Ukraine.
I've heard of the name a lot, but if I ask you to open a world map and pinpoint where it is, how many out of ten Koreans will be able to pinpoint it correctly?
What is happening in such an unfamiliar country is shaking the world.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has significant implications for the other side of the Eurasian continent, where China, Taiwan, and South Korea are located.
This is because it is an event where a powerful country pursuing regional hegemony challenges the international order centered on the West, led by the United States, and makes a rupture sound.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Wang Won-bin raised his voice on the 17th, saying, "(The United States) should attach great importance to Russia's legitimate and reasonable security concerns and resolve them."
On February 6th, 'Association of European Journalists' published a caricature of Russia and China targeting Ukraine and Taiwan, respectively.
Ukraine was a major member of the former Soviet Union and is a large country located in the southwest of Russia.
It has a complex history with Russia, and if you go back, they share an ancestor called 'Kiev Rus'.
Its land area is six times the size of South Korea, and it is the second largest in continental Europe after Russia.
The fertile soil makes it one of the world's largest grain producers.
Ukraine was one of the military bases of the former Soviet Union and one of the major nuclear weapons deployment areas.
It is a road that transports Russian natural gas (LNG) to western countries such as Germany.
The longest part of Russia's western border (1,974 km) is the border with Ukraine.
Russia is on the way south through the Black Sea to the Mediterranean world.
Ukraine is such a country.
The key to this situation is whether this country will fall into the US side of the Western alliance (NATO, NATO) or fall under the shadow of Russia.
Will Putin give orders to advance on the more than 150,000 troops deployed to the Ukrainian border?
Putin was a senior official in the East German branch of the Soviet KGB when East Germany collapsed in 1990.
They must have pledged to pay for this insult someday as they shared the process of the tearing down of the Berlin Wall and the helpless withdrawal of Soviet troops.
His lifelong goal is to recreate the glory of the Great Soviet Empire.
(It is similar to the fact that Chinese President Xi Jinping has pursued a policy of strengthening power and hardening foreign affairs, making it a lifelong task to rebuild China's cinema.) Putin's historical perception that Ukraine is fundamentally part of a 'Great Russia' It was revealed last year in articles and remarks.
Since the mid-2000s, Russia has already occupied several places in Ukraine, including Crimea and Eastern Donbas, by force.
NATO, the security alliance of the Western countries, has always declared decisive punishment, but has never actually stopped Russia by force.
Such NATO has been criticized or satirized by the world's media using the adjective 'toothless'.
Putin has been restoring Russia's prestige step by step, as if he were saying, 'Isn't there a guy who's afraid to leave and see?'
Russia has deployed more than 150,000 troops to the north, south and east of Ukraine this time.
It is known that the size of the U.S. troops dispatched is around 8,500.
The US did not send US troops to Ukraine to avoid direct confrontation with Russian forces.
Only 4,700 troops are stationed in Poland and other Eastern European countries.
US President Biden has made it clear that he does not intend to send troops directly to Ukraine (even to evacuate American citizens in an emergency, as he did in Afghanistan).
If the US and Russia fire at each other, there will be a world war.
NATO, a military alliance between the United States and European countries, is again shouting 'Stop!' like a school bully guard.
Although there is no intention of sending troops to directly engage the Russian army, they are using various measures to deter the Russian use of force by resolutely and unitedly to a level not seen in recent years.
Even a toothless lion has claws.
Will NATO be able to stop Putin this time?
This question has no small meaning for Korea, which is facing the diplomatic and security dilemma of China on the other side of the Eurasian continent.
So, let's find out what kind of alliance NATO is, how it has expanded, and how Russia has accepted it and caused this to happen.
(* The text and graphics of this article were written on the afternoon of the 18th (Friday). The situation in Ukraine is changing so rapidly that the time of writing is disclosed.)
[What is it?] Formation and expansion of NATO
NATO was created by the North Atlantic Treaty signed on April 4, 1949.
Therefore, the official name is 'The North Atlantic Treaty Organization'.
It is a collective military alliance system in which member states automatically defend each other when attacked by non-member countries.
It was formed in 1945 by the United States and Western European countries, feeling threatened by the rapid communization of the Eastern Bloc by the Soviet Union after the end of World War II.
Article 5 of the NATO Charter is the provision that best reflects NATO's character.
"An armed attack against a country in Europe or North America shall be regarded as an attack on all member states. In the event of such an attack, each member shall collectively or independently attack by exercising its independent or collective defense power recognized in Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations. Mutual aid to the receiving country."
