It has been a long time since a country was surrounded from three sides in Europe.
With his maneuvers in Belarus, the deployment of troops on his own border with Ukraine and the closure of large sea areas in the Black Sea, Putin is demonstrating his military power to the neighboring country.
It had been foreseeable for a few weeks that something like this would happen, but the psychological impact on Ukraine and the western political class should still be significant.
The NATO Secretary General speaks of a "dangerous moment", the French Foreign Minister of a "gesture of great violence".
Diplomatic in attack mode
You don't want to contradict them.
Putin, who only recently described Ukraine as "my beauty" who must comply, continues to act in attack mode on the diplomatic stage.
His foreign minister sharply attacked the British minister in Moscow in front of the cameras.
That doesn't make it any easier for the governments in Europe and Washington to classify the small signs of a willingness to talk that the Russian side gave during Macron's visit to the Kremlin.
Is Putin just rattling his saber to improve his negotiating position, or is he preparing for the invasion?
The high costs, which would not only be imposed by the prospect of Western sanctions, but also by the war itself, still speak against the latter.
The West has chosen not to defend Ukraine itself.
This is reasonable given the difficult strategic situation, but gives Putin more leeway than would be the case with a NATO member in Eastern Europe.
The Europeans are trying to compensate for this with diplomacy.
There are some issues on which a new agreement would theoretically be possible, in the Donbass as well as on armaments issues.
Whether Putin has any interest in this at all can be seen, among other things, from whether he withdraws from Belarus again.