Ilan Berman, vice president of the American Council on Foreign Policy, questioned the strength of domestic support for Russian President Vladimir Putin, noting it is a question worth asking amid heightened tensions between Moscow and the West and the growing possibility of some kind of military confrontation over Ukraine.

Berman indicated - in an article in the American magazine "Newsweek" - that over the past weeks, the Russian military build-up in the face of Ukraine ignited a heated debate in Washington and other capitals about the appropriate way to avoid a new war in Europe.

He stated that so far all arguments - whether in favor of supporting Ukraine and NATO (NATO) or against them - have a common denominator, which is that they presuppose that the Kremlin's war plans are a popular national project supported by a large segment of the Russian people, and as a result Putin has an internal mandate to move forward. militarily advanced.

The writer commented that there is mounting evidence that this may not be the case;

At the end of last January, more than two thousand Russian intellectuals issued a public statement urging the Kremlin to avoid launching a war of choice against its neighbour, saying that “Russia does not need a war with Ukraine and the West; no one threatens us, no one attacks us. The existing policy promoting the idea of ​​such a war is an immoral, irresponsible and criminal policy that cannot be carried out on behalf of the peoples of Russia."

The writer added that a few days later, another group of prominent national figures;

The political scientist Andrei Piontkovsky, the sociologist Lev Gudkov, and the politician Grigory Yavlinsky described the same situation in the pages of The New York Review of Books.

The main point of their open letter - signed by nearly 90 intellectuals - was irrefutable, which is that the Kremlin is conducting this war without the consent of the Russian people.

Even Russian policymakers are beginning to waver, with reports that US intelligence agencies have intercepted communications between Kremlin officials who fear that a large-scale invasion of Ukraine will be more difficult, with more economic and political consequences than is generally understood.

Their letter stated, "There is no public debate, and state television presents only one opinion, that of the warmongers. Direct military threats, aggression and hate target Ukraine, the United States and the West. But the most dangerous thing is that war is portrayed not only as permissible, but as An attempt to deceive the people into imposing the idea of ​​a crusade against the West, instead of investing in the development of the country and the improvement of living standards. The cost of the conflict was never discussed, but the huge bloody price to be paid by the common Russian people."

The writer added that Russian intellectuals are not alone in these feelings, and that fears of the possible dire consequences of a new military offensive against Ukraine are now resonating in the ranks of the Russian army.

General Leonid Ivashov, influential head of the All-Russian Officers' Association (a civilian group of retired Russian flag officers), issued a public appeal in late January against potential conflict, noting that Russia (and before that the Soviet Union) waged just wars "when There was no other way out," and "when the vital interests of the state and society were threatened."

Today, by contrast, external threats are "not critical", "the maintenance of strategic stability with NATO exists", and Russia's main problems are "internal".

Even Russian policymakers are beginning to waver, with reports that US intelligence agencies have intercepted communications between Kremlin officials who fear that a large-scale invasion of Ukraine will be more difficult and will have more economic and political consequences than is generally understood.

Nevertheless, Putin relies on the approval of key Russian elites to maintain his grip on power.

Yet the tense domestic attitudes now emerging across the country's political spectrum suggest that at least some of the Russian president's supporters have come to believe that the costs of his planned adventure will outweigh any potential benefits;

This, more than any Western threat, may be helpful in getting Putin to notice.