- Article 5 of the NATO Charter
It was the first instance of this collective security clause being invoked when the United States invaded Afghanistan after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
The Soviet Union had to contain such NATO.
He was told to go to the tiger's den to catch tigers, and in 1953 he announced his intention to join NATO.
Not long after Stalin died.
The iron-blooded foreign minister Molotov, who along with Stalin defeated Hitler, announced his intention to join NATO.
NATO member states rejected the Soviet proposal in 1954, saying it did not fit the nature of the alliance.
In 2000, Putin, who became Russia's most powerful person after Yeltsin, discussed the possibility of joining NATO as acting president.
The premise was that if NATO could switch from a military alliance to a political alliance and Russia could participate on an equal footing with the United States, there was no progress whatsoever.
NATO started in Western Europe and gradually expanded eastward toward the Soviet Union (Russia).
If the trend is broken down by year, the map is as follows.
The darker the blue color, the earlier the country joined, and the brighter the blue color, the more recently it joined.
displayed as animated graphics.
East Germany was transferred to NATO in 1990.
In 1999, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary joined NATO.
In March 2004, the three Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania on the northern European side), Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia became NATO members.
Since 2009, additional Eastern European countries such as Albania, Croatia and North Macedonia have joined NATO.
It could be seen as an eastern expansion of the free world, but from Putin's point of view, it might have felt like a flood was filling up right in front of us.
(Switzerland, Austria and Sweden are neutral. Finland did not join in order not to provoke Russia.)
What if Ukraine becomes a NATO member?
Now, why is Russia, which did not use force when so many Eastern European countries joined NATO, strongly opposes Ukraine, willing to go to war?
First, let's recall the introduction we gave at the beginning of this article about Ukraine.
- Huge granary
- Military industrial bases of the former Soviet Union, nuclear weapons deployment area
- The road to export LNG to Europe
- The road going south to the Mediterranean Sea
- It has a land border of nearly 2,000 km.
Just to point out a few things, the weight is different from other small countries in the Eastern Bloc.
In addition, if you look at the map, from Ukraine to Moscow, it is a huge plain where the cavalry can roam freely.
The basic premise of Russia's security strategy is that this huge plain should not fall into the sphere of influence of Western powers such as Britain, Germany, and France, and that it should remain as a buffer zone to protect the heartland of Moscow and others.
From the Russian standpoint, therefore, they have been expressing dissatisfaction and warning about NATO's eastward advance (expansion to the east) from a long time ago.
Has the US broken its promise not to expand NATO eastward? ...argument
Moreover, the West has promised 'there will be no eastern expansion of NATO', but Russia claims that it has betrayed it.
Here's the story:
In the early 1990s, the collapse of East Germany and the unification of East and West Germany were an unavoidable reality, but there were still 380,000 Soviet troops stationed in East Germany.
To prevent bloodshed, the US first had to reassure the Soviet Union and persuade the Soviet Union to quietly withdraw its forces.
So the then-US Secretary of State Baker made this promise verbally to Mikhail Gorbachev, General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union.
However, George HW Bush, then President of the United States, had a different idea.
The collapse of the communist bloc was a world-historical phenomenon at the time, but I thought it was absurd that NATO was stuck only in West Germany.
The void left by the Soviet army was naturally filled by NATO forces.
At that time, the situation in the Soviet Union itself was deteriorating, and the Soviet Union was not in the mood to protest.
As a result, the promise of 'no NATO movement' was not recorded in the treaty documents dealing with German reunification and the international order thereafter.
So the US said, 'Isn't it possible to say anything at the beginning of the negotiations?
It doesn't make sense to come here and talk about betrayal.
Also, the Baker-Gorbachev dialogue was limited to East Germany, and there was no dialogue with other countries such as Ukraine.
Russia counters that 'the United States and the West broke the promise'.
In response, the West is accusing Russia of breaking its promises.
Russia signed the Budapest Agreement with the United States, Britain and Ukraine in 1994.
It said that the former Soviet Union's nuclear weapons deployed in Ukraine would be taken over and dismantled, the United States and Britain would provide economic support, and Russia would respect Ukraine's borders and security.
Russia broke its promise by seizing Crimea by force in 2004 and inciting pro-Russian militias in eastern Ukraine to create conflict.
[Putin's intentions?] 'NATO, get out of Russia's front yard'
What Russia, which caused this incident, is demanding from Ukraine and NATO (resolving security concerns) can be summarized as follows.
1. Ukraine to renounce NATO membership and commit to it in
writing
From Russia's point of view, it wants to secure a huge buffer zone with the West, but it's usually not a problem.
first one.
