For Wednesday, exactly 3 a.m. Ukrainian time, The Sun had predicted the Russian attack on Ukraine.

The British tabloid cited American intelligence information after Moscow had already sent out signals to relax.

And even after the deadline had passed, it was still ready for the self-declared "D-Day".

Unlike the NATO defense ministers.

They were not in an apocalyptic mood when they arrived in Brussels in the morning.

The immediate danger of war seemed gone.

Federal Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht spoke of "signals that make us feel hopeful".

"Diplomacy is now in demand again."

Thomas Gutschker

Political correspondent for the European Union, NATO and the Benelux countries based in Brussels.

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Of course, the SPD politician carefully balanced her message.

The deployment of troops at the border "continues to give cause for concern," she said.

"We will not be naïve, but will be watching closely what measures Russia is now taking." It now comes down to "dialogue and deterrence".

Even the NATO Secretary General has not yet seen any signs of de-escalation.

"On the contrary, it seems that Russia is continuing to deploy troops," said Jens Stoltenberg.

This was confirmed by Western intelligence circles, but also by independent military analysts.

There are new satellite images that document that attack helicopters stationed in the west of the annexed Crimean peninsula have been withdrawn there.

But their whereabouts are uncertain.

Even if some material and soldiers are actually moved back, new trains are still arriving in the regions around Ukraine every day, bringing heavy equipment.

In intelligence circles, the number of Russian battalion combat groups (BTGs) is now 105, ten more than a week ago.

Fourteen more are said to be on the way.

Independent experts identified units of the 2nd Combined Arms Army whose tanks, howitzers and rocket launchers arrived in Kursk for the first time on Tuesday.

This means that all eleven combined arms armies of the Russian army are now present with units near the Ukrainian border.

Of course, a delay effect is conceivable: an order from Moscow to withdraw cannot be implemented immediately, so it would take several days in any case before significant withdrawals could be seen.

Mission in Romania

At NATO, the prevailing view is that Russian President Vladimir Putin will at most withdraw some of his troops in order to continue to maintain the threat against Ukraine and to have leverage in negotiations with the West.

It is considered positive that Putin, for the first time, indicated his willingness to talk to the Alliance and the United States about arms controls and confidence-building measures.

In January, Stoltenberg invited Moscow to three further, thematically structured meetings of the NATO-Russia Council.

However, there is no answer.

Allianz is eagerly awaiting a ten-page letter from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, which he announced on Monday.