Containing Beijing is one of America's priorities now
China will not benefit much from a possible war in Ukraine
Beijing shares common interests with Moscow.
archival
Beijing regards Taiwan as an internal matter.
archival
picture
Sino-Russian relations are the strongest in 70 years.
And when President Xi Jinping welcomes his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, whom he calls his "best friend," to a planned summit before the Winter Olympics open in the Chinese capital on February 4, strong interests will bind the two men.
China has capital to invest, technology to sell, and a growing appetite for oil, gas, and other commodities.
Despite its difficulties, the Russian economy complements the Chinese economy, providing natural resources that can be supplied via pipelines and railways that, in contrast to maritime supply routes, are immune to blockades by foreign navies.
A sense of history unites leaders.
Both see the world order being reshaped by American fatigue, creating opportunities to test and divide the democratic West.
Chinese and Russian diplomats and propagandists are relaying and amplifying parallel narratives about the benefits of the American-style iron fist system.
The joint military exercises indicate a growing confidence.
In a recent speech in Australia aimed at mobilizing "freedom-loving democracies", British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss described China and Russia as allied and "bolder in a way not seen since the Cold War."
Commentators in Washington note that China and Russia see a common interest in an armed Russian adventure in Ukraine that will test President Joe Biden's resolve.
Some go even further, arguing that Ping would regard Russia's unchallenged attack on Ukraine as being able to safely invade Taiwan, a self-governing 23 million people that China claims.
In this narrative, China's concerns about Ukraine are mostly about timing.
And a US news service claimed that the Chinese president asked Putin not to attack during the Olympics, citing unnamed diplomats.
The Chinese Embassy in Moscow described the report as a "hoax and a provocation."
Because these questions are important, The Economist sought the opinions of specialized experts.
They find it foolish to imagine that Communist Party leaders would endorse the attacks on Ukraine, let alone an empirical simulation of the invasion of Taiwan.
It is true that Chinese scholars usually grumble when foreigners suspect that China is nothing but a peace-loving giant.
These academics, too, are obligated to reject comparisons between a foreign invasion and an attack on Taiwan, whose fate China regards as an internal matter.
Even more persuasive, Chinese experts took offense at the idea that the conflict in Ukraine would set a precedent for something as dangerous as the war on Taiwan.
They make no secret of their belief that Russia simply does not matter as much to America as China does.
In fact, they acknowledge that China repays the favor, and considers confrontation with America more than friendship with Russia.
Relations between China and Russia may be closer than they have been since the days of Mao and Stalin, when the Soviet Union was China's "big brother" and was an arrogant but indispensable patron.
China was cautious after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2014. In line with its adherence to its territorial integrity, China abstained from voting when the United Nations Security Council considered the Ukraine crisis in 2014. Chinese officials blamed the intervention of hostile Western forces instead of Russia.
But China never recognized Russia's annexation of Crimea, and has since worked to build trade with Ukraine.
China criticized US and European sanctions imposed on Russian officials, banks and companies, after 2014. But big Chinese banks and companies did not try to break them, putting access to Western markets and financial systems first.
China has helped Russia reduce its vulnerabilities to sanctions, making it easier to use the Chinese yuan, rather than dollars, for some payments.
But such initiatives have always been constrained by Chinese capital controls.
In 2014, the Russian elite had "very naive expectations" about the help that China would provide, says Alexander Gabiv, an expert on China at the Carnegie Moscow Center.
Now the two countries are more realistic about each other, he says, and relations are stronger.
Yang Cheng, an expert on Russia at Shanghai International Studies University, notes that a major conflict in Ukraine would bring little benefit to Putin.
But he also argues that America has few good options.
For example, sanctions that hurt Russia's energy exports risk fueling inflation that is hurting America, he says.
As for Russia's demands for comprehensive security guarantees as a price for peace, Biden can either accept them and assert America's waning influence, or reject them and risk turmoil in Ukraine.
However, Yang sees no specific benefit to China in such a clash, because he is sure that America's foreign priority will remain the "grand strategy of containing China".
He is not alone in his analysis.
From China's perspective, the conflict in Ukraine is a risky sideshow, not a window into any future global order.
• An expert on Russia at Shanghai International Studies University, Yang Cheng, points out that a major conflict in Ukraine will bring little benefit to Putin.
• When President Xi Jinping welcomes his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, whom he calls his “best friend,” to a planned summit before the opening of the Olympics, strong interests will bind the two men.
Follow our latest local and sports news and the latest political and economic developments via Google news