The Ukrainian crisis has entered a new and important turning point with Moscow's announcement of a military operation in Ukraine.

With the entry into force of the military option, the negotiating options between the West and Moscow have become more complex, and their chances may decline significantly.

The expected results of the Russian intervention bear multiple scenarios related to the objectives, form and extent of the Russian military operation.

At the same time, the debate in strategic and intelligence circles is focused today on whether the war in Ukraine will be the beginning of the emergence of a new international order?

Is what is happening on the international scene sufficient to reach this conclusion?

Or will what is happening, in the end, lead to the strengthening of the position of the United States, and allow it to expand and exclusivity?

A change in the international order, or the beginning of a new international order, usually means the end of American hegemony and exclusivity in world leadership.

With every strategic development or global event with a transgressive impact, the same discussion revolves around the mechanism of the current international system, and the ability of the United States to manage international affairs according to its vision.


Meaningful question

The mere repetition of this question has a clear indication of the growth of many phenomena that support the view that the United States is no longer able to exercise the same international roles that it has played since the early nineties of the last century.

Or at the very least, it needs a change in its comprehensive strategy to deal with new types of threats and shifts in the international scene usually related to the emergence of new international powers, and talking here about China and “Putin” Russia mainly, and also related to a change in the concepts of strategic power, increasing the influence of Economic factors, communications, and precision technologies at the expense of conventional military power, in addition to internal challenges that threaten the United States and the unity of American society.

What is meant by the emergence of a new international order necessarily means how the rising international power will deal with the comprehensive American retreat or repositioning to enhance its international standing and interests and participate in managing the international scene more broadly.

The current international system also faces many intrinsic challenges related to its internal structure, or those manifestations arising as a result of it.

During the last decade, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) witnessed many internal disputes, manifested during the period of former US President Donald Trump, and reappeared again, amid divergence in attitudes towards dealing with Russia, and even NATO countries' vision of China and the nature of partnership with it. .

If the European Union is one of the pillars of the current international system, it faces many challenges that affect the union's unity and its future.

His loss to the United Kingdom clearly indicates that.

In general, the current liberal international system is ill-equipped to deal with pressing global problems such as climate change, financial crises, pandemics, digital misinformation, and refugee flows, many of which are arguably a direct result of an open system that promotes the unrestricted flow of money, goods, information and people. across the border.


An important international shift

Here, the war in Ukraine is seen as one of the most important manifestations of the ongoing international transformations, in the midst of a multifaceted struggle for the establishment of a new international order, or the ability of the West to re-impose its hegemony again, especially in the consequences of the war in a scene in which Russia seemed able to challenge the West and confront NATO's strategy in Eastern Europe, and even imposed it by military force in a scene that Europe has not been accustomed to for decades.

Russia is seeking to strengthen its position in light of an American strategic repositioning and American military withdrawals from the "battlefields" it fought at the beginning of the new millennium.

In this endeavour, Russia focuses on enhancing its importance to China in particular, which has become the center of strategic interest for the United States and its Western allies.

China needs to fortify its international position and strengthen its alliances.

Given what the situation in Ukraine will lead to, how Moscow will act, the West’s reaction and the impact of its economic sanctions on Russia, all of this will affect the Chinese position towards Russia, and the extent to which the two parties can go to coordinate, and perhaps ally against the West, and invest the present moment in a situation Foundations of a new international order in which they have a greater contribution to the management of the international scene.


Boost indicators

Just as the recent crisis in Kazakhstan had an impact on Russia’s consolidation of its influence in the Central Asian region - which is a vital corridor of China’s “Belt and Road” project - which means Russia’s increasing importance to China, the war in Ukraine may lead to a similar result in deepening the Chinese conviction of the feasibility of making steps forward. In relations with Russia.

This indicates - at the same time - the centrality of China in the Russian moves against the West.

The recent Russian-Chinese summit and the joint statement of the two powers gave indications of improving cooperation opportunities between the two sides, but this does not change much of the reality of the complex relationship between the two sides, which includes many obstacles and common fears, in addition to a large gap in the ingredients.

However, the Western challenge - and the US in particular - constitutes a sufficient reason for the possibility of a growing alliance between the two powers resulting in a broader alliance, which necessarily means that we are facing a new international order.


Quick discount is essential

In order for the war in Ukraine to contribute to the process of forming a new international order, it requires Moscow to expedite the end of its military operation and prevent its development into a long war of attrition.

The result of all this crisis must also be the achievement of the main goals that Russia sought to achieve;

It is primarily about reaching an agreement with the West on joint security guarantees in Europe, preventing the expansion of NATO on Russia's western and southern borders, and strengthening Russia's position as an international player capable of imposing its choices.

These direct results of the end of the crisis need to be based on a common conviction among several international parties opposed to Western and American influence to form a solid bloc that has goals and a common strategic vision for major international issues, and has the ingredients that allow it to play roles at all levels.

But in the event that Putin was not able to achieve the goals of the war quickly, and the situation moved from imposing his vision by force to entering into a long war, and the image of a bloody Russian occupation in Ukraine was strengthened, the chance for this crisis to have a role in progressing towards a new international order, in which the United States would not be singular in world leadership, is regressing and may be counterproductive in this respect.

Russia's entry into a long war of attrition will contribute to removing it from the arena of international influence, allowing the United States and the West to focus on China, their main strategic adversary;

As the political, military and propaganda attrition of Russia will necessarily mean that the West will bypass the Russian dilemma, and will pave the way for strengthening the American strategy to confront China and tightening alliances around it, especially in the Pacific and Indian Oceans and the South China Sea.