One boot step back, two cyberattacks forward?
Ukraine and the NATO countries do not know on which foot to dance after the Russian announcements, Wednesday, February 16, concerning the “partial” withdrawal of troops on the Ukrainian border.
On the one hand, videos released by Moscow show military vehicles driving away from the border, suggesting that the “risk of an invasion of Ukraine by Russia has indeed diminished”, estimated John Sawers, l ex-boss of MI6, the British foreign intelligence service, interviewed by the BBC.
Waiting for the withdrawal of Russian troops
But on the other hand, these few videos are not enough to completely reassure Washington, London or even NATO.
Especially since some governments, starting with the American administration, believed that the Russian army was ready to launch an offensive on Wednesday.
Western capitals have therefore demanded additional proof of the effective withdrawal of Russian soldiers.
Especially since, since Tuesday, cyberattacks attributed to Russian hackers have targeted several Ukrainian institutions, including banks.
It is thus only with lip service that Western officials agree to pronounce the word "de-escalation".
Indeed, the extent of the withdrawal seems, for the time being, still limited.
“For the moment, I have only been able to confirm a few movements south of Crimea and around Kursk”, specifies Gustav Gressel, specialist in Russian military issues at the European Council on International Relations, contacted by France 24.
Russian military choices that are not synonymous with major de-escalation.
“In Crimea, there were anyway too many Russian soldiers compared to the capacities of the amphibious invasion vehicles present in the region”, explains this specialist.
The troops that seem to be leaving from the Kursk region “were positioned back from the border and served as a reserve”, notes Gustav Gressel.
According to him, these moves do not change the big picture: “Russia is still perfectly capable of launching a major military operation at any time.”
Unless these withdrawals are just the start of a larger movement in the coming weeks.
This is what Jeff Hawn, a specialist in Russia at the London School of Economics, thinks, contacted by France 24. “The goal of Moscow is to return to a military presence similar to that of last November, that is to say with less than 100,000 men”, he estimates.
Russia aware of the limits of its strategy
The reason for this optimism is that “Vladimir Putin believes he has obtained all he could from the military escalation and is in a good position to give diplomatic negotiations a chance”, underlines Jeff Hawn.
The most important thing for Moscow is that "Russian security concerns [in relation to the presence of NATO in Eastern Europe] have returned to the top of the international diplomatic agenda", confirms to the BBC John Sawers, l ex-director of MI6.
It would also be a good time for the master of the Kremlin to press the military brake pedal.
“Washington and other Western powers have for several days been very alarmist about the risk of conflict.
The decision of several countries to withdraw their diplomatic personnel from Ukraine may give the impression that the West is in a logic of escalation.
Faced with this, the Russian announcement of a withdrawal allows Vladimir Putin to appear as a mature leader who knows how to keep his calm”, analyzes Jeff Hawn.
“It is certain that Moscow is currently seeking to change its image as the great villain of history”, estimates Gustav Gressel.
Although this expert from the European Council on International Relations is less convinced, for his part, of a gradual withdrawal, he nevertheless believes that Russia is aware of the limits of its strategy.
The problem is that the sound of Russian boots completely drowns out “the voices of those in Europe who seek to plead the cause of Vladimir Putin, while strengthening the camp of those who plead for exemplary sanctions against Moscow.
By staging even a partial withdrawal, the Russian president hopes to give some ammunition to his influence relays in Brussels in order to gain time to organize the rest of the events”, notes Gustav Gressel.
In other words, these maneuvers by Russian soldiers should allow Gerhard Schröder, the former German chancellor who has become a lobbyist for the Russian cause, and others, to be more audible when they assure us that Moscow does not want war.
Cyberattacks as an alternative means of pressure
The recent cyberattacks against Ukraine attributed to Russia are, paradoxically, another sign that the military option has been put on hold for the time being.
"If Russia had wanted to prepare an armed offensive, cyberattacks would have targeted infrastructures such as power plants or communication networks", underlines Jeff Hawn.
In this case, the type of attacks perpetrated in recent days - making inaccessible the sites of banks and institutions - represents “the basics of what cybercriminals can do.
It's a bit like, in terms of damage, graffiti on a wall”, underlines the expert from the London School of Economics.
But it is also “a warning”, said Adam Meyers, vice-director of CrowdStrike, one of the main American computer security companies, on the English-speaking antenna of France 24. These Russian hackers did not choose their targets by chance.
“They went after two banks in which two-thirds of Ukrainians have an account into which their salary is paid.
It's a way of making it clear that they know where to strike to inflict significant economic damage,” says Gustav Gressel.
These cyberattacks represent “a way for Russia to maintain pressure on Ukraine while playing the de-escalation card”, summarizes Jeff Hawn.
This may be a sign that Russia is entering a new phase of the conflict, where it is showing that it has other tricks up its sleeve than the simple threat of sending tanks to Kiev.
The Duma passed a law on Tuesday that “allows Vladimir Putin to recognize the independence of the pro-Russian regions in Ukraine at any time [essentially the Donbass region, editor's note]”, notes Jeff Hawn.
This is yet another weapon that the Kremlin can wield in an attempt to extract concessions from Kiev and NATO.
"The Russian president will now try to see which options bring him the most for the lowest possible diplomatic cost," said Gustav Gressel.
Eventually, it may very well be that all of the soldiers respawn at the border if the rest doesn't work.
The summary of the
France 24 week invites you to come back to the news that marked the week
I subscribe
Take international news everywhere with you!
Download the France 24 app
google-play-badge_EN