Live Elections Castilla y León, last minute
The operation of the PP to advance the elections in Castilla y León has turned out to be ruinous.
A big fiasco.
The
popular
have achieved a pyrrhic victory of 31 seats with which they will save the barony of Alfonso Fernández Mañueco, but they will do so at the cost of suffering a very strong wear and of having generated a diabolical scenario for the national PP, because the leadership of Pablo Casado comes out weakened and more questioned, and because he is absolutely mortgaged by Vox, the worst of the foreseen scenarios with an eye on the
Andalusian
elections and the future duel with Pedro Sánchez.
The leader of the PP had raised these elections as the springboard on which to take a great leap towards Moncloa.
Well, what the result shows is that in the attempt to propel himself he tripped and fell on his face.
And of course, the blow will leave bruises and wounds.
Or what is the same, the internal debate on the solvency of Casado's project and on whether he is in a position to dispute the victory in the 2023 generals will be revived.
Genoa wanted to use the electoral advance to consolidate the "change of the political cycle" in Spain, linking three consecutive loose victories against the PSOE in Madrid, Castilla y León and, later, Andalusia, but this result, although it was a victory, leaves more doubts what strengths
To begin with, because the one who truly comes out grown and revalued is Vox, to whom the PP could tie its future in Castilla y León, in an alliance that harms Juanma Moreno in Andalusia and that mobilizes a lot on the left.
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Elections Castilla y León 2022 Hemicycle
Castilla y León is not just any community for the PP.
It is his great fiefdom, his historical barn of votes.
Hence, it is not enough to have won, because the result has been truly bitter.
It has fallen well short of all the expectations created and because it seems that the puncture has been the consequence of a campaign in which the PP has failed in its three great challenges: it has not managed to mobilize its own, it has not been able to absorb to a great extent the vote of Citizens -despite the collapse that the orange party has experienced- and, especially, it has demonstrated its impotence to combat the rise of Vox.
All in all, the PP has won 31 seats, which is two more than in 2019, when it then lost the regional elections to the PSOE.
Now he has won again and that fact is what the PP clung to last night to instill optimism in his people when it came to selling them the result of 13-F as that of a "mission accomplished."
However, it must be remembered that the advance has been a matter of the PP, which has been the one who has managed the times and the surprise factor, and the outcome is that everything has served to be in worse conditions than before.
It is true that the PP can boast of having achieved that goal, that of winning, as well as having done so with another, adding more seats than PSOE (28) and United We Can (1) combined.
The problem is that this scenario lost all the value that was assumed because the PP barely grew and, therefore, has no capacity to add an alternative that leaves Vox out.
With at least 34 seats, the hypothesis would have been different because it could have used forces like Soria ¡Ya!, Unión del Pueblo Leonés (UPL) or Por Ávila to find her.
But at 31, no.
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31.4% of the votes seems like a completely insufficient result since it is practically the same as it achieved in the 2019 elections. The thing is that then Ciudadanos had 14.94% of the vote and now it has been 4, fifty%.
That means that the operation of the PP to unify the vote around him -the famous hostile takeover bid against Ciudadanos- is far from being a massive transfer.
There is no sum.
And that is because the PP does not capture all the orange vote that it aspired to capture and because it still has a significant vote leak towards Vox, which it does not know how to or cannot plug.
Despite being a pyrrhic triumph, the only good news for the PP is that it saves one of its historic baronies.
Mañueco has all the options to govern and revalidate the Presidency of the Board but he already knows that he is going to have to pay a high price to Vox.
But the worst thing is not that he asks for it, but knowing that you have no other alternative than to pay it.
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This means that the PP is fully mortgaged to Vox for the first time.
Until now, the pacts in communities and city councils had been coalitions with Citizens, leaving Vox a secondary role in which it was limited to providing external support to complete the absolute majority.
Now none of that.
The variable of the orange party has disappeared from the equation and PP and Vox are condemned to negotiate now, although the PP is reluctant to say if it would accept integrating it into the coalition government.
In any case, the question hangs in the air whether the PP has done a good job in bringing forward the elections to change a moderate partner like Ciudadanos for one like Vox.
This causes a problem for Casado, especially if he ends up in a coalition.
Genoa's plan was to arrive immaculate regarding the pacts with Vox until the general elections so as not to appear with what could be a burden before the moderate electorate.
That objective seems very difficult and not only complicates Casado, but also Moreno's prospects, who now has the role of deciding whether to advance to June or if he waits so that the fiasco of 13-F does not splash him.
GENOA DEFENDS A GOVERNMENT OF MANUECO WITHOUT VOX
Teodoro Garcia Egea.
The leadership of the PP defended yesterday that in Castilla y León "it must" govern the PP.
To dry.
The general secretary of the PP, Teodoro García Egea, thus hinted that he does not contemplate a coalition Executive with Vox.
In his opinion, Mañueco "has the legitimacy to give the Castilian and Leonese a government that can without ties" carry out the ideas and proposals of the PP and opened the door to negotiate with "the provincial platforms" for his support.
For his part, Mañueco also said that he will speak with "everyone."
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