Towards an imminent withdrawal of French forces in Mali?

Under pressure from the ruling junta, Paris and its European partners are preparing to announce their withdrawal from the country, while preparing the outlines of the future French regional military system.

According to several concordant sources, President Emmanuel Macron is due to announce, on the evening of Wednesday February 16 or Thursday February 17, a withdrawal from Mali of French forces from Operation Barkhane on the sidelines of a European Union - African Union summit scheduled for Brussels.

Symbol of a Europe of defense dear to the French president, the European group of special forces Takuba initiated by Paris in 2020 to share the security burden, should also leave the country and will dissolve.

A mini-summit in Paris with the heads of state of Sahelian countries (Niger, Chad, Mauritania) and several West African countries must take place before announcements, the spokesperson for the French government stressed on Tuesday. , Gabriel Attal.

The status quo is "not possible in a very degraded context in Mali, with the seizure of power by a junta, the refusal to apply a timetable for the return to democratic order which had nevertheless been announced and the recourse to a Russian private militia", Wagner, reputedly close to the Kremlin, he argued.

>> To read: Barkhane, Takuba, Saber: the French and European military presence in the Sahel

"It's impossible to continue under these conditions, all the other allies think the same thing," Estonian Defense Minister Kalle Laanet told the press on Saturday.

Some 25,000 men are currently deployed in the Sahel, including around 4,300 French (2,400 in Mali as part of the anti-jihadist operation Barkhane), according to the Élysée.

Double concern for a withdrawal from Mali for France

Hampered and vilified for several weeks by the Bamako junta which came to power after two coups, France has consulted its allies intensely to decide on the future of their action in Mali, after nine years of uninterrupted anti-jihadist struggle in which it ended up succeeding in involving European partners. 

Today, Takuba's Europeans as well as British and American partners, who contribute to the effort in Mali, seem to have overcome some disagreements, in particular on the risk of leaving the field open to Russian influence in Mali, according to several sources. close to the case interviewed by AFP.

>> To read: Why Operation Barkhane failed to stem insecurity in the Sahel

This united front was a political imperative for the Élysée, with a double concern: to reduce the exposure of France, a former colonial power, against a backdrop of growing anti-French sentiment in the Sahel, and to avoid an unflattering comparison with the departure unilateral and chaotic action by the Americans in Afghanistan last August.

According to a French source close to the Élysée, France has promised to coordinate its withdrawal with the UN mission in Mali and the European Union Training Mission in Mali (EUTM), which will continue to benefit from a French air and medical support on the spot, before the subsequent transfer of these means. 

Pursue the anti-jihadist fight in the region

On the other hand, "the real 'game changer' is that overnight the Malian armed forces will be deprived of our air support, which poses a risk of a security vacuum", underlines this source to AFP.

In the midst of the French presidency of the EU and two months before the French presidential election – in which Emmanuel Macron will no doubt stand again – a forced withdrawal from Mali, where 48 French soldiers have been killed (53 in the Sahel), constitutes a painful setback.

Paris, however, intends to continue the anti-jihadist fight in the region, where movements affiliated with Al-Qaeda or the Islamic State group have retained a strong power of nuisance despite the elimination of many leaders.

"We need to reinvent our military partnership with these countries, according to the French presidency. It is not a question of moving what is being done in Mali elsewhere, but of reinforcing what is being done in Niger and of supporting more South".

The Minister for the Armed Forces, Florence Parly, went to Niamey at the beginning of February to meet with the Nigerien President, Mohamed Bazoum, when Niger already hosts a French air base.

Paris also aims to offer its services to other West African countries (Côte d'Ivoire, Senegal, Benin, etc.) to help them counter the spread of jihadism towards the Gulf of Guinea.

Drawing the consequences of disappointed strategic ambitions

Three homemade bomb attacks last week killed at least 9 people, including a Frenchman, in northern Benin.

On Saturday, France announced that it had eliminated in neighboring Burkina Faso 40 jihadists involved in these attacks.

The challenge for the coming months will be to make the French presence less visible through enhanced "cooperation", without replacing local forces.

Paris will also have to draw the consequences of its disappointed strategic ambitions in Mali, despite undeniable tactical victories against armed groups.

The Malian political power has never really deployed the means necessary to deploy its authority and services in the semi-desert areas raked by the soldiers of the Barkhane force.

And the local army remains very fragile, despite the efforts made for years to train and toughen it up. 

In the Gulf countries, "it would be important to learn from the mistakes of the Sahel, where counter-productive solutions have led to a disavowal of state security policies and the intervention of their international partners", believes Bakary Sambé, regional director of the Timbuktu Institute.

With AFP

The summary of the

France 24 week invites you to come back to the news that marked the week

I subscribe

Take international news everywhere with you!

Download the France 24 app

google-play-badge_EN