign policy since the Biden administration took office?

How will it affect Sino-US relations?

China News Agency's "East-West Question, China Dialogue" invited Wang Huiyao, chairman of the Think Tank for Globalization (CCG), to have a dialogue with He Mulley, president of the Center for International Strategic Studies (CSIS).

　　Murray Ho was the U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense.

In his view, the two parties in the United States do not realize the real challenges that will be faced in the next 10 to 15 years, and the United States is likely to face a 20-year political restructuring period.

　　When it comes to Sino-US relations, he believes that the US should focus on improving its own strength and solving internal social problems.

China News Agency's "East-West Question, China Dialogue" invited Wang Huiyao, chairman of the Think Tank for Globalization (CCG), to have a dialogue with He Mulley, president of the Center for International Strategic Studies (CSIS).

Photo courtesy of CCG

The excerpts from the dialogue are as follows:

Wang Huiyao: US President Biden stated when the US troops withdrew from Afghanistan that the US no longer seeks "nationbuilding". What is your opinion on this?

How do you view U.S. foreign policy?

Murray Ho:

I think President Biden is reflecting the personal experience of the American people, that the US military has neither strategy nor success in going to Afghanistan.

We shouldn't get involved in these things without knowing what to do.

I think that's basically the meaning behind that statement.

But does it mean that the United States will withdraw from cooperation with other countries to build a stronger system?

No, I don't think so.

But I think it reflects the feeling of the majority of the American public that we use the military too often, unplanned and unsuccessfully.

　　The Biden administration has emphasized a focus on the economy, social development, and traditional diplomacy.

"America is going to shape the world" is over, and we won't continue to do it.

Data map: On September 1, 2021, local time, the Taliban held a "troop parade" to celebrate the withdrawal of the US military.

Wang Huiyao: Although Trump is no longer in office, Trumpism seems to be still prevailing; how do you assess the political development of the United States in the next few years?

Murray Ho:

The American political system has undergone two major changes. The first was from 1842 to 1860, which ended with the American Civil War.

The second time was between 1885 and 1915, when domestic tensions were high and the political system changed dramatically.

Both changes lasted nearly 20 years.

　　We may be facing the next 20 years of political restructuring.

I think the two parties in the United States fail to recognize the real challenges that will be faced in the next 10 to 15 years, and instead quarrel over the policies of the past, while ignoring the future.

I think the two parties will continue to be divided, and of course there will be work progress, but progress may be limited to the state level.

The issue of economic disparities in American society is also a challenge.

In my opinion, tensions within the United States may persist for 15 years.

Wang Huiyao: What do you think of the frequent "withdrawals" of the United States?

What can we do to promote Sino-US cooperation and peaceful coexistence?

Murray Ho:

I think President Trump's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was a serious mistake.

The best way to solve the problem is to find more opportunities for trade cooperation, but I don't know if a Biden administration will do that.

The world is going through a massive "reconstruction" that began long before the pandemic.

The trend we see in trade is regionalization rather than globalization.

In this "refactoring" process, I am concerned about the tension between China and the United States.

　　The current view of China in Washington is very negative.

I am unfortunate about this, because it will hinder us from implementing constructive policies and ideas.

China and the US have their own interests and frictions in some areas.

We cannot allow certain tensions to hinder constructive dialogue.

　　Washington is currently divided into two camps, and some believe that China is catching up, it will be dangerous, and it needs to be stopped as soon as possible.

Another camp thinks it's an unprecedented competition, but America is in poor shape, like runners with no training.

If we want to continue to compete, we need to get back to the status quo.

So instead of hindering China's running, we should strive to run faster.

　　I belong to the second camp.

I think the focus of the United States should be on improving itself, overcoming difficulties, and solving social problems, rather than opposing China's words and deeds everywhere.

This has no future.

So I'm in the camp that generally believes that if the United States wants to win the competition, it needs to be stronger internally.

Data map: Chinese flag and American flag.

Image source: People's Vision

Wang Huiyao: How should Chinese and American think tanks play the role of "Track II diplomacy"?

　　Murray Ho:

The two parties in the United States are quarreling over some small things, and there is no time to think about "big issues", so this is the task of think tanks.

　　I believe that in the next 10 years, "Track II diplomacy" will play a more important role than ever before.

It is difficult for government officials to meet each other now, and they sometimes attack each other.

But we can at least have honest conversations as professionals and friends, even if we disagree.

There will be friction between China and the US, but there must be a framework for communication. I think this is the development direction of "Track II diplomacy" in the next 10 to 15 years.