Aden
- 11 years have passed since the start of the Yemeni revolution, and the people of this country are still facing a grim reality.
The peaceful uprising that succeeded in 2011 in uniting the Yemenis did not last long in the face of a counter-revolution that threw them into a bloody war, of protracted duration, with multiple parties and results, and threatening to divide the country again.
Yemen is living in tragic conditions in light of the war that has been going on for more than 7 years, and the situation has become more complicated with the multiplicity of armed formations that have confused the scene and deepened separatist tendencies, due to the varying agendas of those forces and the parties supporting them.
The current scene in Yemen, 11 years after the outbreak of the peaceful uprising on February 11, 2011, appears more fragmented in light of the state of division and the transformation of the country into divided regions controlled by warring groups supported by external parties.
Tribal fighters loyal to the government take up their positions in a desert area southeast of Ma'rib in central Yemen (Reuters)
geography of influence
The Yemeni geography shares 4 main forces that control militarily parts of the country:
Yemen's legitimate government backed by a Saudi-led military coalition.
The Iran-backed Houthi movement.
Forces of Tariq Saleh, nephew of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh.
The Southern Transitional Council supported by the UAE.
The central governorate of Ma'rib and the governorates of eastern Yemen are the areas of influence of the Yemeni government forces, while the capital, Sana'a, and large areas in the north of the country are under the control of the Houthis, and the control of the "Southern Transitional Council" is concentrated on the cities of the south, including Aden.
Other forces are deployed along the coastal strip in the southwest of the country, including those led by Brigadier General Tariq Saleh. It is one of the most prominent military factions affiliated with the "National Resistance", and participates in the fight against the Houthis, although it does not recognize the legitimacy of President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi.
conflict projects
In the general scene, 3 multi-faceted projects are fighting over the division of Yemen:
The Houthi project, which seeks to consolidate the pillars of his rule in the north.
Transitional project, which seeks the secession of the south.
The federal state project led by President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi.
The secession project adopted by the Transitional Council and supported by the UAE, materially and morally, appears to be the most present at the present time, after the transformation of the political entities that were calling for secession before the outbreak of the youth revolution into armed entities that oppose the legitimacy and the internationally recognized Yemeni government.
Analysts differ in the repercussions of these projects on the future of Yemen, according to the external and regional polarizations interfering in the depth of the conflict.
They believe that the Yemeni scene has become complicated, and those who control it are the countries of the region, not the local forces, and this makes the end of the war in the foreseeable future difficult, unless there is a comprehensive regional reconciliation that includes the parties to the real conflict (Iran-Saudi Arabia), and then a Yemeni reconciliation.
The Yemeni army besieges the strategic city of Haradh in preparation for its liberation from the Houthis in Hajjah Governorate (Anatolia)
weakening the power of the government
Military expert Ali al-Dhahab describes the current situation in Yemen as proceeding according to scenarios developed and maps published in 2018 to divide Saudi Arabia into 5 countries and Yemen into two countries.
He pointed out that "the scheme has become a reality in Yemen with the emergence of signs of secession and is on its way to dividing the country."
Al-Dhahab said - in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net - that the policy pursued by the coalition to establish armed entities with a separatist ideology outside the authority of the state weakened this authority, and led to the failure to find an army capable of suppressing any movement that would secession.
Therefore, the government failed to confront the transitional coup in August 2019 in Aden, as well as the repercussions of this coup.
Military expert Ali al-Dhahab provides an additional explanation for the factors that led to the emergence of the secession project, most notably “the establishment of an actual authority for the separatists in Aden, which the Riyadh Agreement granted many privileges without having obligations to implement the security and military annex, and this brings them closer to their goal, which is to return to what is before 1990".
disintegration of the state
Regarding what will happen to the situation in Yemen, the head of the Abaad Center for Studies and Research, Abdul Salam Muhammad, believes that the separation will not be safe now, “there are fears of the disintegration of the state among a group of forces and that the matter will not stop at the borders of the division between north and south as it was a year ago. 1990".
Muhammad - in an interview with Al Jazeera Net - said that there are divisions within the regions in the north and south;
For example, in Hadhramaut and Al-Mahra, they are not inclined at all to secede in a state with Aden, Abyan and Al-Dhale.
Therefore, the head of the center says, "It is expected that if the separation occurs, the south will be divided into more than one entity, and the north will not stay with Sanaa because the eastern regions are now governing themselves through the government in Riyadh and Aden."
In Abd al-Salam Muhammad’s belief, it is natural in any war that separatist, regional, ethnic and sectarian tendencies emerge. Nevertheless, in his opinion, Yemen was able to keep the social fabric a little cohesive, especially in the face of the Houthi project versus the Saudi-backed government.