Will the war in Ukraine lead to a broader cyber conflict?

Not only did Russia launch its missiles at Kiev, but also towards the computer networks of Ukraine, which will lead to a wider electronic conflict.

The British newspaper, The Economist, reported, in a report, that on February 23, while Ukraine was still preparing for the expected war, the websites of the Verkhovna Rada and many government agencies stopped working, and on February 15 and 16 the same digital attack occurred. On Ukrainian government websites and banks, an attack that America, Britain and other governments quickly attributed to the GRU, and last month's defamation of several government ministries' websites with the message "Beware and expect the worst."

How bad is modern electronic warfare, and will other countries be affected?

“Ukraine has always been a cyber playground for Russia,” said Kiaran Martin, founding chief executive of the National Cyber ​​Security Center and the defense arm of the UK Government Communications Offices (GCHQ).

In 2016, suspected Russian malware disrupted the power grid in Ukraine, and cut off electricity to a fifth of Kiev in the middle of a cold winter, following the method of the American-Israeli “Stuxnet” attack, which disabled Iranian centrifuges to enrich uranium, as this attack targeted Protective systems that shut off electrical systems when abnormal conditions occur, and two years later Ukraine said it halted a suspected Russian attempt to disable the chlorine plant.

The newspaper explains that the recent attacks were not very sophisticated, as they took the form of a denial of service (ddos) attack, a method of igniting turbulence in traffic, in which the website is filled with bogus requests for information.

Its impact has been minimal, said Chris Krebs, the former head of the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA).

The newspaper considers that computer network operations - the term often used by professionals instead of "cyber attack" - has been a large part of wars, noting that America and Britain have spoken publicly about their cyber offensive operations in the campaign against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

With its forces crossing the border, Russia is likely to use the same tactics against Ukraine, to support its military offensive by disrupting Ukrainian air defenses and destabilizing the government in Kiev by spreading disinformation.

Russian malware cut off electricity to a fifth of the capital, Kiev, in the middle of winter 2016 (Al-Jazeera)

According to the newspaper, Western officials are concerned about the spread of any cyber conflict in Ukraine, whether accidental or deliberate. In 2017, the “NotPetya” cyber attack on Ukraine, which encrypted data on computers, caused damage amounting to 10 billion dollars. Around the world, blame was then placed on Russia, and this month the Canadian Immigration Agency (CISA) issued a warning to US organizations that Russia could escalate the conflict and affect others outside Ukraine.

The newspaper adds that both America and Britain have helped Ukraine strengthen its cyber defenses in recent months, and may help repel attacks on the country, pointing out that the line between defense and attack on computer networks is not always clear, and America's principle of "pushing forward." It confirms its readiness to defend Ukrainian networks by stopping attacks at the source - that is, within Russian networks - if necessary.

The paper notes that Western governments may also seek to disrupt Russian military networks, communications, or "cognitive" processes, such as altering data to confuse or mislead Russian forces.

Marcus Willett, former deputy head of the UK Government Communications Offices, says: “The Russians are off target, it's time for a cyber response, and there is a great temptation to get into cyber operations, because they feel stronger than sanctions but not at the level of a missile launch."

The Economist says that the concepts of deterrence, signals, and escalation in cyberspace are still in the process of development, especially that the Western infrastructure is more weak, since many of them depend on computer networks, warning that if a confrontation begins with Russian networks, the Russians may be in Good position to do similar things on allied networks.

According to prominent American figures - as reported by The Economist - there is a danger in miscalculating the risks, as Mark Warner, a Democrat who heads the Senate Intelligence Committee, warns that the criteria for deterrence and cyber escalation are not well understood, which paints a scenario that causes a Russian cyber attack. intentional or unintentional harm to civilians in Europe, prompting NATO to retaliate.

In practice, these risks may be manageable, as Russia's goal is to keep NATO away from the war in Ukraine, rather than drag it into it, the newspaper quotes Kiaran Martin, assuring it. They may view it as an escalation through other means."

He concludes by saying that "Moscow will not launch a sabotage cyber attack against the West unless it is truly ready to escalate into the danger zone."

The newspaper believes that escalation cannot be confirmed, simply by using cyber force, citing what Jacqueline Schneider, a fellow at the “Hoover Institute” at Stanford University, said about the multinational exercises conducted between 2017 and 2020, when she saw that participants were more likely to use operations. She added, "We will see a lot of electronic operations in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but they will not be the main factor that drives violence or leads to escalation with other countries in the region."

The newspaper notes that America and its allies routinely criticize Russia, China, Iran and North Korea for their irresponsible behavior in cyberspace, indicating that they would be wary of resorting to similar means, such as sabotage attacks on civilian infrastructure.