Ukraine is a country that has clearly stated its intention to join NATO through its constitutional amendment in 2019.
To promise in writing to renounce NATO membership, we would have to amend the constitution again. Is it possible?
Number two calls for the defeat of NATO's military power to the west in virtually all Eastern European countries.
This is because the countries that have been NATO members since 1997 are almost all countries east of a united Germany: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Romania, Bulgaria (from near northern Europe to the south).
This is what happens when you mark it on a map.
Will the US be able to accept the call to withdraw from these countries?
Before that, will the countries in question be able to accommodate these sovereignty-infringing claims?
For more than 20 years, Putin has been desperately trying to restore military power before revealing his true intentions, while waiting for all things to work out.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russian army, which had collapsed inside with only a shell, went through various battles such as the invasion of Georgia and the Syrian civil war, repairing everything from equipment to organization, and reviving it as a strong military force.
NATO countries in Europe have a natural gas pipe noose around their necks.
In the United States, he estranged between the United States and Europe by plotting to have a monster president named Trump appear.
Waiting for China to build up sufficient strength and confront the United States has strengthened its solidarity.
President Biden's political position was weakened by a series of failures, including a shameful withdrawal from Afghanistan.
It seems that Putin finally saw that everything was in place.
Ukraine's Tragedy: The Intrinsic Conflict, The Pro-Russian-Anti-Russian Fight Continues
What was the relationship between Ukraine and Russia like in the past?
In the early days of Stalin's push for communism, thousands of people lost their lives in the rural areas of Ukraine swept away by 'agricultural reform'.
During his first five-year economic plan between 1928 and 1932, Stalin deported or executed more than 100,000 people to Siberia and Central Asia for fear that the peasants of Ukraine, a fertile granary, would protest against the nationalization of land and the ban on private property.
(After Timothy Snyder's Bloody Lands - Europe Between Hitler and Stalin (The Writing Jar),
after decades of living as a member of the Commonwealth of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR - the official name of the USSR), Ukraine became quite close to Russia. After coming to power in the Soviet Union, Khrushchev separated Crimea from Russia and gave it to Ukraine. After independence from the Soviet Union, internal struggles between pro-Russian and anti-Russian forces continued. It is known that the pro-Western forces are stronger as the country progresses: the Orange Revolution of 2004 - the economic crisis of 2013 - the Euromaidan protests in 2014 - Russia's annexation of Crimea, the outbreak of the Donbass civil war, etc. 1) Pro-Russian forces within Russia and Ukraine 2 ) surrounding the struggle of powers against Russia to make Ukraine a member of the Western world.
In particular, 2014 is recorded as a year of many incidents.
At the 'Euro Maidan' protests against the Russian-controlled dictator Yanukovych, Yanukovych issues an order to fire.
As public resistance grew stronger, Yanukovych fled to Russia after being impeached.
The march in the photo above is right after that.
Russia has launched a counterattack as soon as the Sochi Winter Olympics are over.
They took the Crimea by force and encouraged militia in the eastern Donbas region, where there are many Russian residents, to resist the pro-Western Ukrainian government.
The Russian residents of the Donbas region declared independence as the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk (also known as Lugansk) People's Republic.
(It has not received international recognition.)
The Russian House of Representatives recently passed a resolution asking Putin to approve the two "autonomous republics" of the Donbas region on the 15th.
(Putin is known to have done it behind the scenes.) Russia has not 'officially approved' these two republics, although they have encouraged them to wage an armed struggle against the central government of Ukraine.
This is because it is a violation of the 'Minsk Agreement' that was signed for a ceasefire in the Donbass civil war.
Currently, the German and French leaders are strongly demanding that Putin 'not approve', but it is unclear whether Putin will listen.
A nation's national identity is inevitably strengthened by fighting external enemies.
Ukraine seems to be going through the same process.
Even Ukrainians, who have never had much dissatisfaction with Russia, may feel resentment at Russia's tyranny since 2014.
In Ukraine, legislation has been enacted to remove the status of Russian as a second official language since 2014.
Anti-Russian identity is being strengthened.
Independence of the 'spirit' is also being promoted.
Religiously, Ukraine was originally a state under the Russian Orthodox Church.
In 2019, the Ukrainian Church became independent as the "Ukraine Orthodox Church" and broke with the Russian Orthodox Church.
In European history, the segregation of churches has been more than religion.
The process of separation from Roman Catholicism and the emergence of the Protestant Church and the separation of the Anglican Church from Catholicism was closely related to the strengthening of the sovereignty of each country, and numerous wars and slaughter followed.
