How will the world change if Russia invades Ukraine? .. An American expert explains

The "third invasion" that Vladimir Putin might carry out on Ukraine would be "large-scale, brutal and decisive" and "horrendously change Europe forever", according to researcher David Hartmann, who says in an article for the National Interest that the West can "prevent" this. invasion.

The American scholar, an associate professor of Russian war affairs at the George C. Marshall Center, a former defense attache in Tbilisi, Georgia, and Tashkent, Uzbekistan, and a former chief of international affairs in the U.S. military, warns that there will be millions of refugees, and disruptions to energy markets will ignite. Economic crises across Europe and the United States.

He says that the consequences of this expected invasion on the United States, Europe and Russia require every possible effort to prevent it.

According to Hartmann, the Russian leadership is not afraid of the threat of imposing sanctions. Indeed, sanctions on Russia may have "hardened its economy", as Russia's gold reserves, the largest in the world, increased by $80 billion over the $600 billion it was in 2014.

Moreover, it is likely that China agreed to support the Russian economy by offering alternatives to the SWIFT financial system, from which Russia's exclusion could lead to Europe having difficulties buying the energy it needs from Moscow.

For years, Chinese President Xi Jinping has been trying to offer alternatives to Swift, New York and London.

This is a test for China as well.

Moreover, even if Russia is cut off from Swift, how can Germany pay for natural gas from Russia?

How will the Netherlands buy so much European oil?

In these last moments, it takes bold and focused American leadership to unite the world, stand by Ukraine, and convince Putin that Russia's post-invasion security environment will be much worse than it is today.

He added, "The last three US administrations have been very careful to avoid direct confrontation with Russia, and that was wise, but there has never been reciprocity for years."

"Russia has instigated unsafe actions against US military aircraft and US Navy ships in the Baltic and Black Seas and as far away as the Pacific," he said.

In Syria, Russian military units rammed US army combat vehicles, and Russian-sponsored special military formations sought confrontation with US special forces.

"We don't even need to mention Russian cyberattacks against the United States," Hartmann says, stressing that "Russia is not afraid of escalation, and that the United States' credibility is at stake, yet it appears that it is not even ready to defend itself."

Hartmann believes that "the situation in the United States will only worsen with a decisive invasion of Ukraine."

He adds, "The United States tried to evade this issue because Ukraine is not an ally of NATO, but was Kuwait an ally of NATO? Was it Bosnia? Kosovo?"

“The question should be whether a large-scale and decisive invasion of Ukraine will harm the national interests of the United States, and whether or not Ukraine is a NATO ally, the credibility of the United States is at stake, and is likely to become a springboard for new challenges to the security interests of the United States,” he emphasized. In East Asia, the Middle East and elsewhere.

Scholar Hartmann warned that if Russia takes control of Ukraine, its unacceptable and unreasonable demands will not stop.

Hartmann says that the world will be completely different after Russia's third and decisive invasion of Ukraine, and after this war, there will be a permanent Russian military presence in Belarus on new fronts against Poland and Lithuania.

He said that Russia's focus will be directed towards Georgia, and Russia will dominate more on the Black Sea, which it wants as another stronghold for sea-launched missiles.

The researcher emphasized that “the first political goal of the United States and its allies should be to prevent this war with all instruments of American national power. Senior American leaders, especially President Joe Biden, should go to eastern Ukraine, meet with Ukrainian leaders, and show U.S. support materially, rallying U.S. allies and partners at the point of impact.

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