After the announcement of a "military operation" in Ukraine by Russian President Vladimir Putin, the price of a barrel exceeded 100 dollars on Thursday for the first time in more than seven years.

Consequence: Saudi Arabia, rich in oil, and the emirate of Qatar, with large gas reserves, are at the heart of the attention of the European Union (EU) whose gas market depends 40% on Russian supplies and is therefore very vulnerable to tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

And some 2.3 million barrels of Russian crude oil leave for Europe every day.

Close to the United States and the EU, which are engaged in a diplomatic standoff with Russia, Riyadh and Doha "are faced with strong demand for their exports" of hydrocarbons, confirms to AFP Karen Young, director of the economics and energy program at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.

However, increasing oil production and transporting new quantities of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is "not so simple".

In both countries, investments are not going 'fast enough', so neither is 'prepared' to become 'a superhero in the event of a collapse of Russian oil and gas to the south'. 'Europe", explains the researcher.

“Negotiations are underway” to redirect gas deliveries planned for Asian markets to Europe if necessary, a Qatari official told AFP during a meeting with US President Joe Biden in late January.

Some major oil importers have also called on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) to produce more – and faster – black gold, putting pressure on Saudi Arabia in particular.

Between Moscow and Washington

But, like their Gulf neighbours, Riyadh and Doha are exercising caution.

Qatar has thus indicated that it has little additional LNG production capacity and that the quantity of gas that can be diverted from existing contracts is limited.

At a summit of gas exporters in Doha earlier this week, major producers, including Russia, said they could not guarantee prices or supplies.

As for Saudi Arabia, it has shown no sign of interest in increasing its oil production despite being a key player in OPEC+, alongside Russia.

"OPEC + has so far indicated its intention to respect the agreement," assured AFP Amena Bakr, of the analysis office Energy Intelligence, referring to the current production quotas of the member countries.

But "the spare capacity of the organization is rapidly eroding", she observes.

Close to both Washington and Moscow, Qatar and Saudi Arabia rely on the American military umbrella, while developing economic and political relations with Russia.

"Saudi Arabia is keen to keep Russia as a partner in OPEC+," Ben Cahill, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told AFP.

The current crisis also gives the oil and gas producing countries of the Gulf the opportunity to recall their strategic importance, at a time when criticism is rife concerning the impact of the hydrocarbon industry on the environment and the climate.

Qatar thus hopes to obtain long-term supply contracts (up to 25 years), which Europe has so far refused.

The Gulf countries being faced with their "decline" in a context of "energy transition", "this may be an opportunity for them to use their influence to assert their importance in the world economy", underlines Karen Young.

© 2022 AFP