The expert: This is how the war will affect Sweden

Economy

Swedish households can count on price increases for electricity and fuel after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

But the war also risks leading to a shortage of important goods, including grain, of which Ukraine is a major exporter.

- And Russia is a major exporter of certain minerals and nuclear fuel.

These are products that few countries export, so it can be a problem, says Hugo von Essen, analyst at the Center for Eastern European Studies.

The sanctions that the EU, among others, has begun to impose on Russia risk striking back at Sweden and other EU countries, Hugo von Essen states.

- The fact that we limit Russia economically will also affect us in view of the trade relations that Russia has with Sweden and other European countries.

And if there are even stronger sanctions from the West against Russia, there will probably be even stronger counter-sanctions from Russia against the West.

The CEO of the organization Confederation of Swedish Enterprise is very concerned about the consequences of the war.

- It is clear that it will have a major impact on the companies that operate in and trade with Russia and Ukraine.

In the short term, it's about getting staff to security, then you have to secure supply chains and IT.

The Swedish business community and consumers will be affected, mainly indirectly.

But those consequences are difficult to foresee, he says in a statement.

Minister of Trade Anna Hallberg (S) says that the war and the sanctions that will be introduced will have a limited impact on the Swedish economy.  

- Russia is not our largest trading partner.

But we have major interests in Russia, about 500 Swedish companies are active in Russia and about 90 Swedish companies are in Ukraine, says Anna Hallberg to SVT.

Refugee flows

According to Hugo von Essen, Sweden can count on refugee flows, even though he believes that other countries will receive more Ukrainians on the run, such as Poland.

- But it is not inconceivable that Sweden will have to take care of a large number of people.

Ukraine is a large country and we can see a very large flow of people moving from Ukraine to other parts of Europe.

- We have already started to see refugees from Ukraine to other countries in Europe and it has been possible to see how large motorways have been completely blocked by cars with people trying to escape.

Insecurity and cyber attacks

In parallel with the military invasion, Hugo von Essen fears that Russia will advance its positions through other types of aggression.

Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson (S) has called on all Swedes to be very vigilant for attempts at misinformation.

Krisinformation.se also calls for being source-critical and not spreading unconfirmed rumors. 

- Russia exercises aggression in more ways than military, for example through cyber attacks and disinformation.

A less secure Europe will surely mean that Russia increases such aggressions against all European countries.

It will be felt in Sweden, says Hugo von Essen. 

- You do not have to worry about there being a war in Sweden tomorrow, but Europe will be less safe and less safe.

All countries in Europe will probably need to invest more resources in building their defenses against Russian aggression, he says.