Egyptian withdrawal and Israeli penetration... The Renaissance Dam and the results of Mubarak's neglect of Africa

Cairo -

In the 1990s, the famous Egyptian thinker Gamal Hamdan called for Africa to have an important place in Egyptian politics, in the interest of the economy and development, and to protect national security and to confront the Israeli incursion into the continent.

However, Hamdan’s call, which came in his book “We and Our Four Dimensions,” and the calls of other thinkers and politicians fell on deaf ears to the regime of the late President Hosni Mubarak, who pursued a contradictory policy and neglected Africa, worsening relations with its countries and losing Cairo its great position in the continent, according to researchers. and opponents.

On the 11th anniversary of Mubarak's stepping down after the January 25, 2011 revolution, there is renewed talk of what opponents called the "disadvantages" of his regime internally and externally, especially the neglect of African relations, which led to the weakening of Egypt's leading and historical role, and paved the way for Ethiopia to build the Renaissance Dam.

That journey of neglect ended with the Framework Agreement for the Nile Basin Countries, known as the “Entebbe Agreement”, whose founding framework was signed in 2010 between Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania and Kenya, and it is one of the Nile headwaters countries that have gathered many reasons that push them away from Cairo.

The "Entebbe Agreement" stipulates the termination of the historical shares of the downstream countries Egypt and Sudan (55.5 billion cubic meters, 18.5 billion), which contributed to opening the door for Ethiopia to start building a dam that seriously threatens Cairo's share, and will even make Addis Ababa a single controller of the river during the drought years.

contradictory relationships

Returning to the history of Egyptian-African relations since the second half of the twentieth century, we find that they witnessed various stages that were characterized by extreme contradictions. During the era of President Gamal Abdel Nasser, who ruled in the fifties and sixties of the last century, Egypt enjoyed a great position on the continent after its strong support for African liberation movements. And hosted a number of revolutionaries and leaders.

Abdel Nasser worked to consolidate his relations with African countries, win over their people through trade exchange, send missions, establish projects, and employ the Egyptian soft power represented by Al-Azhar and the Coptic Church, until Cairo had a wide cultural, economic and political presence on this continent.

But the strong relations declined during the era of President Anwar Sadat, who led the country in the seventies of the last century and moved towards the Western camp led by the United States, to the point of marginalization and hidden hostility under the rule of President Hosni Mubarak, which began in 1981 and lasted for about 30 years.

negligence policy

Mubarak began his reign with attempts to strengthen relations with African countries in light of the Arab boycott of Egypt, which was twice elected to head the Organization of African Unity (later the African Union) in 1989 and 1993.

According to diplomats and experts on African affairs, the attempt to assassinate Mubarak in Addis Ababa in 1995 represented a sharp turn in Egyptian-African relations, and paved the way for years of neglect and complete apathy in relations, as the attitude of the Egyptian regime changed completely towards the continent and the presidential representation of Cairo was absent from African summits.

The former Egyptian diplomat, Bilal Al-Masry, states - in the study "Egyptian Diplomacy: Factors Limiting Its Ability to Solve the Renaissance Dam Crisis" - that during the Mubarak era, Egypt was satisfied with an African policy, most of which are embassies suffering from poor capabilities, in addition to the reluctance of Egyptian foreign ministers and ministers of technical fields such as agriculture, energy and petroleum. And irrigation for official visits to African countries, except rarely.

Al-Masry - who served as ambassador to Angola, Sao Tome and Niger - reveals that even in dealing with the Nile Basin countries, the political leadership during the Mubarak era preferred the "postal system" over direct contacts in dealing with the Nile water issue, and contented itself with sending official or verbal letters through embassies.

In turn, political science professor Salah al-Bandari asserts that Egypt's crisis with the Nile Basin countries was the result of the accumulation of Egyptian foreign policy mistakes.

Al-Bandari explains - in his study "the problem of the Renaissance Dam and the reformulation of Egyptian foreign policy orientations in the African circle" - that Egypt has practiced a policy that bears a degree of "arrogance, neglect and neglect" towards these countries, which prompted a number of them to sign the "Entebbe Agreement" that gave Ethiopia a signal. Starting to build the Renaissance Dam.

Addis Ababa made great strides in building the "Renaissance" and announced in mid-January that it was about to start a series of measures in preparation for the start of the third filling of the dam during next May and June.

economic decline

On the economic side, the majority of Egyptian investors rushed towards European countries and neglected the African continent, due to the political orientation of the state and courtesy of President Mubarak, according to Al-Bandari.

The trade exchange between Egypt and the countries of the continent has declined significantly, to the extent that in 2010 it did not exceed 1% of the total trade relations between Egypt and the outside world.

This decline in Egyptian trade relations at a time when the major countries huddled over the continent’s resources and markets, affected Egypt’s negotiating capabilities with the Nile Basin countries, and reduced its chances of increasing the volume of its trade in general, according to the study “The Seven Mistakes of Egyptian Policy towards Africa” prepared by him. Professor of political science Mahmoud Abul-Enein.

On the military side, there were no military relations between Egypt and the countries of the continent or the Nile Basin with the exception of Sudan, and Mubarak began after 1995 to support the secession of Eritrea and the secession of South Sudan, which led to strained relations with Khartoum and Addis Ababa.

In previous press statements, Mohamed Mahmoud Mohieldin, a member of the international tripartite committee that was formed to study the effects of the Renaissance Dam, said, "Egypt, which left Africa in the mid-seventies of its own free will, is not Egypt that wants to return after 40 years to Africa, which is also not Africa today." .

israel infiltration

Egypt’s role in the African continent declined, especially within the Nile Basin during the Mubarak era, which opened the way for its historical enemy, Israel, to penetrate and play a more influential political, military and economic role in the continent, which, according to Al-Bandari, is considered a strategic theater for managing Tel Aviv’s conflicts with Arab countries, especially Egypt.

Israel worked to strengthen its relations with African countries, led by Ethiopia, and signed two strategic agreements with it in 1998 and 1999 granting Israel military and intelligence facilities in the Ethiopian lands.

In addition to security and military aid and arms deals, Al-Bandari notes that Israel has helped Ethiopia with more than 30 development projects, and companies owned by former Mossad generals have made contributions to agricultural projects and building dams.

Experts and diplomats believe that the role that Israel plays in the African continent and the Nile Basin countries, in particular, came as a result of the vacuum created by the decline of the Egyptian role in that region, especially during Mubarak's rule.

Observers confirm that Tel Aviv played a major role in pushing Ethiopia to move forward in building the Renaissance Dam and threatening Egypt's water security, to pressure Cairo and push it to agree to deliver water to Israel through the Salam and Serapeum canals, which reach the Sinai Peninsula.

And the Israeli penetration in Africa reached such an extent that the Chairperson of the African Union Commission, Moussa Faki, announced last summer the acceptance of Tel Aviv as an observer in the Union without referring to its members.

Although the 35th African Summit - which was held in Addis Ababa in early February - suspended the decision to grant Israel observer status, it announced the formation of a committee to discuss the matter, which may mean the possibility of its acceptance in the future, in a move that threatens the vital and strategic depth of Egypt.