The continuous survey of Sigma Dos, in EL MUNDO from 8:00 p.m.

Readers of EL MUNDO will be able to find out today, when the schools close at 8:00 p.m., and without having to wait for the count, the voting trends of Castilians and Leonese.

will provide the data from its continuous survey through the

panel , which, with a combined methodology of telephone and

survey , has monitored the vote for the last two weeks until yesterday for a sample of more than 3,600 voters.

Trustsurvey has more than 50,000 panelists and is based on software developed with the department of artificial intelligence of the

, financed by

of the

.

Trustsurvey monitors panelist responses and conversation on social media to augment data sources.

It is a novel exercise in electoral prospecting that will allow for an extensive analysis of elections marked by uncertainty.

Although they are regional elections, as they are an early call, they will be held for the first time independently of the municipal ones, which increases their importance.

National leaders are well aware that what comes out of the polls today conditions the political future of the entire country.

Today citizens will leave home to vote only for their representatives in the regional assembly, a reason traditionally less motivating than electing their mayors.

In 2019, the participation was 65.8% for the regional ones and 71% for the municipal ones.

“A low turnout, as a result of a lower motivation of the conservative vote, benefits the PSOE in principle.

Below 60% participation, PP and Vox could have difficulties adding enough attorneys, but it will also depend on how that drop is distributed, "reflects

, director of Studies at Sigma Dos.

On the other hand, the data in the last week has moved significantly, which shows that the surveys with the greatest predictive capacity are those closest to the polls: precisely those that cannot be published.

“For the sake of the necessary transparency that every mature democracy needs, it would be more logical to invert the electoral law and specifically allow the publication of the polls in the last week: the voters, whom we must treat as adults, would make their decision with the more information available," says De la Fuente.

José Luis Rojo

, deputy director of Research at Sigma Dos, confirms: «Fragmentation is one of the keys to understanding uncertainty.

81 attorneys are being distributed among eight parties with real options to enter parliament, throughout the nine provinces of the Community.

In

,

and

there are five parties disputing seats.

Those three constituencies will be key to determining the result.

«The remains of votes in these provinces can decide several deputies.

We are talking about movements of attorneys by 20 or 100 votes, for example, "concludes Rojo.

"These regional elections are the sum of nine provincial elections, each one with different problems and feelings of identity," adds

, Director of Communication at Sigma Dos.

“That is why the surveys are especially complex: in reality you have to do nine surveys that are added together,” he explains.

Miguel de la Fuente introduces one more element that raises uncertainty.

"Unlike what happened in

's PP

managed to impose the axis 'freedom' against 'restrictions', here no axis has been dominant in the campaign debate, which would partly explain why all the parties have options to achieve representation and, conversely, that no one plays with a decisive advantage", he argues.

Finally, Antonio Asencio points out: "Surveys do not make predictions, they make forecasts, which is not exactly the same. A prediction is an exact prediction of the future, and a forecast is a definition of probable horizons based on trends. Our work is It is more like that of meteorologists, who are used to putting a probability index before a rain or sun icon. In the Spanish demoscopic it is not customary to speak of probabilities, but in reality our data are the result of a probabilistic calculation, of hence we give forks of deputies, who translate that uncertainty".

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Know more

• Regional Elections

• Castile and Leon

• THE WORLD

• PSOE

• vox

• PP

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