Halfway into February, it can already be stated that the period January-February this year is the bloodiest since the police began to report their monthly statistics on shootings just over five years ago.

A total of 23 people were hit by bullets, in eleven cases it was fatal.

- We have a high level of firearm violence right now.

We have seen similar levels before, but it is unusual to have such a high level at the beginning of the year.

January-February are usually calmer months, with fewer shootings, says Manne Gerell, associate professor of criminology at Malmö University.

Cooling reduces the level of conflict

That it is usually calmer this time of year is probably due to the climate.

Research has shown that the level of violence increases during the hot months of the year.

- Violence generally increases in April-May and reaches a peak during the summer.

It is probably about being more outdoors and more in environments where you meet others and can end up in conflict, says Manne Gerell.

More often fatal outcome

Something that also stands out during the beginning of the year is the proportion of those shot who die from their injuries.

Of the confirmed shootings in which people were injured, almost half ended in fatal outcome.

This is in line with a development that has taken place over several years - that the proportion of fatal shootings has slowly increased.

According to Manne Gerell, this is probably due to a change in the behavior of the perpetrators.

Previous Swedish studies have shown that the average number of shots fired during shootings has increased sharply.

The same applies to the number of gunshot wounds.

Heavier weapons and more shots

- It seems to have to do with the fact that you more often try to kill, and less often shoot to injure.

This is reflected in the fact that more shots are fired and heavier weapons are used.

In several of the recent fatal shootings, the victim has been hit in the head.

Whether it has become more common is unclear, but it is possible that such a factor affects, says Manne Gerell.

- If you want to ensure that someone dies, you may shoot them an extra time in the head.