Washington Post article: If Putin wins in Ukraine, wide geopolitical changes in Europe and Asia and the end of the current world order

in the American newspaper "

" expected

that Russia's defeat of Ukraine would cause wide geopolitical changes in Europe and in the goals of NATO and the existing world order and the beginning of an era in which China would control Taiwan and Southeast Asia and create 3 blocs in the world (American, Russian, China) and global chaos and conflict;

Every region of the world is adjusting precariously to the new composition of the force.

The author of the article, Robert Kagan, explained that when the Russians complete their operation, they will be able to deploy ground, air and missile forces to bases in western Ukraine as well as in Belarus, which has effectively become a proxy for Russia.

Russian forces would thus be grouped along Poland's 650-mile eastern border, as well as along the eastern borders of Slovakia and Hungary and the northern borders of Romania, potentially bringing Moldova under Russian control as well.

The most immediate threat will be to the Baltic states, as Russia already lies directly on the borders of Estonia and Latvia and touches Lithuania through Belarus and through its outpost in the Kaliningrad region.

Disengagement of the Baltic states from the West

The writer pointed out that Russia's new strategy is to disengage the Baltic states from NATO by proving that the alliance can no longer hope to provide protection for those countries.

He added that with Poland, Hungary and 5 other NATO members sharing a border with the new, enlarged Russia, the ability of the United States and NATO to defend the alliance's eastern flank would be seriously diminished.

Continuing his predictions, Kagan said that the new situation could force a significant change in the meaning and purpose of NATO.

President Putin wants to re-establish Russia's traditional sphere of influence in Eastern and Central Europe, and is currently seeking, at least, to form a two-tiered NATO, in which coalition forces are not deployed on the former Warsaw Pact territory;

That is, all eastern European countries that border Russia, and also seeks to create a new European security "structure" with the presence of Russian forces along the eastern borders of NATO.

Different strategic animal

Kagan summed up Russia's control of Ukraine with what former US Secretary of State Dean Acheson said, "Russia and Ukraine are a completely different strategic animal."

The writer also expects that Russia's victory over Ukraine and the failure of the United States and the West in general to confront Russia militarily, will encourage China to invade and control Taiwan to dominate in East Asia and the Western Pacific.

He said it was time to start imagining a world in which Russia effectively controls much of Eastern Europe, and China controls much of East Asia and the Western Pacific.

Americans and their democratic allies in Europe and Asia will have to decide, once again, whether this world is acceptable.

Kagan concluded his article that the map of Europe has undergone many changes over the centuries.

Its shape before the Russian invasion of Ukraine reflects the expansion of American power and the collapse of Russian power from the 1980s until now, but the post-invasion phase is likely to reflect the revival of Russian military power and the decline of America's influence.

If these changes are combined with gains for China in East Asia and the Western Pacific, they will herald the end of the current world order and "the beginning of an era of global chaos and conflict, as every region of the world adjusts precariously to the new configuration of power."