American analysts Lawrence Korb and Steve Cymbala: War is always an arena of the unexpected
Invading Ukraine will not fulfill Russia's dreams
Ukrainian forces conduct military exercises in one of the border areas with Russia.
AFP
Ukraine's Defense Minister (right) receives some of the military pieces that Germany sent as part of NATO's efforts to strengthen Kiev's defenses.
Reuters
picture
With Russia massing more than 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border, the United States and NATO countries responded by threatening Moscow with tough political and economic sanctions if Russian forces invaded Ukraine.
But Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, and its continuing turmoil in its eastern neighbor since 2014, indicates that Western threats do not always fall on deaf ears from Russian President Vladimir Putin, which opens the door to the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, whether full or partial. .
In this context, American analysts, Lawrence Korb, who served as Assistant Secretary of Defense from 1981 to 1985, and Steve Cymbala, a prominent professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania, published an analysis on the American National Interest website, in which they confirmed that the invasion of Ukraine would not achieve expectations. And dreams of Russia.
Some Russian analysts and officials assume that if Moscow decides to launch a large-scale military operation against Ukraine, the result will be decisive and quick, because the Ukrainian forces will not be able to resist for long, given the overwhelming military, air and sea superiority of the Russian forces.
A call to unity
But Lawrence Korb, a senior researcher at the American Progressive Institute, and Steve Cymbala, author of several books on national security, argue that if Russia decides to launch a massive invasion of Ukraine, rather than launch a limited operation against the disputed Donbass region, its hopes for a victory Fast and decisive, and at an affordable cost, will disappoint, as some analysts fail to consider all the factors that could turn on the Russian planners.
The irony is that NATO's insistence on pretending that the door to NATO membership must remain open to Ukraine, and Russia's insistence on the necessity of announcing the alliance in advance to close the door to Ukraine, clearly ignores the military and strategic realities.
NATO is neither ready nor inclined to defend Ukraine by armed force, and has not invited Kiev to join it yet.
increased isolation
In short, any major war in Ukraine will increase Russia's political isolation and expose it to great military losses, in light of the fact that the Russian armed forces are already suffering from their wide spread to confront threats in the Caucasus region, Central Asia, Syria, and on the Chinese borders.
Putin also risks provoking internal protests if the casualties among the Russian forces fighting in Ukraine are significant, or if the operational and tactical failure of the Russian forces becomes evident in the early stages of the conflict.
And war is always an unexpected arena.
Fighting can be viewed through Murphy's Law, and Carl von Clausewitz's reminders that "friction" occurs as soon as the shooting starts, making the difference between war on paper and the reality of military action.
Most importantly, any military confrontation between Russia and "NATO" will be in the rhythm of a nuclear escalation.
As it is assumed, the two sides should learn from the experiences of the Cold War that the risk of a nuclear confrontation will remain in any military confrontation between the United States and Russia.
Even without threats from NATO and Russia to use nuclear weapons, any direct military confrontation opens the door to unintended errors and miscalculations, leaving any conflict out of the control of policy makers.
Any assumption on the part of NATO or Russia that a "selective" use of tactical nuclear weapons would prevent further escalation is wrong and dangerous, according to Korb and Simbala's analysis.
However, the confrontation with Russia over Ukraine presents an opportunity for NATO to rethink its purpose and priorities during the 21st century.
The alliance's past success has been based on clarity and unity about its mission, which is to defend democracies in Europe. NATO is not a virus that seeks to spread anywhere possible with the aim of spreading, nor is it a substitute for a broader European security grouping that includes Russia and other non-members of the European Union. NATO at the moment.
Many "NATO" countries have enough internal challenges to preserve their political freedoms and democracy in the face of internal rather than external threats.
Analysts Korb and Simbala warn that the toxic mix of populism, patriotism, polarization, media lies, educational inefficiency, and extremism will plunge the "free world" into the abyss of anti-democratic self-destruction, without any help from external enemies, so the United States and its NATO allies Prepare for the possibility that Putin and other opponents of Western countries will resort to a combination of “grey zone” war tactics to maximize benefits and minimize risks for Moscow.
It is possible that Russia will resort to a mixture of diplomatic, military, economic and information measures, in order to put the United States and its allies in a state of imbalance, political confusion, and military unpreparedness. Ukrainian.
• NATO's insistence on pretending that the door to NATO membership should remain open to Ukraine, and Russia's insistence on the necessity of announcing the alliance in advance to close the door to Ukraine, clearly ignores the military and strategic realities.
• The huge Russian military build-up on Ukraine's borders provides a new stimulus for the political unity of the countries of the "NATO" alliance, increasing its military readiness, and enhancing the desire to study Ukraine's request to join the alliance.
• Putin risks provoking internal protests, if the casualties among the Russian forces fighting in Ukraine are large, or if the operational and tactical failure of the Russian forces becomes apparent in the early stages of the conflict.
Follow our latest local and sports news and the latest political and economic developments via Google news