For Moscow, the Ukrainian church's declaration of independence may be more of a concern than Ukraine's purchase of weapons from the West.
Despite this, there are still many Russian-speaking people in Ukraine, and a large number of Russian-backed forces remain in the political, economic and cultural circles.
Even if they don't like Russia, there are a lot of people who believe that it is impossible to protect the country's well-being by pretending to be Russia.
So, in 2019, pro-Western forces led the way to 'promote NATO membership' in the constitution, but it is known that public opinion on NATO membership was divided.
[A clue to the solution?] Will the Ukrainian government insist on joining NATO?
If so, will the current Ukrainian government join the Western military alliance even at the risk of a Russian invasion?
Ukraine's ambassador to the UK and former foreign minister Vadim Pristaiko spoke on BBC radio in an interview suggesting a possible abandonment of NATO membership.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also made remarks about giving up NATO membership at a press conference after meeting with German Chancellor Scholz on the same day.
Then there were reports that Russia had withdrawn some of its troops.
Turns out it wasn't, but Russia said "Now there's something to talk about!"
It was read as sending a signal of response.
However, this atmosphere did not last.
Ambassador Pristaiko and President Zelensky withdrew their remarks within a day or two, saying that “the context was distorted.”
It is not known whether it was conscious of domestic anti-Russian public opinion, whether it was seen as an irreversible situation, or whether there were other calculations.
Russia is also strengthening its road invasion posture.
For Ukraine to become a NATO member, all 30 member states must vote for it.
According to Article 5 of the NATO Charter, if Ukraine is invaded, they are obligated to fight together.
So, some predict that it will be difficult to join NATO even if Ukraine desperately wants it.
President Zelensky's dismayed grumbling suggests this.
NATO is an organization created to prevent aggression by countries like Russia, but it is ironic that the more likely a country is to be invaded by Russia, the more difficult it is to become a NATO member.
Until Russia reacted as violently as it is now, NATO has consistently maintained a policy of eastward expansion.
Ukrainian pro-Western forces were also pushing for membership, not because they didn't like NATO.
This means that major member states such as the US, France and Germany are not in a situation where they can force Ukraine to 'withdraw its intention to join'.
However, Ukraine itself may withdraw its intention to join - or take the form - to avoid a Russian invasion.
As the saying goes (不敢請 固所願, meaning "I do not dare to ask, but I wish in my heart"), the concerned countries may hope that Ukraine's voluntary withdrawal will provide a clue to resolve the situation.
[Immediate crisis] Will Putin give an order to advance?
Initially, the US and other western NATO member states raised their voices and warned that Russian troops would advance into Ukraine territory on the 16th of this week.
It must not have been a baseless statement, as he was reading the deployment of the Russian army's troops through satellite images and wiretapping.
Russia says 'NATO is accelerating the crisis.
We had no intention of an invasion,' he said, past that date.
From the standpoint of the United States and other countries, they did not directly raise their sticks against the wolves, but the villagers gathered together and shouted to prevent the attack of the wolves.
Some view this as 'they missed the point at which Russia could maximize the effect of the invasion'.
It may be, but in Putin's mind, another clock may be running in the first place.
In the first place, Putin is a powerful person who is very good at hiding his intentions.
Whether he will advance tanks as far as the Ukrainian capital Kiev and replace Ukraine's pro-Western government with a pro-Russian puppet government, or whether he will use limited force mainly in the eastern Donbas region, which already has Russian sphere of influence, will increase political pressure, it is unclear at this time. it's difficult.
In the United States, President Biden and Secretary of State Blincoln came forward to warn of the possibility of the former, and intelligence authorities in neighboring countries such as Estonia are discussing the latter possibility.
If the scenario the US fears becomes a reality, there will be huge casualties.
Putin has also called up his troops in the Far East, more than 7,000 kilometers from Ukraine, and it is unclear whether he will resign without satisfactory results.
It is a very worrying sign, said US Defense Secretary Austin, that Russian troops are carrying blood to the border for transfusions of wounded soldiers.
If the invasion is carried out, it is predicted that the Russian military will manipulate the justification of 'the Ukrainian side struck first'.
This is not new in the history of war.
There are many examples, such as when German forces invaded Eastern Europe, such as Poland, or when Japan caused the Manchurian Incident.
(Composition: Senior Correspondent Lee Hyun-sik (D Content Production Committee member), Reporter Jang Seon-i / Designer: Myung Ha-eun, Park Jeong-ha)