Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed officially commissioned, on Sunday February 20, the electricity production of the "renaissance dam" on the Blue Nile, a pharaonic construction initiated in 2011 which aims to become the largest hydroelectric infrastructure. from Africa.     

For the head of the Ethiopian government, the outcome of this project is akin to a double victory: vis-à-vis his Egyptian and Sudanese neighbors, first of all, opposed to the start-up of the dam, but also vis-à-vis -à-vis the Tigrayan rebels, against whom he has been waging a fierce war since November 2020.   

While Abiy Ahmed sent his "congratulations to all Ethiopians", hailing "the birth of a new era", the spokesperson for the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) denounced the political recovery of a project initiated by the Tigrayans when they were in power.  

pic.twitter.com/KcGTCmwD5m

— Abiy Ahmed Ali 🇪🇹 (@AbiyAhmedAli) February 20, 2022

 France 24 takes stock of the economic and political stakes of the Renaissance dam with Marc Lavergne, CNRS research director specializing in the Horn of Africa.   

Two neighbors of Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan have been trying for years to block this dam project.

In this fight, is the launch of electricity production a step forward for Ethiopia or a definitive victory

?  

Marc Lavergne:

 In my opinion, this is a real victory for Ethiopia because the activation of the dam will demonstrate once and for all that the Egyptian argument does not hold.

The latter claim that the project risks causing problems with the water supply.

However, Egypt is not at all in a situation of potential shortage.

There are indeed supply problems, but these are above all linked to faulty infrastructure and poor optimization, because water is free in Egypt and does not go through an operator.  

In this conflict, the leader al-Sissi seeks above all to protect his position as a regional ally of the United States, essential for his political survival.

The growing influence of Ethiopia through this major economic project is perceived as a threat by Cairo.    

Sudan, a former Egyptian colony historically dependent on its neighbour, backed Cairo's initiative for political reasons but was actually quite embarrassed.

The government had even recognized that the dam could on the contrary be a protection against the floods which pose big problems in Sudan.

In this context, the game seems definitively lost for Egypt, which had once threatened to bomb the dam, but cannot afford such a response vis-à-vis its American and Israeli supporters.   

This dam, among the largest in the world, would have cost more than four billion dollars according to experts.

What economic benefits does Ethiopia hope to derive from it

?  

The country is in a very complicated economic situation.

It faces a crisis of impoverishment of cultivable land due to overexploitation of the soil, linked to the very strong demographic growth with a population which today reaches 115 million inhabitants.

Until now, the main foreign investments in the economy concerned the employment of labor in the textile industry which, even less expensive than in Bangladesh, is among the most profitable in the world.

Its foreign trade remains very poor and is mainly limited to the export of flowers and coffee and the import of petroleum products.     

In this context, the operation of the dam represents an enormous financial windfall on the scale of the continent, whose electricity supply is largely insufficient, but also on the scale of the world, with in particular China, the main economic partner of the 'Ethiopia.

It has agreed to pre-finance the dam and relies heavily on Ethiopian exports.     

The war between the central government and the Tigrayan rebels in the north has been going on for more than a year.

The Prime Minister recently ended the state of emergency, released prisoners and accepted the establishment of a national dialogue.

Can the dam, now functional, promote a resolution of the conflict?    

The Renaissance Dam was initiated by former Prime Minister and leader of the Tigray People's Liberation Front, Meles Zenawi.

The latter then presented this project as a major economic opportunity that would put an end, once and for all, to inter-ethnic conflicts in order to unify the country.

This nationalist approach had aroused a very strong enthusiasm of the population which was widely put to contribution.

The project was funded in part through taxes on the salaries of civil servants as well as collections which have been very successful.

Some Ethiopians have gone so far as to hand over their possessions and family jewels to participate.

Because Ethiopia may be a multi-ethnic nation committed to diversity, nationalist sentiment is extremely strong there.     

Today, the commissioning of the dam gives the impression that Abiy Ahmed has won against the Tigrayans since he managed to bring the project to fruition.

This major economic advance allows him to relegate the conflict with the TPLF to a regional crisis, but in reality it will not be enough to reunify the country.

The fulfillment of this old Ethiopian myth through economic progress seemed possible in 2011 when the TPLF was in power.

But to wage war against the Tigrayans, Abiy Ahmed, who did not really have an army, exploited ethnic divisions.

Today he has totally lost control of this conflict which cannot be settled by a simple declaration of victory or a ceasefire.

The question now is what will the dam be used for?

Because in addition to the risk of sabotage linked to the conflict, the proper use of this tool requires massive foreign investment which risks being called into question in a context of generalized war.

>> To read also: War in Ethiopia: "The United States no longer has confidence in Abiy Ahmed"

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