Rafale, F-15: does Indonesia have the means for its ambitions?
A French "rafale" fighter plane, in September 2021. Christophe SIMON AFP / Archivos
Text by: Gabrielle Maréchaux Follow
4 mins
In less than 24 hours, Indonesia made various announcements in terms of armament with the order of 42 Rafale from France and an order offer of 36 F-15 fighter planes by the United States.
But if the need for so much military equipment is not surprising, the feasibility of all these orders remains uncertain.
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From our correspondent in the region,
It was no secret that Indonesia had been trying to replace its air force fleet for several years, competing for it and probing various potential countries such as Japan, Korea, France, the United States and Russia, which was even willing to be partially paid in
palm oil
.
Reluctant to be too dependent on a power, while
the Sino-American tensions worry more and more in the Indo-Pacific
, Indonesia has also always been vigilant not to put all its eggs in one basket.
This week's announcements
therefore came as no surprise to Collin Koh, a researcher at the Institute for Defense and Strategic Studies in Singapore.
But this specialist in regional military issues still poses a big question: does Indonesia have the means to match its ambitions?
“
Indonesian Air Force has a great need for fighter jets.
They have been under capacity for many years
, he develops.
So it's no surprise that they need various fighter jets.
And the Rafales and the F-15s are separate category aircraft.
But unlike the contracts for the Rafale, this sale of F-15 is not confirmed at all.
It's a simple offer to Indonesia.
And the problem is that I'm really not sure that Indonesia can finance these two very expensive programs at the same time.
So it's possible that in the end there will only be money for one of these contracts.
»
Moreover, the climate in Indonesia is not very conducive to large military expenditures, especially after the leak to the press last year of a document approved by the president mentioning 125 billion dollars of expenditure on armaments of here at 2044.
►Read: France, the world's third largest arms exporter
An astronomical sum not at all to everyone's taste in the current context.
"This
had created a controversy, because to defend themselves, the official response was to say
:
'
we will not dig into the state budget for this, but we will take out loans
.'
The Indonesian national debt is already piling up.
And this raises more and more questions in the Indonesian population.
This concern is all the greater since Indonesia already has a lot of things to finance, such as
the construction of a new capital
.
»
So far, this week's announcements have not generated a strong reaction from the population, but while Emmanuel Macron and French Defense Minister Florence Parly have not failed to congratulate themselves on social networks for this contract, on the side of their Indonesian counterparts, we rather tried to be discreet.
42 Burst!
Indonesia chooses French industrial excellence!
The know-how of the more than 400 French companies and thousands of workers who design the Rafale is recognized.
In the Indo-Pacific, this new step strengthens our partnerships.
— Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) February 10, 2022
It's official: Indonesia orders 42 Rafale 🇮🇩🇫🇷
– Florence Parly (@florence_parly) February 10, 2022
For Collin Koh, the purchase of so many combat aircraft could also raise questions about the national army's ability to operate and maintain these new devices:
The Indonesians were primarily interested in American F-35 fighter jets.
But there was concern on the US side about the Indonesian Air Force's ability to operate such technologically advanced craft.
I think some observers are exaggerating when they say the Indonesian Air Force is not trained enough to have sophisticated fighter jets.
It is just as qualified as other armies in the region, but they may not have enough fighter jets, qualified pilots and the necessary infrastructure to support the maintenance of such a fleet.
This clearly must have been a subject of questioning on both the French and American sides, but I
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